Wally : Good one SWFG! One thing I would love to see is more folks looking at the macro economic issues as it pertains to Iraq. Without an infrastructure that provides goods and services for citizens to purchase with thei new found wealth...there is NOT going to be an RV! Why would Iraq RV so people could make imported goods the only way to spend money. They need to keep the wealth in Iraq.
SWFloridaGuy : Hello Wally. I like where your head's at and these are the kind of intelligent discussions I enjoy. This is the kind of constructive dialogue that would help us all come to better conclusions. I tend to think that infrastructure is very important but that despite the fact that Iraq needs to overcome some challenges relating to infrastructure (which you were astutely picked up on), institutional reform, hydrocarbon sector, political stability and security, their economic reforms can procede regardless.
Iraq's GDP growth for 2012 was 11.1% Reuters reported that Iraq is the 2nd fastest growing economy in 2012 with $170 billion. Excluding the oil sector the economy is expected to grow by at least 9.4%. The latest report to US Congress forecasts Iraq's GDP growth 3x that of the next strongest MENA economy. In the 70s when Iraq's currency held a much higher value GDP only ranged from $2 billion - $8 billion.
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I don't think we should underestimate Iraq's wealth. Even excluding the oil sector the economy is expected to grow by at least 9.4%. Let's not forget that oil is quickly becoming second in Iraq to gold. Early in 2012 there was a large discovery of Gold in eastern Baghdad. The last couple years have produced large quantities of gold atoms in the soil through their vast drilling operations.
They actually raised thousands of tons of dust, which was set aside for the purification and extraction process. This discovery, among others, could turn Iraq into a producer of gold more than oil. It has also will increase the prices of real estate due to the influx of gold job seekers.
Iraq currently has $60 billion in foreign currency reserves. In the 70s, when their former currency boasted a much larger value, Iraq's foreign reserves were only 35 billion. As CBI reserves grow, so does their credibility.
I'm not here to prove to you that Iraq will RV but I have come to the conclusion (after over 2 years of non stop research) that the NID will reach former levels the former IQD saw decades prior. Check out these documents and I'm sure you will come to a similar conclusion.
Iraq has many options and there is no doubt it's just a matter of time (in my opinion of course). I also recognize that the CBI has many options and I certainly don't have the arrogance to pretend to know which options they will choose. I do think this will be our year though (finally), only time will tell. We'll find out together.
Read these documents, they apply to Iraq's new international role and possible large currency appreciation options they have. You may find that you come to similar encouraging conclusions.
If you'd like I can provide many more, these are just a few.