Islandg1211: This has been my only time frame that I personally focused on. I felt that April 2016 was the "targeted" window for the Monetary Reform. I didn't look at 2015.
My opinion was based on the IMF's historical pattern of RVing the end of April, the renewed commitment of the U.S. and IMF to influence Iraq, the LOI to the IMF from the CBI, and the increased military involvement, which is a comprehensive plan that happened six months ago.
When Jack Lew co-signed for Iraq's debt last week, I was very encouraged, feeling that the date and rate had been set.
The extended long weekend was something that Shabibi needed and we now have through Wednesday.
Inflation has been under control. The banking restructure is complete. Every one of these things that I listed as a basis for my opinion that this was the targeted timeframe is factual and Not based on anyone's "Intel."
Having said that, Frank and his team of professionals are focusing on this same time frame based on their own data and reasons.
This is a good thing when different people from different sources are converging on the same expected time frame. "It will get to the point where they can't hide it anymore."
What is Shaibi's plan?
"The conditions need to be right" according to Shabibi's plan, including security, stability, and possibly Maliki arrested.
Where are we right now with each of those issues? That's the real question.
It's hard to tell from just news reports because each of those areas would involve some needed discretion. No one wants to give ISIS, the problem politicians, nor Maliki too much of a heads up.
What we still don't have is not only the liberation of Mosul, but also a political agreement for its governance post liberation. However, the U.S. military has certainly made tremendous progress in softening the target (by the time the non-US ground militias go house-to-house and full liberation happens, the U.S. will have already dealt with much of ISIS forces, (IMO.)
But the credit will be given to the group that finishes the job and the locals can view as their rescuers.
The U.S. wants a say in this political decision. The Coalition forces have taken the surrounding villages, control the access in and out of Mosul, are killing snipers, bombing their money and leaders, finding a cache of IEDs, etc. IMO, the fact that who will liberate Mosul is now being pressed implies that now Mosul is ready to be taken.
Security is waiting for a political decision, and not being delayed because of ISIS forces. Do we have enough security to proceed with the Monetary Reform?
IMO, perhaps, because the defeat of ISIS at this point is a matter of execution, time, troops, etc and not a matter of ISIS being a superior force, nor lack of US commitment.
It's at the point of being more of a political issue rather than a military issue. According to these news reports, particularly Bidon's stated purpose for being in Baghdad, the issue was not "Can we kick ISIS out of Mosul" but rather "which militia does the U.S. want to give the most credit to" and who will remain in Mosul.
IMO this implies Security is in sight, maybe not yet post liberation politics.
How much security does the CBI need?
Maybe just knowing that security will happen is enough, or maybe they want to wait until not only Mosul and Fallajuh are liberated, but Mosul is politically stable. I don't know, but IMO, the rebuilding phase needs to get started ASAP, which needs the RV.
Rebuilding and putting people back to work and allowing displaced people to return home and rebuild is the goal. Delay the RV, delay reconstruction.
With all the Monetary Reforms that have been done, plus the foreseeable security against ISIS, the remaining issue is stability within the GOI. We know Abadi has half his Ministers replaced.
Yesterday, he declared a State of Emergency. Today, he had the three presidencies back him up presumably doing it legally under Article 61 of the Constitution.
The ball is in your court Abadi. You have two more days of government Holiday.
Today, you curtailed any more possible protesting inside the Parliament.
Why? Because he doesn't need them anymore. They did their job and got him Article 61, so go home-IMO.
We just have to see what Abadi does next.
Will be step up to the plate and rule on his own and complete his government re-shuffle with technocrats and Implement the basket of laws to Accelerate the reforms and bring in the international Cooperation to rebuild now?
Or will he again try to get his GOI to vote themselves out of power and into jail while Sadre's protestors continues and the chaos goes on?
Let's hope not.