Post From Peoples Dinar By BlueyesinLevis - "Tlar Hits A Home Run"
BlueyesinLevis: I got home from my ride.. and found this waiting. Love it.
Tlar wrote -
Commentary - 8 days left until the parliamentary elections in Iraq. Maliki is still fighting to get a third term but all the blocks have basically turned their backs on him,. Maliki has even tried to negotiate his way into some political position after the elections like VP or President.
He has tried to get any Shia block to recommend him for another position saying he would be willing to step aside and not run for PM if they did. He is extremely fearful of not being in some political position after the elections because if he is not, he looses his immunity.
He has only his hard core supporters in the SOL that would like to see him get another term but even the SOL is in trouble with many not wanting to support him and they are experiencing defections by the droves.
The NA, the Shia conglomerate party is not interested in supporting him and they have made no commitments to him, but behind the scenes the Shia party says that there is no chance for Maliki to get them to back him. Maliki has stated that if he can't win the PM job for a third term that he will leave Iraq.
The list of blocks against him is getting longer by the day. The citizen block (projected largest Shia block), the Kurdish block, the Sadrists, the Sunni's (Iraqiya), the Islamic Supreme Council (Shia), the Turkmen and many smaller blocks have all banded together to make sure Maliki does not get a third term.
Maliki sees the writing on the wall and IMO is just going through the motions until the last minute as are most of his hardcore followers. It is my opinion they will all run before Election Day is over as the first of the straw polls come out.
Maliki tried to give a speech in Bagdad last week, a Shia stronghold. He did not get a chance as attendees threw things at him and booed him off stage. He also tried to give a speech in Basra last week but it too ended in a similar way with articles of hats and shoes being thrown at him with boos from the crowd.
A poll taken recently that is supposed to be representative of the people of Iraq showed Maliki getting 11% of the vote. The Sadrists were in the 30 percentile range but the citizen Block took over 40%.
Maliki is finished in Iraq and if he does not escape the country, many are now stating he will end up being prosecuted and hung as was Saddam. He will be accused of crimes against the state as well as murder, extortion, theft, corruption and stealing from Iraq.
The blocks just stated that they want to pass the budget right after the election and the likely hood of it getting passed before the elections is all but gone. The problem with the budget the way it stands is the punitive language written into it that specifically punishes the Kurds by taking away their share of the revenue if they don't hit a 400 thousand bpd quota imposed on them by Shahristani.
In 2012 Shahristani put a 200 thousand bpd quota on Kurdistan that they had to hit and maintain before the end of the year. The Kurds had no problem with this quota feeling that they could hit the target easily.
About three months into the target date, the end of 2012, Shahristani quit paying the oil companies in Kurdistan. The way the oil deal works in Iraq, is Bagdad is supposed to pay all the bills of the independent companies producing oil.
All revenues go to Bagdad and then Bagdad disperses the shares to the provinces. By discontinuing the payments to the oil companies working in Kurdistan, those companies mostly quit producing oil in protest to not being paid. Kurdistan missed their target and Shahristani kept Kurdistan's share of the budget.
IMO Shahristani planned to do this in order to attempt to make Kurdistan knuckle under as Shahristani was also trying to reduce Kurdstan's share of the budget from a total of 17% down to 10% since he was appointed to the Oil Ministry by Maliki.
That stalemate of no production in Kurdistan and no payments from Bagdad has lasted almost through today. The Kurds also want the monies from the production to be handled either by them or a reliable third party and then split according to agreement.
They refuse to let Shahristani a known thief, handle the money. They have even asked the UN to control the monies giving everybody their fair share. The UN agreed. Shahristani, the largest thief in Iraq refuses to let anybody but him handle the money. So we have a mexican standoff on the budget. S
hahristani is standing his ground on both issues saying no to the removal of the punitive language and no to anyone but him handling the monies, as well as the Kurds are stating no changes in the mechanics in the budget, they will not vote on the budget.
It is my opinion eventually Sharistani will ultimately be hung by the neck side by side with Maliki. He was known to have stolen 6 billion USD (Maliki's previous slush fund) when he ran the Electricity Ministry and was about to be prosecuted by parliament when Maliki saved him by appointing him to head up the Oil Ministry, Iraq's largest "Maliki Slush Fund."
The good news is the blocks want this budget passed immediately following the election and have already agreed on the Kurdish issues to make sure it does.
