Tlar & Friends Q & A With Comments From Updated Email To Family & Friends Part 2
Jonathan Simmons: Thanks for your response but I'm still not getting an answer to my specific question. If you or anyone knows please Are there assurances given to the NA that Badr's (or any other) bloc can pull a switcheroo and vote for the SOL once the voting commences.
Is it possible that this could be part of a ruse to think the NA now has the numbers and lead them into thinking the NA's candidate will win when in reality they vote for Maliki?
Just because they vote for NA in the bloc voting doesn't mean they have to come the actual vote in Parliament. Is there something Badr would have had to sign to lock his support in place?
RDiddy: I may be wrong, but I believe that the POR is going to call on the NA to nominate their one candidate, and that person (and his COM) are going to get a yes or no vote. This isn't a multiple choice vote. But let's get some other opinions on this.
Tlar: old, I'm not sure but I believe you maybe confusing the process of the NA and parliament. When the NA hones the 5 to one, they will take the one to parliament.
Most likely it will be a two step process within the coalition. The coalition will first decide amongst themselves who they want probably by secret ballot, then they will present the nominees to the NA floor for an up or down vote with the coalition voting in locked step specifically for their guy.
So no matter who the SOL runs, if the coalition has over 90 MP's (half plus 1) all voting in locked step it is all over. It is my belief they will have way more than 90 but that is yet to be seen. So the SOL can really put up anybody they want. It makes no difference.
The coalition in my mind is leaving nothing to chance on this. There will be no vote until they are sure they have the numbers and have decided on their one guy to back.
The coalition is in process of sorting out their nominee internally within the coalition only, Chalabi or Mahdi.
That most likely will be done just as Kurds did it, secret ballot within coalition not the NA. ‘
Once the coalition has decided on their one guy then the vote will take place in the NA. Then the NA at large will go to parliament with one nominee only.
Everything I have mentioned above is taking place in the NA only and once they identify that nominee, then al-jubouri will hold parliament and Masum will ask the NA who is their nominee and then Masum announce the new Shia nominee for PM. tlar
KJ Wayne: Jonathan, to answer your question and be sure about it ,I would have to say NO. This is Iraq and nothing is assured over there. After years of being in this ride and learning as I went, I would bet that Badr is OUT of the SOL,period. Signing stuff in Iraq don't mean squat. It will be settled when the NA votes for one and only one.Then that one has to pass the test in parliament or do it again.
Oldwazhisname: Thanks Tlar, that is what I was saying, albeit less elegantly. Could you also clarify that the mere naming a a PM candidate is not the "formation of the GOI"?
Wouldn't that only be after the PM elect has publicly presented his list of ministers of government and after the Parliment has voted in favor of that list of total ministers?
Also, is there any dickering that goes on to replace a given governmental minister with another or is that all part of the process of bargaining for votes in the first place?
Is it possible, if say the SOL says , okay in order to have say Mahdi as NA's PM candidate, we want our guy as Defense Minister. Can that guy be stripped out of the list or is it "an all or nothing" kind of situation?
Tlar: oldwazhisname, it is not a legal government until the up or down vote on the nominees picks for the ministries and the COM. Only then do we have the complete "change" and a new government..
Not until the new PM presents his government ministers and COM is it considered a new seated government because this part has to be done by a vote in the parliament.
Once the ministers are known along with the COM, the PM elect will present them to parliament for a up or down vote.
The new PM constitutionally has to provide these names within 30 days to accomplish this.
He doesn't have to take all 30 days but he can't take longer.
Then parliament has to have a majority up or down vote on his government. If it is a down vote meaning more vote no to his list, then the POR will pick another nominee for the PM position and the process starts all over again.
Allawi in 2010 stated he was ready to go if picked as the nominee and could seat a government within 48 hours.
Maliki never did seat his government choosing to keep all security ministries under his control which was his first violation of the constitution which he then preceded to violate over and over for the next 8 years.
It will be different this time as Iraq has seen the value of a constitution and has actually started using it as a tool of proof.
It is my belief that once a PM nominee is chosen, that his picks are already done and the Kurds and Sunni's already have negotiated with him as to what ministries they will get.
In other words his government will be voted on a few days after he is nominated and its outcome is predetermined and pre-negotiated with all sects in the coalition.
I also believe That Turki will see the government as settled upon the NA picking of a nominee that is acceptable to all and won't wait for the ministries to be announced.
I could be wrong and Turki might want to see the government seated first, but because this should have already been over and the year is slipping by, I believe he is anxious to get going with monetary change. Tlar
Tlar: PS it is also my belief that Turki's definition of the term settled means that the government is basically decided. ‘
At the point the NA choose a nominee either Chalabi or Mahdi, in my mind it is a forgone conclusion Maliki is out and a new government will be in.
I personally think the monetary change is so late now that Turki may decide its over and settled even though not seated. I am very hopeful he will pull the trigger here but am fully cognizant he may wait until that government is finished and seated.
It is kind of like the term largest block. Once that was concluded and defined to be the NA, everything else has fallen into position to finish this process.
The word settled is a loose term only to be defined in Turki's mind. So it's a best guess that I am making at best. Tlar
Jaxjags: Also,......while waiting on the GOI Turki has not stop with pushing the Monetary Reform. Most recently, the CBI signed a contract with VISA/MasterCard. IMO..........the CBI is ready to complete this.
OMG................Turki has already said this!!!!
Gorwell: What at great thread. Thank you to everyone.Waiting...Cautiously optimistic!
