Thanks Memphis for sending this to us:
Full message/chat from Memphis at My Ladies Chat Room Mon. 8-31-15
Memphis: Years from now, when China is firmly the economic center of the world, and the powerhouse of the US is but a fading memory, people will be writing about it; and attempt to tell the story: How Did It Happen? We are daily seeing the answers as to the "why" and this article brought by MVL has a strong message; the "key" if you will:
"China Halts Market Intervention", this says it all.
I have pointed out many times that all attempts to stop (to smooth out) the business cycle by central planners always fail. In the end, the cycle always completes and the only question then is from what great height must we fall?
Having gone to the extremes for many years now the FED has insured that our fall will be long and steep but China?
There have been clear signs for over a week that they are choosing the wiser course; that they will take their losses in (much less painful and disruptive) increments and allow the business cycle it's natural ebbs and flows. This article is confirming and in the macro world it tells us which horse will win.
Why do smart men foolishly engage in such follies? MVL answered THAT...Yesterday...
It is all laid at the feet of greed.
note: it should be added here that when these historians write about the times we live in and "tell the story" of the greatest economic shifting to ever unfold in the history of the world that few will get it right; and few will even notice.
Sager: I highly doubt the US will be "a fading memory". They will still be part of the sdr basket along with China. I don't think it's possible to be part of the world reserve currencies of 5 and fade into the sunset...
Memphis: Consider tho that this cycle only presents about every 300 years. No one alive today has any point of reference to go on so we must look to history. History tells the story but we must lay aside our normalcy bias if we are to hear it.
Europeans are beginning to wake up but in America, not so much. (handshake)
MVL: Excellent thought, Memphis. Europe has a longer memory that knows "the majority must be wrong, before the opposite swing can start". (nerd)
Memphis: Like many ppl I am watching with interest for any signs that our leaders will choose the narrow path, the one seldom taking at such times but thus far there are zero indications that this time around is to be any different. NOT being pessimistic here! just pragmatic. (handshake)
DK: True Memphis. But history is a good tool to use. Hopefully we learn from the mistakes or "on purposes " by our former citizens.
As my mother has said so many times, when you do the same things over and over again and get the same incorrect results, that's insanity.
MVL: Agreed, Memphis. The narrow path won't be chosen because it's a lot easier to manipulate the status quo, and continue to kick the can down the road. The path of least resistance, if you will. As long as I get mine, I don't care about yours mentality.
Memphis: or as you said yesterday...with one word.....
Memphis: Armstrong has compiled a complete thesis on human nature and it's interaction with the business cycle. Tho we can fight and argue against it the fact still remains that man's nature controls and the same outcome is produced every single time with very little deviation.
Once the significance of this truly gets soaked into our DNA we can have great confidence in many things even while the majority are being tossed to and fro wondering where the wind is coming from!
DK : My personal thought is to be as grounded as possible, and learning what applies to my personal life and what I want to do to be a help to this world is of major importance to me. I truly appreciate your posts Memphis. TY
Memphis: Our hope (or at least mine personally) is that his (Armstrong's) message will fall upon ears that can truly effect change, ears that will not only listen but then do the right thing. There is always hope but we cannot base our decisions, our plans, on these hopes because the probabilities tell us clearly that the crash and burn scenario is the likely outcome.
DK I honestly believe there will be major changes in many areas. Cannot tell you what they are, but change is definitely coming.
MVL: My money says even though I hope you're right, Memphis, history for me proves different in the sense that nobody at the levels we are watching, ever does the right thing. I pray I'm wrong, but a crash and burn is the statistical precedence that largely precedes any meaningful change. By that time, the smart money has already been made, but I'm with ya!
Memphis: Grounded? YES...always. And tho this may be a tough pill to swallow it is true that the youth are quick to adopt new thinking but us grown ups? Are slow (stubborn maybe?) to actually allow our normalcy bias to adapt and the use of the word "grounded" is thus held close by many and held up as an excuse rather than an opportunity.
Not pointing the finger! just my own observation... (handshake)