Tlar: It is always interesting when folks debate you statements or your credibility in a kind way. I suggest those that question what I said about what Shabibi said or did not say and want to look for it in articles, swap the name Shabibi to Saleh, or look under articles released by the CBI. I stand by what I said.
The CBI,SALEH, SHABIBI stated early in 2012 that they would release the smalls by September I have a good memory for sequence and for direction but am terrible with names of who said what especially as the years have rolled by.
My intention was to say that "Under Shabibi's leadership, the CBI announced its intention directly in articles, or through its mouth organ Saleh or by Shabibi himself that in 2012 September, of their intention to release the smalls and "delete the zeros".
Tlar Continues: Some of you can still get on DA and that gives you the opportunity to prove or disprove what I said.
Brule you must have the largest hardrive and storage around. How you were able to pull something up that I said while debating Kap from early 2013 amazes me.
That debate was a debate during the time that all this took place. Neither Kap nor Ennorste challenged my statements or my facts at the time because all had recently taken place and they were accurate as to what was going on.
Believe me when I tell you that if the facts were not right they would have crucified me. Kap was already head hunting me because I was straying fronm his loyal follows and had challenged his float theory.
I was debating Kap on the float theory with my position being that yes earlier articles had come out stating Shabibi was tired of being stone walled by the government
and yes, Shabibi had decided that he would just bring out the currency to float and let the market decide, but Shabibi had been removed a few months before this debate.
It was just before this period that Ali from Dinar trade had met with Shabibi (while still govenor) in England at a banking convention. Shabibi and Ali had recently signed a contract to make Ali become the "facillitator" to drive the currency up in the US.
Kap and Ennorste had earlier gone to Vegas by invitation of Ali to hear his story and to see his new facility he had leased and had built out based on this contract.
My point to Kap was Shabibi had been removed and that contract was no longer valid.
This coupled with the articles that had been talking about the delete the zero program had stopped when Shabibi had made hisw kintention of just releasing the currency at 1166 and articles started surfacing saying the decision to just float the currency had been surfacing.
These float articles had also come to an end by January 2013, then mysteriously under Turki the delete the zero articles had resurfaced.
My position was well known back then to all who read any of my thoughts or watches these debates on DA. I felt stronly that "delete the zeros" was an event and it was back on again..
I saw all the articles to mean the program to delete the zeros was back on track and that the CBI was once again following the 2008 Strategic Study. Kap continued to push the float theory.
That's where I deviated from the company mantra on DA. Kap Ennorste and I had many debates on this subject. That is also about when everything I was writing started to get deleted and ultimately I was banned me from his site because of my views. I was bitter then but I have not changed my views.
I feel very strongly that the delete the zero program is on and that the study done in 2008 that suggested they could support the currency back then at $1.13 has since been modified based on the changes that the country has gone through.
If I remember correctly the oil production in 2008 was 1.5 ish mbpd and the CBI reserves were in the low 30 billionish.
So again we see both the production is up (closing in on 4 mbpd) and the CBI foreign cash reserves are way up (I would argue at over 100 billion even though they continue to espouse 70 billion=-Gold, Cash and BIS)
We could assume that if they could support $1.13 in 2008 that that number could be much higher by now.
DW you are correct, Shabibi had a plan to raise the dinar in five years starting from 2007 meaning his original plan was to come to fruition in 2012. Early on here it appears he changed that plan to 2010 as he wanted to do it by the end of year 2010.
There is evidence to suggest this both from FOREX and from articles. The ISX in articles announced early 2010 they would be an international stock exchange by October 2010 seemingly following what the CBI had indicated to Forex.
We know these things did not happen primarily because Maliki kept stopping it.
So your thoughts on whether they could or could not do it because of laws needed may not be valid, although both arguments are supportable and we will never really know the why.
It is my belief that the only thing that the CBI ever needed to see happen is SUPPORT by the government and its institutions which Maliki prevented time and time again.
