Aloha Alex: We are witnessing an amazing move! The new POP is sticking it to Malaki and I'm sure he is pissed to no end. If Malaki is futile in any attempt of rebuttal, it will mean the true begining of his loss of power in a concrete and visible manner.
We may see some crazy stuff coming from his camp between now and tomorrow
Mike: Tlar, what version of the budget do you think they'll vote on this Wednesday?
The reason I ask is that the budget Parliament currently holds is the same one rejected by the Kurd's and Sunni's in the last session. Has the Finance Minister re-submitted a revised 2014 budget?
Mike Continues: Procedurely, the FM and Finance Committee hammer out the budget and then submit it to Parliament for ratification. As far as I know, the budget begins in the CoM and committee's, not Parliament.
I'm hoping that Parliament can get the President and the two VP's elected this Wednesday, then he can call on the NA to present their nominee for PM. That would be a huge accomplishment!
Procedurely, electing the PM is the same as the President, so maybe Parliament will have the same opportunity to vet and vote on multiple personalities for PM. If so, then Maliki will lose numerically.
I would be very surprised if Parliament approved the previous budget this close to installing a new PM. This is Iraq, though, anything's possible. :)
Rissas Dad: Mike, werent there articles stating Jabouri's committee was working on reviewing the budget? Perhaps this committee is revising (ie removing Maliki's BS) from it so they can get to work right away reading and passing it?
Mike: That's a good point, Rissas. There are talks about creating committee's to review the budget and submit changes that will enable it to pass.
There were several key points that needed to be addressed like the Kurd's 17% and the punitive clauses directed at them for production. The provinces have also refused this budget because Maliki removed the $5 per barrel that was pumped from the oil producing regions.
Also, there is a lot of discussion about the Executive Branch's control and regulation of public monies, Maliki really loosened the purse strings and empowered his branch of government. Bottom line, there wasn't enough support for the existing budget.
Procedurely, the Finance Minister and Finance Committee submit budget's to Parliament, not the other way around. Parliament isn't constitutionally empowered to create budgets for Iraq, they approve or reject them.
Ralph: Virtue: the existence of a serious desire to pass budget
21:04 07/22/2014 Confirmed a member of the House of Representatives on the mass of Virtue parliamentary Ola Aiv return to the presence of a serious desire of the members of the House of Representatives in approving the general budget of the country and the need for state institutions to be ratified as soon as.
She told Aiv in the Iraqi street, awaiting the approval of the general budget as soon as the completion of stalled projects, which impacted negatively on the country's economy, which hit the state facilities completely paralyzed http://www.waradana.com/news/iraq/19/54348/
Mike: Thanks, Revbo. I'll admit, I still don't get it. Iraq is broke, projects that are already approved and in progress have been stopped becuse there's no money available. I guess it's important that the projects are now legal, but if you're broke, you're broke.
HandOverFist: Mike, if they have an RV then they're not broke anymore.
Mike: If I had a dollar for every time I heard the budget had the RV in it I wouldn't be broke anymore either. :) Honestly, I think this is just another snipe hunt.
Both Shabibi and Turki told us that they need a stable government before any changes would be made. I don't think we'll see anything change until the President, PM and CoM are settled, because that's what Turki wants.
Rissas Dad: Im with you mike. Budget is probably connected to what we want but not more than a seated stable government (without jack-leg)
HandOverFist: The way I understand it, Mike, they need the RV to FUND the budget...........so if they pass the budget, they've got to fund it (with an RV
Mike; For now, the budget's are directly tied to oil revenue, not an RV. Iraq uses both the dinar and the dollar when determining each year's budget for clarity.
If you calculate how much oil they pump you'll see that the budget matches up almost perfectly. (2012's budget did run at a small deficit) An RV would change the amounts in the budget, but until Iraq has some other form of revenue, that's what they peg their budget to.
Iraq has created budget's for years and funded the government through their oil revenue. If Iraq RV's north of $3.00, this will greatly reduce the cost of infrastructure costs, becuase their currency is worth three times what the dollar is worth, effectively reducing their costs by 66%.
That's the chief benefit of an RV to Iraq right now, that and international recognition of their currency.
Rissad Dad: Yes maam, been hearing that too for years. We've had budgets but no RV. Therefore have to file this as "guru lore".
HandOverFist: Didn't Tlar tell us this, about RV funding the budget? Am I mistaken?
Mike: I can't speak for Tlar. Maybe he knows something I/we don't know or understand. But, I've heard for years that the RV was hidden inside a budget and that Iraq just needed to open it for us to realize our gains.
I will say that the current budget Parliament holds is probably the same one Maliki and the FM sent in Feb/Mar, if anyone knows of a re-submitted budget please speak up.
