Post From Currency Chatter
Tlar Commentary With Select Member Discussion Part 1 of 2
Thousands of supporters of the Sadrist movement, on Friday in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, in support of the initiative of the leader of the reformist trend, while the roads leading to the square witnessed intensive security measures to protect the demonstrators.
Tlar: Now that's a show of strength. I would be willing to bet that the SOL ministers and any minister who has been stealing, that has yet to resign hoping to survive this, who are in their offices today staring at the mass of people at the wall of the green zone, will resign immediately and leave quickly through the back door.
What is being said by Sadr is "you leave and don't interfere with the change over of government, or we will come through the wall and physically storm the green zone tomorrow and remove you physically."
Any minister who stays past today or for that matter any block who is intending to side track these reforms, beware. The corruption's day of reckoning is just around the corner. tlar
Tlar: In theory Maliki is not in parliament, nor is he a Minister or any part of the government. He has his minions of course buried deep in all kinds of positions including ministers and he has plants everywhere that answer to him either because they are on his payroll or are being blackmailed.
Maliki is the Mafia he so loved to call everyone else when he was the one who kept shutting down the RV saying "mafia's are preparing to rig the currency". Here is where I think his head must be.
Maliki knows that recently Iran has turned their back on him. That's a block. He knows that al-Sistani just ordered the popular crowd to take it's orders from the defense ministry which he no longer controls.
The defense ministry is under the control of Abadi so Maliki's dreams of controlling the crowd are totally gone now. That's a major block. He also must know that his ministers and minions will resign now out of fear and basically abandon him. That's a block.
And he knows that the US is in the green zone protecting the life of Abadi. That's a block.
We have to assume that when the change was originally suggested with al-Sistani's call for the government to resign, that his corrupt machine went into overdrive trying to slow it down, fight it, or stop it all together. He must know that that option is closing fast. That's a block.
His options other than trying to assassinate Abadi which at this point with the US protecting him, are diminishing by the hour. He is losing control fast now and those that he trusted, those that are also corrupt are in a life saving mode.
This is why I said they will quickly turn on him trying to save their own skin. We are already starting to see some of this with what was his defense minister wanting to produce copies of his orders from the Maliki administration to cover his own butt.
He will claim he was only following orders from the PM therefore cannot be held accountable. In other words, Maliki's days are numbered and it is my belief that within weeks of the new government being seated , he will be arrested and brought up on charges.
The new government will be seated very quickly with little opposition from the corrupt because IMO they will be very busy trying to "fix" what they did making deals, or they will be on the run internationally.
Those that haven't run yet, well what can I say. They are stupid and have overstayed their welcome or really did not believe anybody could stop them what with Maliki protecting them. The rallies being held today is the death knoll for the existing government. All IMO of course. tlar
Before there wasn't a clear strategy or plan. There were just protesting a government that was self serving, entrenched and did not care what the people thought. This time it is different.
The plan is what has brought them together and out in droves. I think they understand that if they support this movemebnt, that change is coming. Sadr is a driven cleric and has a following.
But this showing will grow now because if other people understand and see that it is possible to force the corrupt from office and that there is a defined reason to protest, they will quickly join in . This kind of ground swell has been known to feed on itself because by and large the cause is worth fighting for.
I believe this protest will last until the job is done meaning those corrupt ministers and officials will resign.
I also believe this was a very necessary part of the plan to accelerate the process as many of the corrupt would have stayed in their offices to the bitter end much like Maliki and Allawi and Nujafi staying in their palaces and offices even after being kicked out of government.
Sadr's support for the plan and his part in it, and for Abadi is obvious. The direction they are going is to crush any resistance to the plan early on clearing the way for the new government.
Once a minister resigns, there is no do over for him. As each minister resigns, he is out. I think by Monday all ministers except the 3 that Abadi wants to keep will have resigned. Whoa be to any that hasn't. tlar
Mike: I'm really hoping that Sadr's involvement makes a difference with this protest, they've been protesting for a year now and nothings changed. Hopefully the murdering cleric can do something for Abadi and Iraq
Good stuff, I guess we'll see on Monday. In the past, the immunity that protected the MP's was a powerful tool they coveted, if they just split, their immunity goes away.
If they stay and fight, the immunity is still in effect. Sadr's group is large and powerful, but so is Ameri, Badr and the rest of the PMU. In the end, unless force is used, this will go through the political process, which is going to be something to watch
Tlar: Mike, I see it ending differently. I see Badr and Ameri not wanting to countermand al-Sistani. This is morphing into are you an Iraqi patriot interested in helping your country or are you not. Badr and Ameri have honored the call to not take part in the coming attack on Mosul.
So IMO today's demonstration will pay big dividends quickly. Sadr's threats of taking his crowd inside the green zone should scare the crap out of those on the wrong side of this. Although you could be right, I still feel that it will be over by Monday meaning the corrupt Ministers will resign.
I prefer to think that way because human nature being what it is most will now get out of the way. I also do not believe Sadr's threat is a hollow one.
