5-19-13 SWFloridaGuy (Forum Discussion): War Eagle, thanks for the response but here's my feelings on the subject:
After all these years many intel providers continue to maintain that according to their contacts this has been out of Iraq's hands for years and that Iraq's upcoming economic reforms are not about the country of Iraq because this is really about the PTB, good guys vs bad guys, etc. (notice they never provide details).
Believe me I sure do wish their theories contained an ounce of tenability, considering with over 72 in-country RVs and counting I would be a very wealthy individual.
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However, is utter nonsense in my opinion. This has everything to do with Iraq and I don't know how many years have to pass before people realize that their secret contacts were off the mark and all is not done, but rather that this is a work in progress that is not on our time-frame. Iraq must have enough political stability to ensure the success of the economic reforms.
That is not to say that they are not receiving a lot of help and instruction from powerful entities like the IMF, World Bank, U.S., China and many powerful corporations; of course they are, but if you know anything about currency reform and revaluations in particular, stability is absolutely key and if the conditions are not right the country will fall apart. Usually, somewhere in a range of about 3 to 5 years.
If you don't believe that the economic reforms being delayed were due to the political unrest then you don't believe what the UNSC has said in open session, the IMF and World Bank have said in countless meetings, SIGR reported to our Congress, the Finance Committee and even the CBI itself all listed as the preeminent imbroglio which must be rectified before they can move forward.
Clearly, they are talking about political stability and this has nothing to do with car bombings or rock throwing. There will always be those sort of tensions in that region.
The CBI's plan (whatever that may be) has been in the works for over a decade and they are not going to compromise its success because the GOI hasn't formed a fully functioning power-sharing government with permanent (not interim) ministers appointed, in addition to having implemented HCL/Article 140 (which they have been making real progress towards of late) and investment laws passed prior.
If you look at the history of large currency appreciations, you will see this stability has been absolutely vital in every single case and until that stability was reached, nothing happened. Nominal appreciation must lead to sustained real appreciation. Economic policy is influenced by international capital markets and central banks.
I believe this has always been a team effort and not solely in Iraq's hands or out. For Iraq to recover after decades of war, reassert monetary sovereignty, dedollarize and give Iraqi citizens confidence in their own currency once again as I said, yes, they have received a lot of help.
Corporations, foreign governments, banks and powerful organizations have all aided in Iraq's reconstruction and invested heavily into sector growth because they also see Iraq's potential. Confidence that an economy is strong and the faith that strength will continue are also contributing factors that lead to recommendations by the powerful entities I formerly mentioned.
The question is how to improve on that front and which direction is the proper path to take that will succor all invested parties and maintain a policy that supports long term economic stability and not just the short term advantages that a RV may incur.
If Iraq wants to control of their market zone and have their currency used in international banking transactions then they are going to need to raise the value of their currency, go international, which may finally appease the requirements of the WTO thereby meeting the necessary requirements for full accession.
So, does the country of Iraq have anything to do with their own currency? Of course they do and it is completely arrogant and ignorant for us to think that they don't. But don't take my word for it, look at the history of large currency appreciations and the role that sustainable growth played.
Countries that couldn't maintain stability showed negative effects after 2-3 years even with 10% 30% revaluations. Iraq has received a lot of help to get to where they are today and I believe that they will continue to because those same corporations, foreign governments, banks and powerful organizations all want to exploit Iraq's wealth and natural resources. That's all the more reason to protect their investment and ensure that its success won't be hampered by a dilapidated government.