It was pretty clear from the response from the Kurd's, Sunni's and the provinces that they did not like this budget and would not approve it. So I ask, what's changed since then?
The only folks calling for the budget to get in front of Parliament is Oula Leyeith and Haitham Al-Jabouri, both are Maliki's people. Isn't it curious that the Kurd's and Sunni's are quiet about the budget?
I think it's because only Maliki and his folks are concerned with the budget right now, for what reason, I don't know.
I do think Parliament is grabbing the bull by the horns and re-working it before they re-submit it to the new FM and Finance committee, but Parliament is not empowered to create and approve their own budget, that's the job of the FM and FC.
Tlar: Mike, Iraq is not broke. They have no money because they have not passed a budget yet. The money will start to flow and these projects will be funded as soon as the budget is passed. The budget fiasco is the reason the projects were halted to begin with. Tlar
HandOverFist: So, Tlar, are you saying they need the RV to fund the budget? Or do they fund it from oil revenues?
Mike: Today, July 22nd, Iraq is broke, once they pass the budget, they won't be broke anymore, that's all I'm saying. Of course, once they re-tool the budget and pass it, they'll have money to pay salaries and re-start the infrastructure projects and put these folks back to work.
Quick question, has the FM re-submitted a new budget to Parliament for a vote or is this the same budget that was sent earlier this year? Thanks in advance for your response.
BlueyesinLevis: As far as I knew.... the budget was ok.. but it had a bad paragraph added by Sharistani and Maliki. How difficult could it be for Joubari to delete the offending paragraph.. adjust the Kurds 17% to 25% ( Based on the Kirkuk Region) and BINGO.. the budget is all good.
I know.. it is Iraq after all.... lol Then there is the idea, based on a few articles, that they are going to pass the 2015 budget at the same time as well?.... all we can do is wait.
As far as the secret vote for PoR... yikes. I hope it goes better than the secret votes on the Survivor Tribal Council's.... I am looking forward to them extinguishing Maliki's torch... and telling him ... "time to leave the Council area, you've been voted off of the Island."
Tlar: RV is just an RV. As the value of exchange rate goes up, all costs will come down by the same amount including debt and salaries.
The only wealth creation will be in the money in the streets as far as Iraq is concerned just like it is for you and me.. The RV is just a part of restructuring of monetary policy and has nothing to do with work stoppage taking place in Iraq right now..
The reason that these projects were stopped is because the budget that was supposed to be passed on January 1st, is still not passed and the monies stopped flowing.
These are mostly multi year infrastructure projects and funding has to be in each budget each year very much like when after years of funding the Super Collider, our congress decided to remove it from the budget one year in other words stop funding it, and it killed the project.
Much of large infrastructure projects is done over consecutive years and even though there exists a known plan, monies to continue these projects have to be re-allocated each year in the budget.
It is as true with the Iraqi budgets as it is here in the US.. It is like funding for departments in Iraq.
If they don’t get funded they are operating on a wish and a prayer many unable to pay salaries months at a time.
There exists some monies for emergencies such as this but it is not enough to carry on large projects.
They have to be refunded each year. Without a budget, salaries stop for many, projects are stopped or shut down, many items planned for are on permanent hold until they get a budget.
Once they pass a budget these will start to flow again and i6 has nothing to do with the RV and everything to do with passing a budget.
That is why it is extremely important to get the budget done and thank god for Jubouri.
If this was left up to the present government, they would continue to play games hoping to starve Kurdistan into submission all the while casting blame on everybody themselves. tlar
Mike: I believe there were several other items as well, funds paid to oil producing provinces were removed as well as language related to Executive Branch controls and expenditures.
I don't see the Kurd's getting 25% of the budget yet, Article 140 has not been legally settled yet. Sure, the Kurd's control Kirkuk right now, but this will have to be addressed later so that re-settlement issues, compensation and the government functions can be changed to reflect Kurdish control.
I don't believe Parliament can solve all these issues in time for a vote tomorrow.
RDiddy: Can someone help me understand why many believe the budget needs to be passed prior to the RV? I'm foggy on this point and would really appreciate some clarification.
BlueyesinLevis: Oh, yes.... I agree Mike.. the budget wont get worked on tommorrow... heck... they will be lucky if all they do is get the names of the candidates written in a book. These guys never get stuff done quickly or in bulk.
That said.... we will see if they actually follow through with the vote for PoR... crossed fingers.
My comments about the budget were kinda generic... just wondering aloud if it really will be that difficult to do.. once they take out the SoL/Dawa trash... and there were those articles about the 2015 budget being tied to 2014.... hmmm?