The CBI has stated through the years that they needed government to insure a successful project. They have that now and I think that is the game changer and they are quickly trying to implement the project at this time. We will see.
I believe that they need a reality rate if they are to insure the progress they have made to this point. That's why I think by the time the ISX goes live is the best window we have ever seen.
Its only a few days away now to know whether or not this comes to pass.
This investment to me is like drilling an oil well. If you continue to drill hole after hole, it is more than likely you will hit a gusher at some point. If you don't drill, rest assured you will not hit oil. So what's the choice? We have to keep on to get our gusher. tlar
Recent articles from Saleh arguing the position of postponing the project until 2016 could arguably suggest he is trying to stop the project because it is scheduled to launch soon.
While that's just speculation on my part I can't help but see bits of proof here and there that the project is ripe for implementing. My concern is two fold.
One is Saleh and his desire to see the project postponed again. The other is KEYWORDS and who does he really answer to.
The fact that Maliki asked him, "Maliki's appointee" to protest Shabibi's aquital suggests that there might be a deeper relationship there between he and Maliki and that Maliki thinks he can still influence this outcome. Time will tell whether this is a true concern or that I am just a worry wart.
So to me KEYWORDS is an unknown as to where his loyalty truly is. Is he part of the new Iraq or a wolf in sheeps clothinng. Tlar
DreamWeaver: A while back, after reading numerous posts referencing comments made by Shabibi regarding his intention to “pull the trigger” on the RV in 2012 if not for being “stopped” by Maliki, I began researching into whether or not Shabibi actually could have pulled the trigger in 2012.
Supposedly, Shabibi had 5-year plan from '07 to '12 in which dinar was to return to true value. IMO, if this was Shabibi’s plan, it would have been painfully obvious to Shabibi by summer of 2012 that his plan was drastically off target due to lack of GOI (Maliki) cooperation.
After watching Shabibi videos and reading countless articles, I came to the conclusion that although Shabibi may have intended to RV in 2012, he never could have done it. Why?
His plan, I’m convinced, included GOI cooperation and it was apparent that Maliki never cooperated by creating proper foundation for delete the zeros (DTZ) to occur.
As far as Shabibi’s role--CBI role-- in regards to DTZ, Shabibi did all he could by keeping rate stable and printing new currency. Obviously, at the beginning of 2012, Shabibi still believed the DTZ program would be implemented--through GOI cooperation--by the end of 2012, as it appears he reprinted new demons in Jan. 2012 in preparation for that event. Do remember reading post about DA member's son, working at de la Rue--found it interesting.
Respectfully, IMO the undeniable truth is that Shabibi never could have or would have RV’d or released the smalls in the Fall of 2012.
Doing so without GOI cooperation--passing laws and laying proper foundation--would have destroyed all that he’d worked to accomplish. There's no doubt in my mind that IF Shabibi could have RV’d without GOI, he would have.
In truth, currency reform—the delete the zeros project--doesn’t exist in a bubble controlled by the CBI. The success of delete the zeros—Shabibi’s choice for currency reform—is dependent upon GOI cooperation, as perfectly evidenced by recent plethora of activity by Abadi and Parliament the past few months.
Shabibi (CBI) needed specific mechanisms put in place by the GOI--laws, bank regs, tariffs, HCL, whatever. Without those mechanisms—that foundation—properly set up and functioning, Shabibi knew he couldn’t do his preferred method (delete the zeros).
That's why Shabibi got frustrated and threatened to do a free float. Shabibi knew full well a free float would decimate Iraq’s economy so, IMO, Shabibi never actually intended to free-float the dinar at all.
This was just a threat, fueled by Shabibi’s frustration, to “call out” Maliki so he would get on board currency reform. Well, we know how that ended up for Shabibi.
After countless hours researching, it’s my opinion this RV would never have happened in 2012 or 2013 or even 2014 as long as Maliki was in office. Why?
