Post From Currency Chatter
Tlar Commentary With Select Member Discussion Part 2 of 2
Tlar: The article above appears to be a counter article by Maliki to put fear into the the people that Abadi is week and Sadr will actually be running things behind the scenes. It is a divisive article with Maliki saying Sadr is belittling Abadi as weak.
We know Sadr is acting on behalf of Abadi because we know Iran has its tentacles deep in Iraq through both the leadership of the SOL and the popular crowd.. It is quite obvious to me that Abadi needed help because of the overwhelming opposition he was facing. He has it through Sadr and al-Sistani.
Sadr is acting in a supportive position and vocally is going along with the plan to staff technocrats. What Maliki is trying to suggest through this article is that Sadr is a dangerous guy and wants to control Abadi.
Tlar: We know for fact that Sadr will definitely have influence when the change in government takes place because of the roll he has played, but when Sadr speaks of Abadi, it is with admiration and respect, not the way this article from the Maliki corner presents the relationship. First and foremost Sadr is a patriot.
I believe he is genuine in his fight to support the average citizen and his causes. I also believe that he is not a secular person but rather he thinks Sunni's and Shia can live together without killing each other.
Maliki on the other hand has proven over the years that he wants to subjugate Sunni's and Kurds secularizing the sects. Maliki is deathly afraid of Sadr because he knows Sadr seeks his demise.
He is scared to death to see Sadr with Abadi and having influence. Sadr brings the Shiite cause and the Shiite street under the control of Abadi backing Abadi all the way. Sadr has tremendous influence with the average Shiite and is showing that he can influence the outcome of the change.
The expected response from Maliki is fear. Maliki never had the street. Sadr brings that element to the fray and Maliki does not know how to deal with it other than to attempt to break the bond between Abadi and Sadr. It won't work because Sadr is determined to see the plan to change the government through.
Maliki is starting to sweat and IMO the above article, Maliki is showing stress because there is not much he can do. The net is closing.
Tlar: Mike, I respect your opinion and as yet, Humpty is still sitting on the wall. This could fall either way. There is no right or wrong in either opinion. At least that's how I feel. I think we both agree that something of great historical importance is happening in front of us while we watch. This is a defining moment for Iraq.
Our opinions, I think, are the same as far as the potential outcome. I just feel there is a deadline they are chasing and as such, IMO I think they will get this done quicker than you think. I don't think the Abadi government will bypass nor can they be seen doing so, any steps legally required to make this move.
This means they will have to see that the T's will be crossed and I's dotted. There is no loss or gain in being correct or incorrect in either of our opinions. After all you and I both are obviously avid readers and students, absorbing the same information as best we can..
I respect that of you and I respect your thoughtful opinions. I hope you feel the same about me and my opinions. Either way I feel quite sure we both hope for this to be over in as few days as possible few delays and quick resolutions to follow, with the ultimate goal being a new government free of corruption. tlar
Mike: Thanks for the article, Philly, it's chilling.
“Abadi, as a person, is kindhearted,” said Saad Thamer, 37, a supporter of Mr. Sadr’s who attended the rally. “But he is very weak.”
“He’s supporting Abadi, but in his own way,” Mr. Maliki said. “He wants to control Abadi.”
I guess we'll wait and see what happens, Blue's right, I don't see anything changing rapidly in Iraq.
Tlar: JB, my opinion hasn't changed. I believe unless something comes up totally unforseen, I believe we will see the dinar go international on or before the end of this quarter (March 31st).
No Intel, just my thoughts. I am basing this thought on the instructions given by the CBI to make their books retroactive back to January which I believe means there is probably a change in the value of their assets based on a new value of the currency.
Also on the plan to open the economy in early March along with the new port. I still can't see them doing any of this without an international currency.
The IMF is gearing them to go to Article VIII in March. Also all the recent talk upgrading upgrade the CBI govenor to someone who has an education and experience right at this moment. Not to mention the IMF's statement that Iraq will seek to join the world economy in the first part of 2016.
The speed at which they are attempting to remove corruption (the old guard) from the government as if someone or some group is trying to make this change do to some schedule. As far as the value of the dinar, I have always believed that we have only partial facts. That is intentional I can assure you.
The question I would love to see answered is "how much money is actually sitting at the BIS that rightfully should be part of the reserves according to Turki at the time these monies were released back to Iraq from banks in the US as part of the removal of chapter VII.
The news reported that 80 billion USD was being released. Where did all those billions go? I have my suspicions. At the time they said they were going to release them it was around November 2012 and Turki had only been in office for a month or so.
Maliki immediately declared that the money belonged to the government. Turki defiantly said no, they were part of the CBI reserves and that Maliki would never get his hands on it. Shortly thereafter sometime in December 2012 I believe we saw an article from BIS statin g Iraq had opened an account and was planning on making deposits starting i January.
Then in January the deposits started being made to BIS. The reserves at the time in Iraq were very stable growing a little each month through commissions made in the auction. My questions are two fold.
Where did the money come from that was being deposited into BIS and what happened to the 80 billion that never showed up on the CBI's balance sheet increasing the reserves. I think it’s a simple answer really.
Turki diverted those reserves to BIS, 80 billion worth. They are rightfully part of the reserves. Next Turki shipped the reserves that were being reported to banks all over the world to make sure Maliki could not get his hands on them.
That became a pissing match between Maliki and Turki whereby Maliki accused Turki of stealing 10 tons of gold in an attempt to get him out and a lacky in. (lacky in??)