I think those that don't resign and stubbornly attempt to hang on will be dealt with by this crowd of demonstrators. They too have to believe that or pay a major price. We should start to see articles maybe as early as tonight or tomorrow morning of all those Ministers and deputy ministers having resigned today or early tomorrow.
I don't think this will be argued out over the next few weeks. It would kill the momentum. al-Sistani will again scream for resignations only louder this time if it comes to pass there are a few holdouts. All IMO. Achmedtlarious
Mike: I hope you're right, Tlar, I would love to see a change in the government. For the record, I think Sadr was just blowing smoke, turning the mob loose in the Green Zone would be disasterous. I've watched these guys pound their chest and make threats but in the end, not much comes of it.
Over the years Sadr has made a bunch of grand standing statements with not much to show for it. There was talk several times regarding Maliki and a vote of no confidence and in the end, he folded.
I mean, Abadi's been telling us for a year that ISIL's days in Mosul were over, and yet here we are, ISIL's still in Mosul. The Arab culture respects and recognizes these blustery statements, it's part of everyday life.
If Abadi is going to do this, he needs to follow the constitution and not go off the rails and act like just another dictator. Any government he installs without due process won't be legitimate in the eyes of the world. And to do that, he needs the support of Tariq Harb and Mahmood.
If they don't cooperate, then that's his first move towards reforming Parliament and the CoM's replacement. Abadi needs the judicial branch to officially charge those they have files on and then try them in the courts.
This will take them out of the political scene and neutralize them while they go through the courts, once charged, I don't see how they won't get convicted, but who knows. Maliki and the corrupt have used the constitution for years to prevent change, they know how to use the system and that's why they're still in power. As long as they can still manipulate the courts, I don't see much changing.
In the end, it's just my opinion, I'm not telling you you're wrong, Tlar. It would be awesome if they could just wipe the slate clean and start over with an inclusive, cooperative government focused on what's best for the citizens and their contribution to the world.
But this is Iraq, and after watching them for years, it's pretty clear nothing happens quick over there, even when it's needed. There's always a first time though.
JD Blue: Tlar... we did not even have to wait for tonight.. there was an article last night... where HAKIM presented the resignations of every MP within the Citizen's Bloc. That was big news.. right in advance of the demonstration. We have seen another several dozen resignations before that. That said, you are correct, we should see even more... soon.
I think JB was asking if Sadr suddenly pulled this out of his hat. NO, he didn't. We have been following these developments for the last 2 weeks. Abadi got back from visiting Britain, with a new plan. Realizing the REFORMS were going no where, with Maliki's Mafia thumbing their noses at him... the PTB have stepped in... and Abadi is now aligned with the foreign powers... the US.. Britain... the IMF...
He began talking about the new GOI of technocrats.... calling for wholescale changes.. in a very short time. Then we heard SADR was on board. Hakim resurfaced. Sistani is backing it. And lo and behold... IRAN told Maliki "No matter what happens YOU ARE OUT!"
The Iranians are backing Abadi, and this new tack of REshuffling all the old MP's out. With good reason. Iran is being rehabilitated in the global community, and they are no longer invested in keeping Iraq down. It is now in Iran's interest to raise Iraq up alongside of themselves.
They just signed a significant MOU.. Iraq and Iran. THings are moving rapidly. The Iranian Riyal and the IQD are economically linked. IMHO.
SADR came out of seclusion and is lending his own personal efforts.. something he has not done before. For years we saw statements of 'Sadrists".. NOT by Moqtada SAdr.. but by his minions who were running the Sadrist dealings. Moqtada himself has been under wraps for some time.
This is BIG... Sadr coming out in person like this. Tlar has written several posts over the last week, and if i was to put them all together.. it would explain this much better than I could. All you have to do is go back and look at the 30 day thread. look at the SAdr thread.
Take the time to read the articles.. we kept them all together in about 4 or 5 crucial threads that really get to the heart of what is going on. It's all there. A guy could get up to speed right quick.
JD Blue: Bottom line is this is SO FAR AWAY from the "Ho Hum, same old, same old" line of jaded , worthless posts that do nothing to add to our understanding of what is actually happening. Every site has their cross to bear... lol.
They passed a conscription law... not to force sunnis to go serve in the Shiite army in baghdad... but as a TOOL to get a handle on and FORCE the volunteer Popular Crowd to either join the army or disband. Iran backed them .. and Maliki is out in the cold.
There are a dozen equally as dramatic changes in play... that we know of... and it is all in the recent threads... with some damn good analysis and newshound work by some hard working people pitching in together as a team... despite the negative "Same old , same old" crowd. Tlar in particular has been on fire... and his words give depth and understanding of what we are seeing... not just a rehash of blather followed by "It's just my opinion".
There is a reason several of us came back right now. Independent of each other... we realized... THINGS ARE RAPIDLY CHANGING.
Comments may be made at the end of Part 2 Thank You