(Recaps Note: Six New Comments Added)
ReVbo What do y'all think of Stryker's take on this article?
"To be able to transfers Iraq's currency international these companies must have the CBI approval which they have now but they must have a currency that has convertibility as well, so this tells me that Article VIII of the IMF Articles of Agreements is not far away or has already been approved for these type of transfers to be taking place. In deed another piece of the dinar puzzle..." Ordo ex Chao
Danny Griffin: tlar i was a little disappointed when i read the post maliki is toast. at first i thought someone had roasted him and we were through with him. no such luck.
Tlar: Sorry danny. I know I am looking forward but to me its easy to predict the future at this juncture. It is being laid out in front of us like an open book a page at a time, but still confusing to some. Let me say this. If the coalition holds as they have done so far, "MALIKI IS TOASTED". Well done to the point he is burnt on both sides. tlar
Oldwazhisname: The DFI funds do not belong to the CBI. They belong to the government of Iraq. Let's use some common sense here.
Those funds are proceeds from sale of oil that has been taken off the top by the DFI. When they say int htis article that the funds "belong" to the CBI and not the government, the meaning is that the government of Maliki can't get their mits on it.
Those funds are initially to be used to settle disputes with Iraq and once that is settled (and assuming) that there is a Parliment approved budget in place with specific uses for those funds, I believe that the CBI will turn those funds over to the government of Iraq.
It is a clear mistake to think that these DFI funds can be used to "defend" an RV in the sense that offical CBI reserves are available for that prupose. These DFI funds represent a liability on CBI's books that need to be returned to the rightful party when the time comes and cannot be used to prop up the value of the IQD
Tlar: Oldwazhisname, I agree with you 100% but it will take years to settle most of these claims. Your thoughts were my first thoughts also. They will also be required to fund the government out of these funds. In the meantime the CBI can do what they want with the 180 billion or what's left. Most likely they will delay settlments and use as part of the reserves. tlar
Kimberley They don't belong to the government of Iraq .. they are the DFI -- Development Funds of Iraq....to be used on the infrastucture and will be held by the CBI... And as projects are approved for infrastructure they will be doled out by the CBI...
Schiz: Yep and yep! :) The DFI account is under the cbi's name, therefore they are responsible for handing out the monies, monies that is only to be used for the rebuilding of Iraq, nothing else!
Tlar: Kimberly, These are also the funds that pay the 5% to Kuwait in restitution monies and fund the government of Iraq. Kimberly, if the CBI takes initial control of these funds, it is up in the air as to how much the CBI will keep but keep they will.
The CBI has been stuffing their coffers (reserves) for years. The CBI is a "for profit" independent organization and they could use future profits to pay future settlements using this money in the meantime to back the currency.
The CBI willo make that decision in the near future IMO. In the meanime the CBI will get another 180 billion under their control if this article is correct.
We will just have to wait to see how much is netted out after the intial plug and how much they intend to increase the reserves. You can pretty much bet we will see an increase in the reserves though. Or at the very least they will buy more gold and we will see an article stating they deposited more to BIS. tlar
Alloha Alex: The news the last few days is indicative of everyone telling Malaki that he is now a has-been...no longer a force directing anything except shoving his index finger up his nose.
If true, it explains that all the past delays that were driving us crazy was because no one wanted to give Malaki credit for progress, and they knew exactly when his time was going to be up. Upward & onward for the great country of Babaylon!
DreamWeaver: Kimberley, nice and to the point. Thanks
(6 New Comments Added) :
Kimberley Tlar. I agree that 5% has been put into this account for Kuwait, but then has gone to the UNSC who pays Kuwait $3.9 billion every quarter, and Kuwait will be paid in full the second quarter of 2015. Then that money will continue to be put in the DFI for the rebuilding of Iraq.
And that is one of the reasons, Najiba Najib is showing her fear of future lawsuits.... But, we need to remember Shabibi said a few years ago, he had taken care of most of the debt through the "Paris Aggreements" Only a few loose ends, and if any one had any reasonable lawsuits, he was ready to hear them...
Now we have seen they Paid the "yellow paper " to Egypt. And they have made new agreements with Jordan andf Brazil.....