The CBI has let the contracts to reprint the 250, 500 and 1000 notes. It is my belief that until these notes are printed and we begin to see large number of notes being swapped out we will not see an RV.
The old 250, 500 and 1000 were printed in 2003 and they have all the same ease of being counterfeited by Iran. That would make the next time we might see the currency move as July 1st, 2014 the start of the third quarter.
The original plan had called for these old notes (250,500,1000) to be left in circulation for up to two years following a change in the currency. Iran is a state sponsered counterfeiter and I am sure they know the plan because they have been extremely close to the present Iraqi government.
We have seen government and private individuals use the phrase "mafias are prepared to rig the currency". IMO they are talking about Iran. Iran has been counterfeiting the 5000, 10,000 and 25,000 notes since the end of 2009.
They are very proficient and prolific counterfeiters and if I'm right they have had the plates ready for quite a while of the old 250, 500 and 1000 notes, anticipating the deletion of the zeroes project to start.
Up until now they have not counterfeited these notes because a (1000 note) is only worth 85 cents and a (500), 42 cents and a (250), 21 cents. It is not worth printing with the cost of transportation and distribution in Iraq when compared to risk.
They would have to move 25 x's the paper to make the same as selling (1) discounted bogus 25,000 note. They today can print a 25,000 note worth $21.50 before they discount the bill.
If the CBI were to pull the trigger without the new 250, 500 and 1000 notes already going into circulation, Iran would be sucking billions and billions within a few days of the project implementation.
A 1000 note would have a value of $860. It does not take a rocket scientist to see the currencies vulnerability here. They must reprint these notes making them also the new not counterfeit able notes to assure that they too are not compromising the project.
They must reprint them before these notes have value. I see this as a change to the plan but it is an absolutely necessary change to protect the currency.
The CBI since 2007 and through two different governors has steadfastly protected the reserves. Recently I sent you an article where the CBI announced their cash reserves are $100 billion USD equivalency.
They have also announced their gold reserves were 90 tons. In November they told us the gold reserves were equal to their cash reserves which wthe cash reserves at the time were standing at 89 billion USD.
Why the discrepancy and what happened to the rest of the gold? In October if I remember accurately, the CBI announced that because Iraq was now released from Chapter VII UN Sanction that the CBI would be getting 82 billion of released funds from banks around the world.
These funds would be slowly being released and the CBI was going to add them to the reserves. In December BIS announced they would be accepting deposits from Iraq and that these deposits would be converted to dinar.
No more has been mentioned on the released funds until day before yesterday when again 82 billion in released funds were mentioned in an article. We know the CBI has been receiving them but where are they going.
My guess is that the CBI has been having them shipped and deposited directly in BIS as well as some being turned into gold purchases and deposited with BIS. I have called these "the hidden reserves" because they do not show up on the CBI website.
We know there is funds in an Iraqi account at BIS and that Iraq is continuing to make deposits with at least another billion in cash going in this year. Why would Iraq hide these funds?
When it was announced that these funds would be released from banks around the world Maliki stated he was going to get the funds. The CBI got into a back and forth argument and then we heard nothing else until the article a couple of days ago.
I believe Turki, in order to keep Maliki from getting these funds, has diverted them directly to BIS.
They are part of the reserves but have yet to be accounted for on the CBI website. These funds added to Iraq's known reserves and gold holdings makes the CBI one of the strongest banks in the world. Kuwait has one of the strongest currencies in the world but only has 32 billion in reserves.
If we count the CBI's potential reserves, they have almost 250 billion holdings they claim as reserves once the entire 82 billion is brought in house.
Maliki made another run on the CBI. He attempted to use as his excuse salaries need to be covered and with the budget tied up they needed to borrow billions from the CBI to cover them.
Turki again stood his ground based on the constitution, declaring the bank’s independence and the constitution obligation not to make loans to the government.
Turki basically said no way to Maliki only this time it was obvious in the way he said it that there was recognition of Maliki loss in stature and power in Iraq. The bank hopefully will be completely independent without all the verbal and physical attacks it has had to endure for the last 8 years by Maliki and his thieves attempting to get their hands on the reserves.
As Maliki slips in power Turki has grown in power. It is my belief that Turki is now educated in banking and is starting to act as a confident Governor and good things are finally at hand.
