Charlie & DS Member Chat: The PetroDollar & Black Swans Part 2
Charlie: i don't want to waste anyone's time with the oil subject but in view of the petrodollar system, its easy to see that oil's value extends beyond energy
Charlie: it's truly an amazing commodity but one that is currently under the power of the US
Charlie: the dollar is not only backed by oil, but by lots of military might to enforce the petrodollar into existence
Charlie: so this all sounds like doom and gloom... not what i came here for charlie
Charlie: NO ITS NOT! not doom and gloom
Charlie: you see, there is something in life called a black swan
Charlie: ever see one?
Charlie: well up until the 1690's no one did except some australians
Charlie: there's another black swan that's not an animal though
Charlie: which one did you see harry? the animal?
Charlie: according to the theory we all one
harry: at a zoo
tudor: thats cool harry
Charlie: the black swan was termed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Charlie: you see, no one ever saw a black swan throughout history so everyone thought all swans were white
Charlie: until the black swan was observed
Charlie: the black swan i'm talking about is this
Charlie: it is is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Charlie: we are all hoping for a black swan here
tudor: yes we are
Charlie: the dinar shooting up in value would be a black swan
Charlie: truth is a few of us were expecting or predicting it so not such a black swan to us but to the world, it would be different
Charlie: but lets look deeper at the black swan
Charlie: 1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
Charlie: 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
Charlie: 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.
Charlie: these are three things explained by the black swan
Charlie: criteria for a black swan event
Charlie: The event is a surprise (to the observer).
Charlie: The event has a major effect.
Charlie: After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
Charlie: the black swan theory was developed with financial purposes in mind
Charlie: but has expanded to the things mentioned about like events and technology
Charlie: Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer.
Charlie: the black swan event for a turkey, isn't one for the butcher
Charlie: WE DON'T WANT TO BE THE TURKEY!
Charlie: the world we live in right now is wound very very tightly
Charlie: i believe we will see many black swans in the days to come
Charlie: 9/11 is an event that is classified as a black swan
Charlie: certainly horrific but i'm not referring to violence
Charlie: at least not physical, though the threat of war is probably greater now than it has been since the Cold War
Charlie: black swans were originally viewed as financial in nature
Charlie: if you are following the 1st level chessboard, you wouldn't see the black swan until it landed on your head
harry: that almost anyting can turn in to a black swan
Charlie: yes harry
Charlie: the stock markets are SOARING!!!
Charlie: YIPPEE! - they were also soaring up to 2007-2008
tudor: oh yes, then...
harry: we did have a black swan in our stock market not to long ago
Charlie: looking back at what the banking system was doing, that was black swan waiting to happen
Charlie: easy to see in hindsight
Charlie: the problem is WE ARE TOO BUSY GOING ABOUT OUR LIVES LIKE WE SHOULD BE, FEEDING BABIES, WORKING JOBS, TAKING CARE OF PARENTS!
Charlie: WE SHOULDN'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT BLACK SWANS!
Charlie: but there is a good side to the black swan
Charlie: prepare for it and you're the butcher
Charlie: you get to eat turkey!
Charlie: but if you don't prepare....
Charlie: you ARE the turkey
harry: yes turkey is better to eat than duck
Charlie: i like both
Charlie: my point is this...
russell: better than swan
tudor: turkey on the platter for me!
Charlie: it's hard to see the black swan
Charlie: never had swan... yet
harry: obamacare could be black swan
Charlie: it's hard to see the black swan, otherwise it wouldn't be a black swan
Charlie: there is so much work to do
Charlie: we are surrounded by some amazing people in the dinar community
harry: yes we are
Charlie: and don't think for once that your dinars aren't worth anything
Charlie: in a black swan event, they could be worth so much more
tudor: lets hope so
FITTER 1: Howdy Charlie Harry Tudor and all, glad we have this back
Charlie: hi fitter!
harry: they are worth more today that what i paid for the one i own
Charlie: in it's current attachment to the dollar, i'm a little nervous
harry: hi fitter
Charlie: but you think the iraqis are going to go down with the dollar if it collapses?
Charlie: NO WAY
FITTER 1: Iran is the wild card in this game now.
Charlie: Iran in a major part of the chessboard as is Syria
harry: the dollar is choice of all trade
Charlie: as is Ukraine
Charlie: as is a few other places we will discuss
Charlie: we have time folks but not a whole lot of it
Charlie: we need to start looking in the right places to see the moves being made
Charlie: i love to hear of progress INSIDE iraq but that's not where this is going to happen
Charlie: it will be outside in places you couldn't have imagined
guardian: do we really know how the dollar stands, it seems like an in-depth subject of study
Charlie: i wish i could spend all night here and detail out so much more but i need to close soon
Charlie: i will be back on here doing lots of chats, probably two or three a day
Charlie: i will post them on the forum so everyone can see them
Charlie: i need to get the old chat back so we can do more than just chat
tudor: you are going to post these yourself then Charlie?
Charlie: i need to share lots of links and articles and point you all to the places we can all look
Charlie: for now, i need to orient you
Charlie: yes i will tudor
tudor: oh ok hon
Charlie: i need to clean up but i will not change anything that is being said here
Charlie: i'm sorry to be so general but we need to take a good look at 25,000 feet
FITTER 1: The links I look forward to seeing
tudor: thats ok Charlie, we are learning this way
Charlie: if i don't connect you, i fear many would just bypass this
FITTER 1: new material is always welcome
tudor: agree FITTER 1
harry: iraq is like a bee hives they have to mant queen and not enough worker
Charlie: we're still at the table of contents
Charlie: i will be back on here very early tomorrow morning
Charlie: i will post the chat and begin creating a system on the forum for you to ask questions
Charlie: please do ask, if i don't know the answer, we will find it
Charlie: be safe and have a blessed evening!
harry: yes and you also charlie
tudor: Charlie, your a blessing to us! Thank you
Busyman: thank you
W8n2cashin: Thank you Charlie
b1955: Thanks Charlie for the chat I got in late and looking forward to reading the chat.
Charlie: you are all welcome
Guardian: Charlie, thanks for the links. Can we get out of this viscious cycle? Is there any hope? Opinion please... Is the Federal Reserve Printing Money?
The Fed Is Not Printing Money, It's Doing Something Much Worse
Charlie: Guardian, you are hitting a very big nail on the head with your post. I've not gotten to the level of banking, but for the most part, these are the puppeteers of the other levels. If you want answers to just about anything (except God), you have to follow the money trail. All the money leads back to the central bankers.
To best understand this I will give everyone a serious homework assignment. Watch this video:
Published on Jul 6, 2014 TRANSCRIPT AND RESOURCES: http://www.corbettreport.com/federalr...
What is the Federal Reserve system? How did it come into existence? Is it part of the federal government? How does it create money? Why is the public kept in the dark about these important matters? In this feature-length documentary film, The Corbett Report explores these important question and pulls back the curtain on America's central bank.
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