Does anyone know how many totally comprise the COM?
Are ALL the positions specifically named positions like: Minister of Defense, Minister of Security, etc. or are some positions generic positions? Thanks, Gorwell
Oldwazhisname: Tlar, Great response and expansion on the fine points. Much appreciated for you taking the time to so completely explain your perspective on this. Thank you.
BlueyesinLevis: Great thread. Really educational... good questions.. great replies... nice back and forth. This really has become a top notch group.
I'll take a wild guess at how many form the CoM..for some reason.. it sticks in my mind...that I remember the number 30.I BELIEVE there are 30 members of the CoM. Bueller?
DeekonMoses: Hello Blue, I thought the PM's Cabinet/COM consisted of 40 ministers and 4 of those were soveren ministries.
If I remember correctly back in 2010 after Iraq held their general elections, Maliki’s opposition decided to give their support to him because of the "Barzoni Initiative," that initiative consisted of the Kurds 40 Points, the Strategic Counsel Planning, and the Kurds were suppose to get/head one of the 4 soveren ministries which was of the security/military ministries etc,
This was the Barzoni Initiative commonly known today as the Erbil Agreement.
After Maliki got parliaments vote of confidence to be the PM "candidate" he was now allowed to "present" his cabinet before parliament to get their vote of confidence for his cabinet.
Maliki presented all of them very quickly except the four soveren ministries, those four soveren ministries never got parliaments vote of confidence because Maliki kept them and the Barzani Initiative/Erbil Agreement never got "implemented" or saw the light of day etc.
You know the rest of the story. LOL. I could be wrong, that info is just off the top of my head and it has been a while; I would have to dig up my notes but I believe it's 40 COM, and that 40 includes the 4 soveren ministries too.
DeekonMoses: Actually, I think you were right blue. It is 30. LOL. IDK
BlueyesinLevis: Deek... what you wrote sheds a lot of light on it.. and if it is 40 or 30.. so be it. I don't care what the number is.. just looking forward them seating the dang charactors
I also had in mind that there were key Ministers, specificly Defense and Security, that were not part of the CoM.... and you alluded to that as well. -Like I said before.. we have a good group here.
DeekonMoses: Prime Minister: Nouri al-Maliki (State of Law (SOL)/Daawa) will also be acting ministers of Interior, Defense, and Minister of State for National Security until candidates can be approved.
Deputy Prime Ministers: Saleh al-Mutlaq (Iraqiya/Hewar); Hussain al-Shahristani (SOL/Independent) — with oversight of energy policy — and acting minister of electricity [but Reuters names Ziad Tarek as
Minister for Electricity; Roz Nouri Shawes (Kurdistan Alliance (KA)/Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)), and acting minister of trade.
Minister of Foreign Affairs: Hoshyar Zebari (KA/KDP) will also be acting minister of womens’ affairs.
Minister of Finance: Rafia al-Issawi (Iraqiya/Mustaqbal)
Minister of Oil: Abdul Karim al-Luaibi (independent but associated with Daawa)
Minister of Higher Education: Ali al-Adeeb [Ali Al Adib] (SOL/Daawa) will also be acting minister of state for national dialogue (reconciliation).
[Reuters names Amer Al Khizaii as State Minister for National Reconciliation Affairs]
Minister of Housing and Construction: Mohammed Sahib al-Daraji [Reuters names Mohammed Salem Al Laban] (Iraqi National Alliance (INA)/Sadrist)
Minister of Education: Mohammed Tamim (Iraqiya/Hewar)
Minister of Industry and Minerals: Ahmed Nassar Dali al-Karbouli [Ahmad Nader Dali] (Iraqiya/Tajdid)
Minister of Justice: Hassan Shimari [Hassan Al Shumari] (INA/Fadhila)
Minister of Culture: Saadoun al-Dulaimi [Saadun Al Dulaimi] (Wassat/Constitution Party)
Minister of Communication: Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi (Iraqiya/Wifaq)
Minister of Science and Technology: Abdul-Karim al-Sammaraie (Iraqiya/Tajdid)
Minister of Environment: Sargon Lazon Sliwah [Karkis Sleiwa] (Rafidain/Assyrian Democratic Movement)
Minister of Agriculture: Izzuldin al-Doula (Iraqiya/Iraqiyoun)
Minister of Displacement and Migration: Dindar Najman (KA/Islamist Coalition), will also be acting Minister of Municipalities and Public Works
Minister of Health: Majid Mohammed Amin (KA/PUK)
Minister of Human Rights: Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani [Mohammed Shayaa] (SOL/Daawa)
Minister of Labor and Social Affairs: Nasar al-Rubaie (INA/Sadrist), will also be acting Minister of Planning
Minister of Water Resources: Mohaned al-Sa’adi (INA/Sadrist)
Minister of Transportation: Hadi al-Amiri (INA/Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI))
Minister of Youth and Sport: Jassim Mohammed Jaffar (SOL/Daawa)
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs: Ali Abdullah al-Sajeri [Ali Al Sajri] (Wassat/Constitution Party)
Minister of State and Government Spokesman: Ali Dabbagh (SOL/Daawa)
Minister of State for Parliament Affairs: Safaa al-Din al-Saafi [Safaa’din Al Safi] (SOL/Independent)
Minister of State for Provincial Affairs: Turhan Abdullah (Iraqiya/Turkman)
Minister of Tourism and Antiquities: Liwa Smisim (INA/Sadrist)