Things look like they are finally falling into place. Enjoy the articles and if you would like to see a specific article detailing anything I have said above, please email me. ~ tlar
** JugDawg1: The smaller denoms were reprinted just a couple years ago and then, if I remember right, redone again because the Kurdish language was not on the newer ones. Now I don't think they were ever released and maybe this is why Tlar was referring to the ones printed in 2003.
Sooooooooooooo.............If they truly are going to reprint them again, this would be the third printing of the unreleased bills. That sure seems like a lot of extra reprinting. Carpe Diem
** BlueyesinLevis: It's all about the new hard to counterfiet currency..
the old ones... well.. Maliki helped Iran to make perfect fakes.. just like Tlar was saying.
-The CBI told us they need to print new 50, 250 and 1000.. with the new technology...
Tlar explained why...
Asked how long the new printing of the 50.. 250 and 1000 should take...
Approximately about one to one and a half months from the day the contract was let the new currency should be ready to pass out.
The CBI has told us recently that the contract was let but they did not say when. It might have been let a month ago but at the worste, about a week ago.
So these new notes should begin replacing the existing notes and circulating no later than sometime in June IMO, unless the printing company (IMO de la Rue for consistency) encounters some unforeseen difficulties.
That's why I believe the first chance we will have to potentially see an RV is July1st, which also happens to coincide with the new accounting period.
The CBI under both Shabibi and now Turki have stated their desire to not implement this project in the middle of an accounting period because of the confusion it would cause the accounts, both government and private.
I believe the way the timing on everything is lining up means that July 1st is the next most likely target. I am very hopeful as the facts point to this, but at the same time I am always mindfull that this is Iraq and things go sideways more often than not as it has done with the budget. ~tlar
**BlueyesinLevis: From April 14th.. when all those CBI articles came out syaing they were now going to reprint and release new 50. 250, and 1000 notes.. this is Tlar's commentary.
Tlar wrote: Comment - the CBI under Shabibi decided early on at the end of 2010 that they were going to re-print the small denominations, fils through the 100 dinar denominations. In 2006 at a strategic meeting the CBI had let it slip that they had actually printed 14 different notes on the original printing in 2003 but they had only released 7 of them.
They had decided to reprint the smalls based on the fact that the original notes were printed like the same ones in circulation and were two easy to counterfeit.
Also they had promised the Kurds that their language would also be added to the notes making the new smalls have three languages represented on them instead of just Arabic and English as was done on the original printing in 2003.
Also the CBI under Shabibi had envisioned pulling as many of the 5000, 10,000 and 25,000 notes as possible before they actually deleted the zeroes, so in April of 2012 an intense program began with the CBI keeping every big 3 zero note that came into the bank and only releasing the 250, 500 and 1000 dinar notes back as they came in.
Shabibi also had no intentions of re-printing the 250, 500 and 1000 notes, deciding that these notes would be the crossover notes into the new smalls.
In other words these would be the notes still circulating at the time they deleted the zeroes and these notes would be allowed continue to circulate until eventually all of them would be traded into the bank for new smalls.
It was a good plan to transition from the large notes to the small denominations and the CBI is still following it today, removing the big 3 zero notes and releasing only the 250, 500 and 1000 from banks.
Also in 2012 for many reasons the rate of the dinar drifted down. Because of counterfeits in the market, the condition of real bills and pressure buying of USD over market by hard currency starved Iran and Syria, the rate of the dinar actually went down on the street.
The official program rate was still 1166 but on the streets the dinar was bringing as much as 10% less. This was mainly caused by Iran who was willing to pay anything it had to over the program rate to purchase USD to stay afloat. Their own currency had collapsed with the sanctions.
Many of the dollars Iran bought out of Iraq were bought with bogus counterfeit dinars and this was a major concern to the CBI and citizens alike.
Iran is a sophisticated state sponsored counterfeiter. For years they printed the US $100 dollar bill earning the title "super bill" due to the fact it would pass most all bank detectors as real.
The US has spent billions of dollars and redesigned and re-printed our bills many times to finally make our currency too complicated for Iran to effectively print our money anymore.
In 2010 the US let Iraq know that Iran had begun counterfeiting the currency and that Iran was setting up networks of phony companies and organizations to pass counterfeit dinars throughout Iraq.
The sole purpose of these Iranian entities was to sell dinars, real and counterfeit, for US hard currency. Maliki's government did nothing to stop it choosing to turn a blind eye to it. That is another subject for discussion.
So why am I telling you this? The CBI has made a strategic decision to re-print the 250, 500 and 1000 dinar notes before they actually delete the zeroes giving them value.