Maliki (GOI) wasn't doing anything to promote currency reform and everything in his power to stall economic reform through graft, corruption, breaking hundreds of laws, and sabotaging any and all necessary infrastructure from occurring.
More importantly, even after Maliki was out of office, I knew that RV wouldn't instantly occur—within 48 to 72 hours--as stated by several intel sources and believed by the majority of the board. Why?
A developed, interconnected infrastructure consisting of key laws, banking and electronic system, etc. was not yet in place—so how could currency reform occur?
All I do know, without a doubt, is that we were wrong to assume currency reform could ever have happened before now. Why?
Delete the zeros is still the RV method of choice--a program envisioned by Shabibi that is not only visionary in what it will accomplish but complex in how it will interface with banking and legislation to propel Iraq forward as a sophisticated, modern economic mecca in the Middle East.
No doubt we are witnessing the events necessary for the RV to occur thru the warp speed manner in which Abadi and Parliament are working together regarding laws and infrastructure. IMO that is a sign currency reform will eventually happen—when everything properly aligns--which I believe is close.
I’m peaceful in the wait as at least now an RV is possible … which IMO was never true during Shabibi’s time nor when Maliki was in power.
My hope now is that Shabibi will return as I’ll take that as a sign it is about to happen. ;) Good to see you on the board, Tlar. Though we don't always see eye to eye, there is always respect between us--which I value. Blessings to all ~ DW
Rockstar: Thanks DreamWeaver for your posts also as I agree with everything you just said! There is no way Shabibi was going to free float the currency. All it takes is common sense and research but the gurus will have you believe otherwise because they have very different motives.
One thing that I can not stand is I was just passing on the Intel I was told in order to not take any and all accountability for telling the entire dinar community that information.
Any educated researcher knows exactly what you have said DreamWeaver, there is no way the RV could actually happen before everything is in place first! They have one chance basically to get it right or it would destroy their already fragile economy IMO!
Brule: I thought the Tlar's story of the son viewing the new currency on pallets was an untold public story. I don't recall see it on DA, and I received my info via email from Tlar. Tlar asked me to keep it to myself, and I have until today when I verified Blue's statement. Maybe I missed the statement on DA.
Shabibi was unable to implement his plan due to Maliki, and then went to the "float" plan because he did not need to get government approval for that move. Shabibi devised another plan to go around the government to achieve his goal for Iraq, and then Maliki has an arrest warrant issued.
DreamWeaver: Brule, Remember reading about son viewing pallets--assumed to be new currency destined for Iraq--but it wasn't original post. Someone talking about it back in 2013.
Also, Shabibi was not able to implement the plan because he never had cooperation from Maliki as far as infrastructure (laws, etc) required for delete the zeros.
Though it certainly appears Shabibi devised another plan to counteract Maliki, I don't really think it was ever Shabibi's intention to free float the dinar.
I truly believe Shabibi hadn't fully given up on delete the zeros and hoped to get Maliki on board with a threat to just float the dinar. Obviously, Maliki took the threat seriously by his actions against Shabibi--which was a miscalculation on Shabibi's part.
Seems few people, in 2012, recognized Maliki as a ruthless dictator, bent on gobbling all of Iraq's treasure. IMHO, Shabibi would never have floated dinar.
Maybe we'll know the truth after all this unfolds. Though I would be hard pressed to read one more word about Iraq. Best thoughts, Brule. Appreciate all you bring to CC.
Brule: For those of us that value Tlar's analysis, below are is comments from 2/3/13, two yers ago,, regarding Shabibi's move to a float:
As we know there has only been a 4 pip move since January of 2009 when the IMF ask him to prove he could control the dinar at 1170 as part of a practice run for bring the dinar out. All they way through this process including the study done for the CBI in 2008, the target has been about a dollar.
Recent articles in April and again in May of last year said the target was 1 to 1 and that the smalls would be being released in September of 2012. We also know that the government was vehemently against this and so Shabibi ultimately changed to a float.
The study done in 2008 also suggested that they do a float but that was after they raised the currency value to $1.13 and support it there for two years.