There will always be lawsuits, as long as there are people who want to sue....But that is what they have lawyers for...Right now I think they should be looking pretty good.
Tlar Kimberly, you’re sharp and have a good understanding of this. I think we both agree on what's happening it’s the how where we might differ some..
180 billion is a lot of money and it won't trickle in a little at a time.. It will come lump sum and much of it IMO will end up for the time being going into the reserves. It will take years to unravel the individual and company damages that are these expected lawsuits.
Countries have pretty much settled as you mention following the Paris plan. With these lawsuits, some will take years and years before any judgment is made.
It is estimated by Iraq that the lawsuits could be as high as 150 billion over the long haul. Even if so, these can be settled one at a time through multiple years as I am sure Iraq will attempt to stretch them out and drag their feet.
Many litigants will get frustrated and end up settling for pennies on the dollar because of the cost of litigation and the length of time involved. I feel comfortable with the thought that at least in the beginning much of the 180 billion will find its way into the reserves. tlar
HandOverFist I found this article on another site. It says the DFI fund is about $18 billion (give or take). Could the $180 billion be a typo?
Schiz: Thanks for sharing and your thoughts revbo, we can only hope the cbi keeps it as reserves but I just don't think they can. This money will be splashed out to rebuilding projects and such. The CBI just hold the account, but they will disperse the monies to the government projects.
It's kinda like the budget deal, all the monies get passed through the cbi there too, it's so they can change from dollars to dinars with the current exchange rate, but it isn't the cbi's money, they are just kinda like a go between.
I think it will be the same with the DFI money, even though yes, it is in an account under their name but it isn't their money to do with it as they want. Its money put by for the rebuilding of Iraq.
The 2% thing, i've never really worried about that because they can make that disapear in the blink of an eye by doing what needs to be done. But yes, if this is accurate and these banks are now taking part in the auctions we should see the street rate and cbi rate tighten up real quick imo.
I think this....
""the Iraqi Central Bank will manage the Iraqi oil money without the mediation of the Development Fund for Iraq and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, where This is money belonging to the central bank and not belonging to the Iraqi government."
Is like a warning to what will be the new Iraqi givernment that this isnt a slush fund for them to dip their hands in when ever they feel like it, it isn't theres to do whatever they want with it, it is for the rebuilding of iraq and is under the control of the central bankers and will be handed out accordingly.
That's my opinion on all that, im prob wrong as usual :)
The cbi could be really smart here and rv the currency and turn the dfi fund into whatever times it is now and use it to rebuild iraq and back up the currency too.
Rev asked my opinion on this and that's it :P
I'm looking at July 1 and getting nervous, I think we just need to see a solid agreement on who will be the next PM for turki not to worry about this.
KJWayne: " I'm looking at July 1 and getting nervous, I think we just need to see a solid agreement on who will be the next PM for turki not to worry about this."
I agree 100% with this statement! Between June 15th and the first of July ,Iraq will have a new government and Turki will have what he said he wanted before he RV's the DINAR!
Tlar: HOF that also concerned me but they have not been able to spend any real money this year so I am assuming that it is possible to be at or close to 180 as revenues continue to stockpile awaiting the budget to be finished. It is an interesting point. Typo or real?
Either way the point Revbo and I are making is 300 or 400 billion is way to much and the real numbers are close to that even if it turns out this is a typo. So the premise to the argument stands albiet aggressive. tlar
Tlar: (NEWS ARTICLE) Deputy senior Shi'ite within the negotiating committees on the formation of the next government, that the third term has become very difficult and that the parliamentary blocs that oppose the policies of Nuri al-Maliki, reaping today the fruits of understandings coherent dating back to the formation of local governments last year, where he grew up an atmosphere of trust in the framework of joint action, reinforced the conviction that the power to change the team, will help to contain the political and security crisis which has worsened in the country since the U.S. military exit end of 2011.
According to a senior lawmaker who requested anonymity, said the opposition parties for the owners, show an "understanding of responsible" about the transfer of power, which has become necessary, to the extent that it has put the goal of enhancing mutual trust, as a key issue ahead of the competition for positions, so it now offers major concessions among them, to prevent any dispute that may cause division between the forces for change, and allows owners to take advantage of it.
