Geezer: Hey all – here is a post from Doc who is a very level headed, conservative analyst of the dinar. I have read his stuff over the years and he seems very credible. Just something to chew on as we pass the time…..
Doc: Our time table continues as last reported in that do not expect any significant currency appreciation through end of this year at a minimum. We know this is contrary to most hopeium dealers' opinions but simply stated the fundamentals are just not in place to support appreciation any time soon.
Our insiders continue to support this view. Remember a strong currency needs both fundamental laws in place and a STABLE government neither of which exists currently.
We do believe the government issue will eventually resolve itself. ISIS continues to play on the Sunni vs Shiite hatred emotion. They will continue to stir the masses as long as the the central government continues to favor one bloc over the other.
If Iraq truly can form a inclusive government then much of the ISIS support will quickly fade with the general population. Unfortunately this is a monumental task in their culture and one in which Maliki failed miserably.
As one of our ME colleges put it this culture has existed for thousands of years so don't be shocked if it takes more than a few years to change the culture.
What we expect to see in the next 3-6 months is more of the same. Iraq is notorious for not meeting timelines and commitments and we expect this to continue. The naming of a PM and formation of a new government will take longer than is being reported.
Once this happens it will take some time for it to become fully functional and get on with the business of government. We are hopeful at this point the masses will see a more inclusive philosophy and some sense of stability will be obtained.
It is most likely the CBI will not entertain any thought of currency reform until these events occur. We suggest everyone step back, take your emotions out of the picture and look at the reality of the situation.
Only with that view will you be able to see through all the hopeium smoke and you will see the reality of the current situation. We report, you decide. Doc
Tlar’s Comments: "What we expect to see in the next 3-6 months is more of the same. Iraq is notorious for not meeting timelines and commitments and we expect this to continue." - DOC
He is going against the momentum of this new government. He is making a basic assumption that 3-6 months from now they still will not have formed the government.
If this turns out to be true, then he will be proven right about his assumption on the currency because Turki has said he wants to see the government issue settled before he will pull the trigger on currency reform.
He predicates this assumption on the currency based on his assumption of the government not being formed. So although his second assumption on the currency is based on his first assumption the government not being formed, it will be certainly easy to judge his prowess on these predictions.
Personally I think he is nuts and believe this government will have selected and nominated its PM as they themselves have said, by Monday. If they do this both his assumptions on the currency and the government will have been blown out of the water.
Turki has said he is ready, willing and able to make the monetary change. The CBI has printed the smalls and they are juswt waiting the go ahead which if we believe Turki is the government issue "settled".
Circulating currency is at an all time low and Iraq has essentially dollarized.
The dinars that are still circulating are more protected than they have ever been as far as potential counterfeiting goes as the new 250, 500 and 1000 are being replaced as they come into the banks and have been being replaced since the beginning of the year.
The banks are mostly hooked up internationally and the controls on money laundering along with accountability are in place. They are IMF article VIII compliant and the WTO just needs to stamp the document approving ascension Turki will follow the government’s lead.
When the government is seated, Turki will release the currency as he himself has stated.
So to answer DOCs insult where he calls anyone who says it will be sooner and the government will be in place in another week by suggesting we are all smoking hopium, I say to you DOC, either you are not paying attention to the facts on the ground or you are in left field.
You might as well join the Maliki will get a third term group because you are suggesting he will still be here in 3-6 months and that the government will not be formed.