Guys and Gals:
While we wait for this to happen in the still of the night, here is something to chew on…
I have often talked about how I am logical and have done my due diligence regarding this RV, andhave tried to convince myself through research that a 4000 % profit is not only possible, but logicaland probable.
Here is some information about our investment and why I have been saying it supportsat least a buck right now.
As Tony says: “I can Guarantee you 100 thousand per cent!” A year ago,
I did not believe this…I would have been happy with 50 cents! And I know there are lot of you skeptics out there who are not sure either…
One of the ways to value a country in USD is to take the amount of the M2 (hard currency plus shortterm bank deposits of $100,000 an under) and multiply it by the price of the currency…
Read More Link on Right
You can also use per capita calculations, and GDP, but I am going to KISS…for Iraq that would be 77 Trillion dinar times .0008, which means Iraq’s value is $66 Billion USD….surely Iraq supports a higher currencyrate?
Everyone argues that Iraq has to be on par with Kuwait…but remember, Kuwait has only 29.5 Billion M2, 1/10th the people, and $3.54 rate is logical…that equals $104 Billion USD… Russia has an M2 of 32 Trillion rubles, at $0.03 USD (3 cents!) So that is $992 Billion USD…The USA has an M2 of $14 trillion USD…
So now, we are hearing these high RV rates, $3.44, up to $27.87!!!! $3.44 times 77 trillion dinar puts Iraq’s value at $265 Trillion USD, and at $27.87, a whopping $2,145 Trillion USD…IMPOSSIBLE for sure…
So with these statistics in mind, do you see why it is so hard for experts, economists and Forex traders to believe that the IQD will revalue at anything more than a penny?
At a penny, with the M2 at 77 Trillion dinar, it puts the value at $770 Billion USD…remember Kuwait is at $29.5 Billion, with only 3 Million people, while Iraq has ten times that at 32 Million people…
How is this logically possible without a LOP or redenomination first? Oh Crap you say….
Okay, here’s the flip side to this: We all know Iraq is very rich in oil and other resources! ….They have proven oil reserves of at least 150 billion, ranking at least as high as fifth in the world.
Contrast that with China 26 billion ranked 12th, the US, at 25 billion, ranked 14th, and Japan, 44 million, ranked 79th. Some experts say Iraq may have over 300 billion in reserves, placing it ahead of Venezuela (297 billion) and Saudi Arabia (270 billion).
Key reason this is important is that it is estimated with a high degree of confidence to be commercially recoverable oil. Additionally, Iraq has very low production cost, at about on average about $5 to produce a barrel of oil in Iraq, compared to about $65 to produce a barrel of shale oil in the good ole USA! That makes Iraq the cheapest producer of oil in the World.
On May 19, 2003 we invaded Iraq. George W. Bush was President (January 20, 2001 – January 20, 2009) by November 2003, 8 months into the war, Iraq was pumping out 2 million barrels a day.
Today production is at 3.8 million barrels a day so put that in perspective. At $5 USD a barrel, that is a cost of $19 million USD a day; they sell it at the current rate of $103 per barrel, yielding a net of $374 million USD a day!
And that’s $134.7 Billion USD a year! That is 155.6 Trillion dinar a year!
As for Natural Gas, they have 3.6 trillion cubic meters proven reserves (no. 11) double of Kuwait (1.8 Trillion), 150 times more than Japan (21 Billion). They intend to produce 2 billion cubic feet per day.
That costs them $1.5 million USD to produce, and they make $20 million a day…that’s $7.3 Billion USD a year or 8.5 Trillion IQD a year.
And they have a lot of gold and silver and other minerals…They are estimated to raise their GDP by 9.4% annually to the year 2016…
And according to a report published in the “Wall Street Journal” August 2013, Iraq is in ninth place among the total natural resources in the world. Those resources are valued at $15.9 Trillion USD of oil, gas and phosphate. Russia was number one at $75.7 Trillion USD and the USA was 2nd at $45.55 Trillion USD…
Okay, (the finale): I do believe that the M2 is an inflated value now….Here’s why…
I’ve heard rumors that 16 or so countries including China and the US hold IQD in their foreign reserves…that is feasible because the Paris Club (which includes Austria, Australia, Belgium,Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, USA, England) forgave $32 billion, China wrote off $6.8 Billion, United Arab Emerites $7 Billion; I assume Kuwait took IQD to the tune of $21 Billion..
So that means, these countries have to be holding IQD…so here are the estimates of IQD held:
US: 4.8 Trillion
Other Paris Club 18: 32 Trillion
United Arab E: 8.1 Trillion
China: 7.9 Trillion
Kuwait : 24 Trillion
That means 76.8 Trillion is in these 22 countries reserves alone, I can assume…,So I’d say the M2 is more like a Trillion dinar not including these countries…
So at a buck, Iraq is worth $1 Trillion USD, and with the Article above stating that Iraq has a resources value of $15.9 Trillion, does that mean maybe we can get a $15.90 RV?
YES…no LOP, no RD needed…
So there you have it, I have logically convinced myself that a double digit RV is not only possible, but probable…
I have come a long way, ‘cause I could not wrap my brain around it 6 months ago! I was basically Adam Montana, but better looking…LOL
God Bless --------- Blackbird136