backdoc » February 18th, 2015, 9:35 am IT'S BEEN MORE THAN INTERESTING TO SEE THE CONTROL OZ HAS DISPLAYED ON CONTROLLING BLACK GOLD.
(Oz=IMF, WORLD BANK, U.S.TREASURY, AND CBI)
HE CAN SINGLE HANDEDLY ALTER WORLD MARKETS WITH THE PRICE OF THIS COMMODITY.
WORLD MARKETS ALL SUBMIT TO ITS POWER OF PRICE!
WITH RIG COUNTS DROPPING WE HAVE SEEN TALK BUT NO RESULTS ON DECREASING SUPPLY! WE CONTINUE TO SEE SUPPLY INCREASE AS I HAVE MENTIONED IN THE PAST.
I BELIEVE WE WILL SEE PRICES REMAIN CLOSE TO WHERE THEY ARE UNTIL IRAQ LAUNCHES ITS NEW CURRENCY.
WE ALL ARE VERY EXPECTANT OF THE LAUNCH OF THEIR MARKET ECONOMY.
ONCE WE SEE IT, REALITY ON CRUDE PRICES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL SENDING PRICES LOWER!
SUPPLY WILL HAVE TO MEET DEMAND AND THE REAL WAR WILL BE FOUGHT ON THE EXTRACTION PRICE LEVEL WHICH IRAQ HANDILY WINS!
HOW LONG UNTIL REALITY FOR THEIR MARKET ECONOMY AND THE RETURN TO SUPPLY AND DEMAND ON BLACK GOLD?
AS WE NEAR THE END OF FEBRUARY ITS ONLY 30 DAYS TILL SPRING AND WHAT A SPRING WE WILL HAVE!
EARLY MARCH WILL ROCK!!!
I ESPECIALLY LIKE THE 48 TONS OF SECURITY (Gold) IRAQ BOUGHT BY ADDING TO ITS RESERVES WHICH WAS SPECIFICALLY PURCHASED TO SUPPORT THE LAUNCH OF THIS NEW CURRENCY!
I ALSO LOVE THE ARTICLES OF THEM CRYING ABOUT NOT HAVING MONEY, DINAR MONEY THAT IS, WHILE THEIR SEEMS TO BE A COOPERATIVE SPIRIT AMONG THE KURDS AND BAGDAD!
Oil falls toward $61 as rally's sustainability in question
Lucy Nicholson | Reuters
Oil fell more than $1 toward $61 a barrel on Wednesday, failing to build on gains of over 1 percent in the previous session as analysts said a recent rally was overblown.
"The lack of follow-through higher yesterday is a worry and there's plenty of reason to be neutral here and observe carefully," PVM Oil Associates director and technical analyst Robin Bieber said.
Oil prices have risen more than 35 percent since hitting an almost six-year low of $45.19 in January, in an ascent fueled by lower industry spending and falling U.S. rig counts.
Benchmark Brent crude futures were down $1.03 at $61.50, having fallen to a low of $61.11 earlier in the session. U.S. crude traded at $52.89 a barrel, down 64 cents.
"The contracts will look very fragile and accident-prone if one or two more contracts fail to hold key support," Bieber said.
Volumes were significantly reduced in early trading as several Asian countries started the Lunar New Year holidays, which last for the rest of the week.
BNP Paribas analysts said the recent surge in prices was premature given record-high U.S. crude stocks.
"U.S. refinery outages, through seasonal maintenance and industrial action, will weaken U.S. crude demand, exacerbating the crude stock excess in the near term," oil strategists Gareth Lewis-Davies and Harry Tchilinguirian said in a note to traders.
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U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles are already at their highest since records began and are expected to have risen again last week by 3.1 million barrels, a preliminary Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.
U.S. stocks data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute is due later on Wednesday.
Instability in the Middle East helped support the market, however, and Commerzbank analysts said prices could turn positive later on Wednesday following the prior session's 2015 high of $63.
"Yesterdays price response shows that oil prices still want to climb," senior oil and commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch said. "Brent ... is profiting from the renewed shift in focus towards supply risks."
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called on Tuesday for a United Nations resolution mandating an international coalition to intervene in Libya against Islamic State militants.