According to a member of the negotiating committee Shia that the most prominent of these concessions are understanding deep facilitate agreement on a candidate for prime minister, "We can say that the Supreme Council and the Sadrists, PATA agree on the nomination of one of the three names, without dispute, because the priority now is to repair the deviation caused by the Maliki's policies. "
He continued, "now we have now, the names are accepted by the Kurdish parties and the Sunni forces, and what is important is what the availability of an atmosphere of understanding, Dmantha faith deep reforms, re-consideration of the legislature, and the judiciary, and independent bodies, and embrace the spirit of decentralization of the Constitution, which froze al-Maliki over 8 years" .
The trades involved names Adel Abdul-Mahdi and Ahmed Chalabi leading candidates to replace al-Maliki, along with Bayan Jabr and other politicians in the first-line Shiite parties.
Adds a senior lawmaker "We know that the disagreement of views on key issues will not be resolved simply by changing the al-Maliki, but the advent of alternative believer Constitution and the necessary reforms, will ease the crisis, and will provide the atmosphere needed for dialogue properly stopped since 2010, while quick-Maliki to shun its obligations."
And on the Iranian position and said that Tehran has been pressing for the survival of al-Maliki, said "basically did not get any clear signals in this regard, and the Shiite party, which will have to accept the rest of the national parties, and form a coalition government and wide, will be able to dialogue with Iran and any other party, on issues common worry our partners regionally and internationally, and they are aware that any easing of tension in Iraq, would be positive on the most serious regional issues. "
Since the days continue Maliki's coalition announced some MPs join him, and heralds its ability to configure a large bloc in parliament, representing the 165 deputies, without explaining how it continues with the widespread rejection of him by the main parties.
In contrast, said the Sadrists and the Supreme Council and Ahmed Chalabi, the re-formation of the Iraqi National Coalition of about 70 deputies, and said they are also ready to rebuild the National Alliance bloc large Shiite condition converted into an institution not subject to the will of the individual, and do not repeat what happened in the last session, and to block a candidate devolution of power to achieve it and there are no objections from the rest of the parties.
The senior lawmaker says that this matter "will remain difficult, because Maliki would not agree to a partnership in decision-making, but we have extended our hands to the coalition not to say that the Sadrists and the Supreme Council dispersed the word Shiites."
On the possibility for a major split in the Sunni Arab blocs benefit from al-Maliki, said the negotiator, a senior, "said Osama al-Nujaifi and Iyad Allawi have made good efforts to prevent a split like that, and they arrange their papers for understanding the fundamental issues, especially the file war Anbar, and the subject of arrests and prisons, after they arrived an impasse with al-Maliki over the years. "
And insiders say the experiences of the formation of governments the previous three, that type understandings existing between the parties opposed to the third term, will accelerate the formation of the government, and while forming the government coalition parties strong, the likelihood of a split Sunni lawmakers will decline, because everyone will be keen to be present in the government, and point out that Maliki clearly aware of that, and therefore skeptical of many of the components of a coalition of state law, and incredulous as well as regional and international worker who very much bet it through all the political risks that have resorted to in the past two
Tlar Comments: Personally I think thw SOL and Maliki have come to the conclusion they cannot win. I think everything from here is posturing used for negotiation in the hopes they can get amnesty while keeping the money in order to step down.
I think the NA has not yet decided tio give them this agreement and the 14 folks Maliki has proposed who will receive amnesty has not been apoproved. I'm either early on this one or the mark.
Next week we should see major changes assuming the NA does agree to the amnesty or we will see a fight clear up to June 15th and the new parliament will vote no to a third term. The SOL is on a verty short fuse to get amnesty..
The coalition has held to this point dispite claims to the contrary by the Maliki camp. They are hell bent on breaking this coalition because they understand that prosecutions for theft crimes and murder will quickly follow if they don't.
The SOL leadership and Maliki are literarily fighting for their lives. It is my belief they are looking for a bargoning chip to step down. tlar
Lojak: There has been an immunity deal for Maliki on the table Since May 1...the day he cancelled a press conference to take the deal and run. The US and UN want him out...it should be very soon Thnks TLAR