_ [B.I.W.]hey mr rich
[B.I.W.]you were talking about pips
[B.I.W.]this doc is a good 1
[B.I.W.]now every body talks about the forex
[B.I.W.]but the forex is where the little boy play
[B.I.W.]i found this old doc enoch
[B.I.W.] What moves exchange rates? I
•Exchangerates are determined by supply and
•Supplyand demand for currencies depends on:
–Domesticand foreign interest rates
•Importanceof each factor can change over time.
[B.I.W.]What moves exchange rates? II
Andersen,Bollerslev, Diebold, and Vega (2003)
Faust,Rogers, Wang and Wright (2003)
–Positivemacroeconomic news strengthens dollar
[Enoch8]Any number of conditions , based on the Exchange Rate Regime Policiesof that Central Bank.
[Enoch8]They are all different.
[Enoch8]The IMF Lists the types of Regimes.
[Enoch8]Iraq has been on typically a Fixed Peg Regime.
[B.I.W.]some time i wonder if all know that the forex is the small guy in thetrading of currencys in the world
[Enoch8]The US.... Japan and Switzerland are on Free Floats.
[Enoch8]Forex is an interesting topic concerning rate changes andadjustments.
[B.I.W.]the ebs lookslike they are the real traders
[Enoch8]It is possible that Forex can be a Supply vs Demand Factor, but doesNOT.... I repeat DOES NOT Drive the market, as Okie suggests.
[*Tenmillion]Enoch8 which of these factors would apply to the IQD?
[Enoch8]Iraq does a number of typical internal adjustments....
[Enoch8]1. They can increase the Foreign Reserves or Decrease them to makeadjustments against market forces....
[Enoch8]A decrease for example is called Sterilization.
Read More Link on Right
_[Enoch8]2. They can manuver interest rates, but IRaq is not strong in thatsuit, as of yet....
[3-BALL]so the high auctions are ?
[Enoch8]3. They increase or decrease circulation according to Supply vsDemand and Market influences.
[Enoch8]Increase is called Capitalization or Monitization of Liquidity....
[Enoch8]A decrease is call contraction.
[Enoch8]All these factors are what determines the actual strength of anynation's currency, based on the strength of it's bank and bondsmarkets
[Enoch8]In a Fixed Peg Regime, the Exchange Rate is held stable by thesefactors by adjusting them up or down.
[B.I.W.]and confidence in the currency
[Enoch8]In a Crawling Peg or a Banded Peg..... the rate is managed to adesired level as the market determines, but only as allowed by theCentral Bank, who determines that as part of the actual Regime.
[Enoch8]Banded is like crawling, but is restricted and limited to a set % ofincrease or decrease over a set peroid of time.
[B.I.W.]hey enoch here is a us state department email dec 13 2007
[Enoch8]Managed floats are like LOndon, China and Russia....
[B.I.W.]Classified By: Economic Section Deputy James Freund, reasons 1.4 b,d1. (C) SUMMARY: Demand for the dinar has risen this past week inresponse to the holiday period, a reported drop in imported goodprices in Baghdad due to an appreciating dinar against the dollar andimproved security, and speculation among money traders of a suddenappreciation of the dinar that occurred around this time last year.How the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) handles growing demand for thedinar will be critical, especially in terms of expectationsmanagement and injecting dinar liquidity into the market This is anencouraging development for Iraq and reflects a vote of confidence byIraqis in their domestic economy and the government's monetarypolicies. END SUMMARY.
[B.I.W.]so even in 2007
[Enoch8]thos are like free floats but are more restricted by internal controlof the above mentioned factors, among others.
[B.I.W.]they were aware of us
[Enoch8]Did that answer for you Ten?
[*Tenmillion]yes, thank you Enoch8
[3-BALL]so 4 points in 3 years is like "snurtle crawling"
[B.I.W.]COMMENT: How the CBI handles growing demand for the dinar will becritical, in particular on expectations management and injectingdinar liquidity into the market. The TF-BSO consultant notes the CBIis taking this situation very seriously, and when she was at the CBIthis morning all the key managers were going to a meeting on theissue. She also said she had never seen such a long line of armoredtrucks snaking around the block waiting to get dinars in her entirethree years consulting with the CBI. The CBI also issued an immediatepress release today to dispel the rumors of sudden appreciation to1,000 dinar per dollar or lobbing off any zeros to the exchange rate.The CBI's foreign currency auction's daily volume has fluctuated, butnot substantially diminished.
[Enoch8]OK..... BIW...... that article is about demand on the streets andwith respective dealers.
[B.I.W.]this is the only time the cbi has issues a story about the (ooo)
[Enoch8]It has nothing to do with world market forces, because it is directdemand on trades and exchanges and does not represent actual buyingpower, but factors trade spreads. and a different kind of demand,somewhat like the effect of Forex markets.
