Mike: Tlar, the GOI has backed off of the ration card cancellation this weekend, the cards will continue to be used at least until they bring more value to the IQD.
There has been no movement on 140 that I know of, the Kurd's as late as last week stated that there is still a large gap between the two parties. I don't know how the 2013 budget effects the rv......
I'm confident they'll pass it but it really has no bearing on our investment, does it? And that leaves us with Chapter 7....the elusive twice a year joke that is always at the expense of the Iraqi people.
I do not believe Chapter 7 will be lifted until they have a functioning, fully seated government. The Kuwaiti's seem to be happy but the UN will not release them from sanctions until power is distributed preventing actions similiar to the previous regime.
It seems a lot of folks believe that Shabibi will not return to Iraq, essentially giving up on any hope of habeus corpus in Iraq. Hashimi was accused of terrorism and death squads.....
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MIKE CONTINUES: Shabibi has been accused of money laundering.....it seems like a pretty big gap in severity. Maliki does not get to appoint the next CBI governor, that's the Central Bank and Parliaments job.
I for one believe we need Shabibi back,, we're in the middle of a highly complex process and you can't just plug someone else in and expect results without major delays. (which I don't believe Iraq can withstand)
We've already seen where the banks are staying out of the auction, investors are pulling there money out of the country and investors are still staying away from Iraq.
I know Shabibi is just one man but boy is he a very important cog in this process. I don't see Shabibi fading away....he's in the news everyday and now he's Skyping with the banking association in Iraq.
I'm hoping Shabibi comes back, and soon, I don't see anyone else capable of fixing the economy in Iraq. JMO :) MIKE
TLAR: Mike, Article 140 is now being discussed as its own territory which seems to be the answer for both the Kurds as well as Bagdad. I understand your feeling when it comes to Chapter VII but this is the first time Kuwait is touting "all issues resolved, demarcation of borders, compensation to be reinvested back into Iraq and a settlement of the Kuwaiti airline issue.
IMHO it will be hard to continue to keep Iraq under Chapter VII from this point on because the only thing left was the issue involving Kuwait. Iraq has promised to continue to try to locate and repatriate remains of Kuwaiti's back to Kuwait.
Kuwait knows its time to release Iraq and the Imir has stated he will support Iraq at the UNSC.
As far as the Kurds and Bagdad, yes there is and most likely will be a large gap between them and Bagdad. The HCL will silence most of their complaints.
Remember, the Kurds are autonomous and once issues of profit sharing are law, they will pick and choose what battles they will fight with Bagdad. The Kurds will always be critical of Bagdad.
As far as Shabibi and the removal of the zeros goes, this is a process that he designed and is all but complete. Banks that are to exchange have been picked and armed with counterfiet detector, 10 banks 10 machines.
Smalls are being printed and the old smalls never released can be used. Remember it was Shabibi who told the Kurds that he would include their language on the new small currency presently being printed.
Maliki could just release what is already there ignoring Shabibis pledge altogether. Education of the people and legislation against gouging is already in place and has been for awhile.
Instructions on banks responsibility if they buy counterfiet currency has be established. Companies such as Rueters have contracts that have been in force since late 2009.
So it is more than feasible that this could be done by Turkri. I'm sure that there are unfinished parts to the plan but if you are a good painter it is more than possible to complete a painting by another artist assuming its the same style and enough has been done to be able to visualize the outcome.
I have not seen any article on Iraq taking back their pledge to the IMF to stop the ration card. That is not to say that it has not been said. I was on vacation last week and my reading was spotty but if as you have said , the article states "until they raise the value of the dinar" I find nothing wrong with this because first, they got a lot of outcry by announcing a date of March of last year and two, the people don't have a clue as to what the exchange rate will do.
So I see this this as not a bad thing to publically say "not until we raise the value of the dinar" and rescinding an actual published date. This for the time being calms the outcrys. When they raise the value they will stop the ration cards. Thanks Mike for your thoughts. TLAR
MIKE: Thanks for the reply Tlar....I appreciate it. Check the economy section of the DA sight and you'll see a weeks worth of backsliding from Maliki and his crew about not cancelling the ration card.
I don't think it would have mattered anyway, the IMF asked them to stop subsidies related to food and oil and all Maliki did was say ok, we'll get rid of the ration card and give them dinars instead, which is still a subsidies program.
I hope you're right, but Chapter 7 is designed to protect the neighbors of Iraq from possible military actions as well and I don't see how they can release Iraq from these sanctions until they have replaced the previous dictatorship with a democracy. Iraq currently has a democracy in name but not in action.
The whole world knows how conflicted the country is politically, Maliki runs off to sign an arms deal with Russia with no Parliamentary approval is just one example. (of course the arms deal is off now)
How can the UN really turn Iraq loose with Maliki in charge of security and no functioning power sharing program in place? JMO :) MIKE