They too will have all the new features making it almost impossible to counterfeit including a raised portion of the bill that will allow the blind to feel the denomination of the bill. One of the complaints a lot of government MP's have had which has stalled this project is "mafias (Iran) were preparing to rig the currency."
What the CBI fears is that when they delete the zeroes using the 250, 500 and 1000 notes as the crossover notes to the new uncounterfeitable smalls, Iran will immediately start printing the old notes and they will flood the market with these counterfeits buying USD at a higher rate.
So the CBI has decided to reprint these notes while they have no value and either release them at the same time as the smalls or a little before they release the new smalls. Iran has been counterfeiting the large 3 zeroes notes exclusively (5000, 10,000 and 25,000 notes) because of value.
The lower notes the 250, 500 and 1000 up until now have values less than a dollar so they haven't been worth Iran's time or money to counterfeit. When they delete the zeroes this value will astronomically go up and Iran is ready to counterfeit them.
Because of the sophistication of Iran's distribution system, within a week Iran will be selling these new counterfeits into Iraq. So the decision to re-print these bills is a prudent one IMO.
There are many economists in Iraq that feel this is an unnecessary expense and suggest that the CBI just delete the zeroes and collect these notes along with the rest of the large three zero notes at the same time.
This argument also has merit but for reasons unknown to us the CBI has decided to re-print these notes choosing to follow Shabibi's original plan which called for them to be left in circulation to die of natural causes
. The good thing is every article says that all dinar currency of any denomination put out will be good forever. Some of the articles indicate this printing is being done now. Some indicate it is already done and ready to go. We are close. ~ tlar
**Dinarmite: Love, love, love this commentary from you a Tlar, Blue. I was about to ask a question about the currency and believed it to be relatively short and you already had his response. Good job, man.
I wonder how long it'll take to get these new bills out there enough to warrant the reval. I doubt they'll put a mandate or time frame on it so they must have a number in mind, and of course they can come up with a new story just like the one in January where there ended up being a run on the banks.
They can always manipulate the masses in ways they won't know they're being manipulated.
About Shakristani....I too feel like he will be on the outs quickly with Maliki gone (and can we add the judge while we're at it?). My question is .....once M is officially out is he out also?
Or does the winning bloc in the election get to remove him and insert their own minister to replace him?!
Is there a time frame as it appears the Kurds will never do business with him in charge
If the blocs are already saying the budget is a GO right after the election is it possible something is already in play to oust him?
It sounds like Tlar believes Shakristani will be hanging side by side with M but "eventually",
Which doesn't sound like anything definitive.
And I expect that we'll know a lot more "As The Turban Twirls" gets picked up for a few more episodes.
Exciting, isn't it?!!
**Rvmyles: Goog Morning Im having a hard time believing that Turki would for one minute let Maliki in the CBI with out many people watching including himself.
I would also think that there may have been a viewing of the new bills but do not believe that Turki let any one keep some for a keep sake. It may be wishful think but I am stiil of the mind set that the last printing is the one that will be brought out first.
Then very possiable that some new one will be printed for the vision impared.
I would like to think that the time is limited before we see some change in value, therefore the ones on hand will be the ones used just because of the time factor.
We all know that Money is not a factor for reprinting because these Guys through money around like there were not tomarrow. So if I am lucky enough to be correct its all about the timing. With all the talk about the Budget being passed right after the elections and a Deal being made with the Kurds
look at it this way....WOULD YOU RATHER HAVE 17% OF A DOLLAR or 10% 3.32 I dont think that is to hard to figure out. that being said I believe that the revalue may take place before the Budget simply because now they can deal with a true value. HAVE AN RV DAY NEVER GIVE UP
** BlueyesinLevis: I am very encouraged about the rate being lifted this year. We ALL know the importance put on doing it at the beginning of an accounting period... for business and government and contracts, etc..... the very best one ... of course.. is january 1st.
Some think the budget being implemented will be retroactive to january 1. Great.. I'm all for it.
That said.. the 2nd BEST day of the year to enact changes to accounting.. is the first day of the 2nd half of the year.. the start of the 3rd quarter.... July 1st.
-That gives us 2 reasons to be hopeful for the very near future...
**Jimplants: Correct the budget will be retroactive to January i as well as all of the laws they impliment. That is what they have stated to their people Blessings jim
Comments may be made at the end of Part 2 Thank You