Mike: Blue, Wouldn't it be great if they actually got the President and the VP's elected tomorrow! It would be another great day for Iraqi poitics, the budget will get handled once the GOI is settled
Tlar: rDiddy, I will tell you what I believe and then I will take the heat. The Finance committee wrote this budget. They told us in three articles in November of last year that they wrote it at a different rate for 2014 than the 1166 that the dinar was at.
They also stated based on the new rate they scetched out the 2015 and 2016 budgets.
If they were not just speaking out of the left side of their mouths, this is the first time we have ever seen in articles them stating that this budget has a different rate change in it.
If it does have a rate change then logically the dinar value has to equal that change because this is Iraq and their budget will be written in dinars.
For example and that's what this is. If the budget allocates 1 million dinars for a project and the Finance guys wrote the budget meant to reflect the dinar at a 1 to 1 exchange value, then they intended the recipient of this part of the budget to get 1 million dinars equal to 1 million USD at 1 to 1.
If the CBI does not change the value of the dinar to equal 1 to 1 but leaves it at 1166 to one USD, then the recipient would receive approximately 1000 USD value to do a 1 million USD value project. It is vital that the budget and the money reflect the same value.
Why would they write a budget that is for a different value than the value of the present dinar? To coordinate the budget with the CBI's change in value of the currency is the short answer.
The CBI and the Finance committe have been planning this project since 2010 and it would make sense that they would work together using specific amounts and specific start times based on dates or events.
It is my belief this is now based on an event more than a date because the date is a moving target and passing the budget will be a fixed event.
That event being the budget itself being made retroactive back to an agreed specific start date. That date could end up as January 1st or April 1st. It makes no difference given the importance of the project.
Once the budget is passed I believe we will see the RV but that is based on what the Finance committee told us in November of last year about how they wrote the budget.
All right guys, have at me but please debate me respectfully don't just trash me. Tell me why I'm wrong based on what I have said and you believe, knowing we have never heard from anyone except gurus about these two items being put together.
I believe for the first time the RV and budget are together also acknowledging this is the first time ever we were told in advance that the budget for 2014 was written in a rate different from the 1166 we have come to know and love by the guys who wrote it. Go ahead. I'm all ears. tlar
Mike; No bashing, just more questions :) Hasn't the draft budget been released for review? If the rate was in the budget, wouldn't that defeat the secrecy of the event to prevent arbitrage? ‘
I've seen numbers of 180 trillion dinars that are attached to the 2014 budget, that would indicate that the rate is not in the budget, no country has a budget of 180 trillion dollars. (If the rate was 1-1)
You're right, guru's in the past have linked the rate to past budget's, and budgets come and go without the RV. Anything's possible, this is Iraq, but I haven't seen any evidence in the budget submitted suggesting an RV. Let me know what you think, respectfully, Mike.
HandOverFist: Okay now! That's more like it. I knew you said something about the budget and the RV (budget written at new rate). I just didn't remember it exactly right. Thanks Tla
Mally: thought there was something about them needing to do budgets two years at a time according to the imf to be article 8 compliant? This is the first budget post chapter 7 sanctions and it would just make sense to me that they would do their monetary reform before the budget is passed but they dont always do what makes sense to me.
Tlar: Mike, That is an interesting question to which I can only speculate. I also saw that and you are correct. I came out about a week or two after the budget was written.
Were it me that was in charge and I had to release it but at the same time I wanted to keep it silent, I would have asked the FC to produce a dummy version for the press showing the same allocations at the presnt rate of 1166 and that's what I would have given the press.
It sounds deceptive but the numbers would be right but would be transposed to reflect the 1166 instead o9f the new rate. Just my speculation Mike as is alot about this investment.
If we had all the answers, there would be no questions. It is only when they open the budget will we really know. I am coming to my conclusions on the outcome by those three articles only. Tlar
LuckyLady: The budget first and then the RV or vice versa has been bantered about for an awfully long time. Tlar's conclusions make as much sense as any of them do and I don't pretend for one minute to know whose correct or not.
I'm just wondering if they open the budget and there is no RV shortly thereafter.....then what?? What could we possibly be waiting on then, besides a stable government and how long will it have to be "stable"
Tlar: The order doesn't matter if I'm right. They go hand in hand and one will closely preceed or follow the other. If they don't I haven't got a clue where this goes from there.
They have to be tied together or my whole premise is wrong. Unacceptable to me. They are tied together or for sure there will be no tlar left by the time they pick my bones clean. Tlar
Luckylady: Well, I can't think of anything more distressing than the thought of your bones being picked clean so here's to a budget and an RV or vice versa. It doesn't really matter to me.
Thank you tlar.