Libya's oil exports have collapsed to less than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.6 million bpd before the 2011 civil war, as violence in the country has shut all major ports.
Oil Rally May Reverse on Rising U.S. Supply By Grant Smith
(Bloomberg) -- The rebound in oil will reverse because rising U.S. production is deepening the global supply glut, according to UBS AG, Bank of America Corp. and Commerzbank AG.
Crude Oil Bears Betting on Supply Glut Miss Market Rally Bloomberg
Goldman Sees Oil Rally Fading With Further Cuts Needed Bloomberg
Crude Trades Near Two-Month High as Drilling Slows in U.S. Bloomberg
U.S. Rigs Are Being Idled, but the Oil Boom Is Not Ending Bloomberg
U.S. Rigs Are Being Idled, But the Oil Boom is Not Ending Bloomberg
Brent futures entered a bull market this month as U.S. drillers stopped using a record number of rigs, companies cut at least $40 billion from spending plans and hedge funds turned the most bullish in seven months. None of that will stop Brent slipping back to $45 a barrel or lower within the next three months, from about $61 now, the banks’ analysts say. Prices fell as low as $45.19 on Jan. 13.
The highest U.S. oil production in three decades won’t be curtailed by the idling of rigs and inventories will keep expanding, according to UBS. The rally has been based on sentiment rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand, Commerzbank says. As storage space fills up, producers will need to discount to sell barrels, Bank of America predicts.
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“Oil prices should again come under pressure,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS in Zurich who expects Brent to reach $40 in the next three months. “Production is likely to rise further and inventories will continue to rise. This means the market will remain oversupplied in the first half of 2015.”
Brent’s advance to a two-month high of $62.57 on Monday prompted some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to signal confidence in a recovery. Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada said that “a sense of optimism” has returned, while Kuwaiti minister Ali Al-Omair said the supply glut is smaller than previously estimated.
U.S. oil explorers have idled rigs for 10 consecutive weeks, extending an unprecedented retreat in drilling and dragging the total rig count down to the lowest level in almost five years, data from Baker Hughes Inc. showed Feb. 13.
The cut would need to be deeper to halt growth in output, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The increasing efficiency of drillers and lower costs combined with moving rigs to the most productive areas mean the nation’s output won’t decline, Bank of America estimates.
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The retreat in drilling has made some speculators more bullish on oil prices. Their bets on Brent crude were the most bullish since July in the week to Feb. 10, according to data from the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Money managers’ net-long wager on rising prices rose 13 percent to 158,974 contracts, the highest since July.
The U.S. Oil Fund LP, an exchange-traded fund tracking crude prices, attracted $1.15 billion of investor money last month, the most in six years.
The threat of weaker U.S. oil production that is helping to drive the rally in prices is genuine, Paul Horsnell, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London, wrote in a report Feb. 16. The decline in drilling will be sufficient to halt monthly growth in U.S. production as early as April, and higher-cost output elsewhere in the world will also falter, he said.
U.S. crude production averaged 9.23 million barrels a day through Feb. 6, the most in weekly Energy Information Administration records dating back to January 1983.
“Could we already be past the worst? We don’t think so,” Francisco Blanch, the New York-based head of commodities research at Bank of America, said in a report Feb. 13. “We continue to believe that neither supply nor demand will respond materially near-term,” said Blanch, who predicts Brent will fall below $40 in the next two months.
Inventories in developed markets may expand from the highest level in more than four years, completely filling land-based storage by the second quarter, Bank of America estimates. Sellers will need to widen the discounts on immediate supply, known as contango, in order to clear the glut, the bank says.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, will need to fall below $30 to really stifle investment in new supply, Ed Morse, the head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. in New York, said in a report Feb. 9. The low point for prices will probably come at the start of the second quarter, he said. WTI lost 81 cents to $52.72 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:50 a.m. London time.
The bullishness among hedge funds was driven by a reduction in bearish positions, rather than additional bullish bets, signaling traders are still cautious that the rally will last, according to Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank A/S in Oslo.
“The current rebound is very much driven by liquidity, sentiment, momentum and investors and not so much the fundamentals,” Eugen Weinberg, the head of commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, wrote in an e-mail. “The fundamentals do not support this bullish view yet.”