[Enoch8]They again...... Do NOT Drive the Market.
[B.I.W.]so you think the iqd will have to be careful on how it makes it moves
[Enoch8]Reduction of Zeros is a common practice of many countries who reducecirculation by getting an assigned new ISO and issue a new currencyand monetize that,while contracting and demonetizing an oldercurrency.
[Enoch8]That is called Redenomination and is a lop..... unless there is aliquidity increase, supported by a bonding of debt, authorized bythat respective government.
[Enoch8]that might allow a greater exchange than 1000 to 1 in a case likeIRaq.
[Enoch8]It means simply, that the Old IQD units will be worth 1 /1000 of thevalue of the new units.
[Enoch8]The way we might prosper, is IF the GOI can Bond enough liquidity toincrease the value of the monetary base enough, to justify giving abetter exchange ratio than 1000 to 1
[Enoch8]Like Germany did in part, with certain restrictions and time limits,in the Marshall Plan.
[Enoch8]That in effect accomplishes contraction of the monetary circulation,while at the same time, increasing it's value overall.
[Enoch8]The estimated cost projected in the new CBIplan is about $130Million.
[Enoch8]That is one of the issues Parliament must approve and authorize MOFto instruct CBI and cover that cost.
[Enoch8]CBI does not pay for that.
[Enoch8]It must be set in the GOI Budget
[Enoch8]I doubt if the IMF Partners are going to pay for it, this time asthey did in 2003.
[3-BALL]ya think they can afford it with the countries who keep forgivingdebt
[Enoch8]Sure they can
[B.I.W.]here i'm share some thing i found
[B.I.W.]take a look at this E
[B.I.W.]alway been talk about who payed for the dinar to get printed
[B.I.W.]it all started here
[B.I.W.][B.I.W.] it all started here
[B.I.W.]IRAQ: Madrid Donor Conference Author: Esther Pan October 30, 2003
[B.I.W.]Spain: $300 million through 2007;
[B.I.W.]this is the only doc i have ever found that talks about paying forthe printing of the iraqi dinar
[B.I.W.]SUBJECT: SPAIN: FULFILLS IRAQI DINAR DONATION PLEDGE REF: MADRID 2397The Spanish Council of Ministers approved the donation of EUR 14.4million (USD 17.4 million) on July 16 to finance the production ofthe new Iraqi dinar. This allocation of funds will fulfill Spain'spledge of USD 18 million for production of Iraqi dinars during2004-2005, promised at the Madrid Donor's Conference. Thisdisbursement is a further sign of Spain's intention to fulfill itsUSD 300 million commitment to Iraq reconstruction (reftel). ARGYROS
[B.I.W.]i think this proves spain did
[B.I.W.]for atleast 2004 2005
[Enoch8]Yes BIW..... it proves the coalitions paid for the original changeover and over saw all of it.
[Enoch8]We have had UST agents embeddied from the start.
[B.I.W.]Year 2004 (some of which has been disbursed) Total: $ 60 millionIRFFI: $ 20 million (Min. Econ) IFC Small Business Facility: $ 5million (Min. Econ) Production of Iraqi Dinars: $18 million (Min.Econ) Not programmed: $ 17 million (Min. Econ and MFA) 5. (U) Years2005-2007 (Note: this allocation is notional and will likely change)Total: $ 140 million Ministry of Economy non-reimbursable creditlines (FAD): $75 million Bilateral donations (MFA*Spanish Agency forInternational Development): $ 55 Nonspecific technical assistance: $10 million (Min. Econ and MFA)
[Enoch8]It may have been printed and inventoried at perhaps BIS or even a USFed Bank..... all along and was all paid for in advance?
[3-BALL]so who then paid for the rest of the years of 30 trillion ?
[Enoch8]Not sure on that 3ball
[B.I.W.]or at least some
[Enoch8]It could have also been covered by funds and simply repayed by thesecountries over time, by agreement.
[3-BALL]but is it 150 million a year for 3 trillion in dinar since 2003
[B.I.W.]it cost 140 million to print 6.38 Trillion in 2003
[Enoch8]They only delivered 6.38 BIW
[Enoch8]How do you know that did not cover all of what could have as easilyhave been stored by the contracted printers?
[Enoch8]I understood in the beginning, that the US Treasury and Fed Reservewere involved along with Central London and Bank of INternationalSettlements.
[B.I.W.]so i have alway wondered something
[B.I.W.]on the forex
[Enoch8]How do we know, they did not simply warehouse 'Inventory' during thattime?
[B.I.W.]Countries We are unable to send funds to the following countries:Afghanistan, Belarus, Burma, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republicof Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Cuba, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Lebanon,Liberia, Libya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria,Zimbabwe.