I think the CBI's reserves are much higher than they report to this day. This would affect the value of the dinar times 2 and some change. So I believe the rate they will do has the potential of being higher than just delegating 3 zeros.
We have all though that when you remove the leading zeros it meant 86 cents, but truth it without further details it could mean 86 cents or any number above that. It only latterly means THOSE ZEROS WILL BE GONE ONCE DELETED.
It doesn't necessarily tell us anything else to help us determine what that rate may be. I hope this helps but I type with one finger and that finger is going numb tonight. So I leave you with this thought. The delete the zero program was envisioned as far back as 2006. That's now 10 years ago.
At the time the reserves were around 30 billion a lot of which they raised by selling their currency to speculators for hard currency such as the dollar. They were producing about 1 million barrels a day most of which they were using internally. Very little was being exported for cash revenue.
In 2008 the CBI commissioned the strategic study with plans to delete the zeros in 2010. The study concluded at that time they could support 1.13 dinars to 1 US dollar. A lot has changed.
So what's the number today? Your guess is probably better than mine because I have a cluttered and prejudice thought process when it comes to the rate. I think it will in the higher rather than lower range.
Good night. tlar PS please excuse the grammatical errors, I won't bother to read this until tomorrow when it is too late to fix.
JD Blue: Yes. The Zeros Project has been going on for some time. WE dinarians did not invent it... it is FACT. Deal is... the rate is gonna be about the PIPS.
They can move the rate up or down.. and have several times.. by adjusting the PIPS.
That is one reason we have thought they may get the IQD up to 1,000 to 1.... in advance of deleting the leading zeros... then.. 1 IQD= 1 USD.
Me? I dont care what they move the PIPS to... up down or sideways.
I'm just here for the Zeros, baby!
Tlar: Oh one more thing that seems to concern everyone. That is how much dinar is n Iraq that is supposed to be circulating. This is what they have to cover when they do an RV. We have consistently read 35-37 trillion dinar is circulating.
The fact is Saleh told us at the beginning of 2012 that there were 4 trillion dinar circulating in Iraq at that time. I think he made a mistake in telling us because right after that economists and people in government raced to fix this mistake by putting out many articles saying there was 30 trillion circulating.
Either Saleh screwed up and made a huge mistake or they did not want us to know because it would not take a rocket scientist to start to see that the 100 billion in reserves was covering only 4 trillion dinar.
That would define the dinar as grossly undervalued and the speculators would have a field day. At the time he made this statement the CBI was still publishing "total number of dinar out of CBI" as a category.
Strangely that number matched the number politicians and the media were reporting as circulating dinars when we know our dinars are not circulating in Iraq. This brought on heated debates with many falling prey to the media's bull crap. The media was being fed a bunch of manure and swallowing it in huge lumps.
I knew the numbers being reported we all the dinars and most of all dinars are sitting in other countries central banks and in hands of speculators such as you and I. Later at the end of 2014 they reprinted the currency to gain better security and they began a program with the intention of replacing all the currency in Iraq with the new bills to stop the counterfeiters. Guess what?
The only printed 5 trillion dinars in all the categories. You and I know that they would print more than they need as to not run out. 5 trillion is all they printed. What does that say about dinars circulating at the time at the end of 2014.
SALEH SLIPPED AND GAVE US THE CORRECT NUMBER OF CIRCULATING DINARS AT THE BEGINING OF 2012. He was not supposed to, but he did.
So from now on when you read that there are 37 trillion dinars circulating in Iraq, ask yourself the question, IF THERE TRULY IS 37 TRILLION DINAR ACTUALLY CIRCULATING IN IRAQ, WHY WOULD THEY ONLY PRINT 5 TRILLION TO REPLACE THEM IF THE GOAL WAS TO SECURE THE CURRENCY - TO PROTECT IT FROM COUNTERFEITERS?
Now you know the rest of the story. tlar PS your currency will never be replaced. It will be destroyed so they did not reprint for you and me.
Articles & Links Referenced In Discussion Provided By Phillyman & JD Blue:
Thousands of supporters of the Sadrist movement, on Friday in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, in support of the initiative of the leader of the reformist trend, while the roads leading to the square witnessed intensive security measures to protect the demonstrators. LINK
Confirmed the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on Friday that Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is at stake after the "rose up people," as pointed out that the prime minister dawdle for reforms after enabled to achieve them, he stressed that al-Abadi binding radical reforms do not prosthetics. LINK
Vowed to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on Friday, "the corrupt oppressors" to restore the rights of the Iraqi people, threatening that the Iraqi people will enter the Green Zone to restore his rights. LINK
Confirmed the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, on Friday, the lack of differences between the Islamic and the Iraqi civil or between Sunni and Shiite, and among that everyone on this country, "which Qdmth AFCAC corrupt and authoritarian", he pointed out that "the Iraqi people want the reform of the government." LINK
Amid Iraqi Chaos, Moktada al-Sadr, an Old Provocateur, Returns
By TIM ARANGOFEB. 26, 2016
BAGHDAD — They came from the slums of this city’s underclass, the alleyways and the simple halls of the seminary in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, and the outer reaches of the rural south.They waved Iraqi flags and demanded change. The crowd packed Baghdad’s Tahrir Square on Friday morning, chanting by the tens of thousands against corruption and for decisive reforms in how politics is conducted here, as they waited for their man to appear. “No, no to thieves! Yes, yes to reforms!” LINK