This is why I believe that Shabibi was asked to do the dry run in 2009, holding the currency stable for 12 months, and also why after successfully holding the dinar at 1170 for the year, he announced to forex in January 2010 that he would re-denominate the dinar by the end of 2010.
We both agree that there will a float Kap. Recent articles that you and others have brought to this site have once again started to mention dropping the zeros. I am hopeful they are as accurate as the exchange rate regime articles are because neither of these things are in conflict.
I believe it just depends on what you see in the articles as it is with many of the articles we read.
Here is my take. Shabibi ran scared in Sept of last year. Something made him decide to get off the removal of the zeros. He obviously came to the conclusion that this was a battle he could not win having stated over and over he was waiting for the approval of the government.
He lobbied parliament for two years, all through 2011 and 2012 to make the government come around. Parliament did come around but the government did not for reasons we can only speculate.
Finally Shabibi felt he could not wait any longer because he was being accused on the one hand of being the person who was messing the economy up and slowing progress in Iraq. These accusations from the government put him in a no win situation for Shabibi.
Maliki and boys were making him the scapegoat for the economy. If he did not do something with the currency, they would point the finger at him. If he did do something he would have to face Maliki.
He chose to take the low road by just bring the currency out and letting market forces take over.
We know that did not happen either. Maliki issued arrest warrants for him and Saleh and most other important top employees in the bank. He installed what he thought was his "yes" man to take over the bank. What he did not count on is Turki is neither a fool nor is he stupid.
One of the very first things Turki did was reiterate to parliament the bank is independent. I think Turki has been working behind the scene with Shabibi. Thats just my speculation though.
The point is that if you watch Turki, it is like Shabibi is still there. Everything from the auctions to the changes in the banking system are pretty much what Shabibi was doing.
It is because of these things that I believe there will be an RV simultaneously followed by a float. I believe the CBI is back on track.
I also believe Maliki is beaten back enough that the bite is almost gone out of this dog. Most all institutions are acting as though they are no longer afraid of him. In addition the IMF, the WB and now our Treasury Dept have all camped out at the CBI.
I don't believe they are not there just to let the currency float or any long term investigate of Shabibi. I think preparations are being made with Turki/Shabibi to get the currency ready to be brought to market.
Also if they have decided to go just with a float, they will have to make what currency is left in Iraq last at least until the value is strong enough to bring out the smalls.
Maybe they can do this but I don't see how when even cab drivers, government employees, etc. won't except the currency because of the condition. They need to do something or they need to completely dollarize Iraq.
For the time being or a least until the price goes high enough to again, "bring out the new currency". I believe the value is not settled as of yet as to how the change will take place.. The story is still unfolding. All of this is IMHO.
Jdinar: Nice blast from the past Brule. Looking at this today, it does seem like Tlar had some good logic behind the game plan - however nobody knew how trenched in Maliki was and still lingers around like toxic waste. Most of us today would probably say this dog has no more bite...maybe a tooth showing.
Interesting that the 4 pip move was back on Jan 17th, 2012. Time to test this pratice run again and move out of that drudging program rate.
Jdinar Tlar, thanks for taking the time to explain your thoughts and timelines in the past.
I have oftern wondered if Selah is serious or just throwing out some propaganda to balance the speculators. I have only seen one article about the Maliki/keywords on the Shabibi lawsuit and that was from some unknow source...not sure about that one.
People always say "follow the money" or in this case follow the urgency in getting that budget done with other laws perhaps being tweeked before the ISX opens.
I often wondered why that big delay from the first reading of the budget to the second lost it's sense of urgency. Perhaps, that dangled carrot is on its last leg...rotting for sure...
Jdinar Of course, now I see an article Hi-five put out about Selah wanting to form a joint committee to monitor the budget ( year round as hi-five suggested ) because the COM's are hard to work with along with the oil drop and security crisis. Perhaps this was one of Selah's reasoning for holding it off...who knows.