[B.I.W.]so i started looking
[Enoch8]But.... there may be a clue.
[B.I.W.]ofac list before they could get off the forex ban list
[Enoch8]CBI Law defines Inventory as not being a liability of actualcirculation
[B.I.W.]i have always wondered this
[B.I.W.]Countries We are unable to send funds to the following countries:Afghanistan, Belarus, Burma, Democratic , Republic of Congo, Coted'Ivoire, Cuba, Iran,Iraq, NorthKorea, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan,Syria, Zimbabwe.
[B.I.W.]this is the list of banned countrys on the forex
[Enoch8]OK.... do I understand you to be asking if this OZ forex trader notsupporting Iraq trading has to do with our investment?
[*Tenmillion]Why is Iraq on that list?
[Enoch8]It is OZ Trader policy.
[Enoch8]Has nothing to do with central bank trading, really.
[*Tenmillion]what do they have in common with N. Korea and Iran?
[Enoch8]all that means is that that one clearing house cannot deal in thatcurrency at this time.
[B.I.W.]all those countrys are on this list
[Enoch8]They are still IMF Art IV Consultations and on a Art XIV agreement.
[Enoch8]It restricts international trading
[Enoch8]They have to be Art VIII compliant to be a recognized trading partnerand currency on international banking.
[B.I.W.]im asking do you think they needto be off those lists to move towardsare goal
[Enoch8]That also is the set standard for WTO final accession for all oilproducing nations, as well.
[Enoch8]Yes to that last question, BIW
[B.I.W.]i think we are on the right path
[3-BALL]I do also
[Enoch8]there are some lists involved and it applies directly to US TreasuryIssues..... OFAC and 13303, 13315, 13350 and 13364..... and aredefined as the very basis of UNSC Resolutions 1483, (Memory) and allthat apply with the UN Chap 7.
[Enoch8]That was the US President who unilaterally made those EOs and the UNMUltilaterally adopted them.
[Enoch8]Ohhh heck yes.... we are surely on the right path
[B.I.W.]some may not know
[B.I.W.]but the us gov has done a slick move
[3-BALL]more than I can remember
[B.I.W.]with those enoch
[Enoch8]You better believe they did, B
[B.I.W.]DATES: Effective Date: September 13, 2010. DOCUMENT SUMMARY: TheDepartment of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control(``OFAC'') is adding the Iraq Stabilization and Insurgency SanctionsRegulations as a new part to the Code of Federal Regulations, toimplement Executive Order 13303 of May 22, 2003, Executive Order13315 of August 28, 2003, Executive Order 13350 of July 29, 2004,Executive Order 13364 of November 29, 2004, and Executive Order 13438of July 17, 2007. [[Page 55464]
[Enoch8]Anyone around after 911 can recall how Russia, France, Germany andChina squacked about those EOs
[Enoch8]But those guys were all in bed with Saddam stealing oil for foodmoney and had their own contracts with Saddam go bad.
[Enoch8]Right...TY again BIW.... you rock!
[*Tenmillion]I remember France for sure
[Enoch8]Those were all under US the authority of presidential declaration ofEconomic Emergy Act
[Enoch8]Ya..... what was that crust old bastards name in France?
[B.I.W.]this is why sometimes i feel they just let iraq act like they are incontrol
[*Tenmillion]I remember France for sure
[Enoch8]LOL.... we all boycotted Brie and French wine.... LMAO
[Enoch8]Not just that BIW.... go deep
[Enoch8]They also allow the UN to think they are actually running something!
[Enoch8]That is a very interesting thing that happened.... because it meansafter 3 solid years.... shabs has held up his end of the IMF Art XIVagreements.
[Enoch8]He proved he could hold it locked witout signifigant inflation for 3years as on Jan 2012.
[Enoch8]It means he has shifted the regime back to a crawling peg ?
[Enoch8]I think so.
[Enoch8]That is significant by itself
[JayP]Enoch, is it true then that this is why we saw them make the change 3years to the date
[B.I.W.]can he just flip back at any time
[Enoch8]It also means he can set a new monetary policy with a 2 year statedobjective.
[Enoch8]That is good news for us.... because that allows additional valueincreases based on stated objectives.
[3-BALL]which are what now ?
[3-BALL]stated objectives ?
[Enoch8]He already held 1170..... he is done with that agreement.... IOW....proved IRaq has the strength as an Emerging Market Economy to beallowed to do a 2 year stated objective...
[Enoch8]that translates into allowable increases in liquidity and balance ofthe allowable circulation can be dramatically increased, from $26Billion in US Value.....
[Enoch8]That translates to a greater potential yield if you hold dinar.....IF the Parliament will just approve the Government Bonds to increasethe liquidity.
[*Tenmillion] Thank you Enoch8 !