jtdinar Thanks Tlar, looks like we wait some more....I now understand why Patience is a Virtue.....
Tlar: I don't believe we will have to wait much longer JT. For the first time there is an actual light we can now see at the end of this tunnel and it is shining bright. tlar
Moomnan1963: Yes Sir Tlar. Can I ask you, what is your take on the ISX closing for 11 days?
Looking at it through my handy dandy Dinar goggles, I'd say it would be prime time for a rate change. BUT, I've always been Mr. Optimistic, lol.
Mike: Tlar, do you think they'll put together a budget that the Kurd's will approve and Maliki will sign off on?
I've seen several articles about the budget and all of them are coming from the SOL. The Kurd's have been quiet as well as the Sunni's.
If there aren't changes made regarding punitive clauses and the percentage reset to 17%, I don't see the Kurd's supporting it. If they do make the changes, will Maliki support it?
Can Parlliament make changes to the budget and pass it without Maliki's approval? If so, I could see a budget passing, if not, why waste the time?
rocko: Good question Mike. Maybe Joubouri knows something we don't. The statement about there not having to be a full formed gov. to do this implies that they don't need a pres. or pm to do this. I guess we'll see.
Mike: Rocko, I think what Jabouri (SOL) guy is trying to say is that the GOI has already given approval for the budget and all Parliament has to do is approve it. But, the budget that the GOI is missing the $5 per barrel for the provinces and still includes the punitive clauses and smaller percentages for the Kurd's. I'd say the chances are very good to pass a budget as long as Maliki doesn't have to be involved. If he needs to sign off on it, it will be a while before we get a budget approved. Like you said, we'll see
Schiz: I'm wondering, does the 17% even matter any more to the kurds. I say this because they have taken back Kirkuk, rich in oil that place is, big time. What is going to happen with that and all the extra oil the kurds now have?
I think the new goi would be stupid to not pay them the 17% and more now. I think if they don't except it the kurds will just carry on selling it their own way and it will be Iraq that is the only loser in that deal.
IMO this will all be sorted out to favour the Kurds.
Ralph: Finance Minister calls to accelerate the formation of committees and adoption of the budget
Mike: I guess that's kind of what I'm talking about as well, Schiz. Kirkuk hasn't been settled yet, Article 140 has a lot of points that need to be quantified. Things like the census, re-settement, and compensation for those displaced. The Kurd's have taken over, because of ISIL, but it's not settled legally.
KJ brings up a good point as well. How many laws have been approved and submitted by Parliament, received a signature from the President, and then languished without implementation by Maliki? Too many to count.
Most of these articles relating to the budget are from the SOL, just like they did once Maliki submitted it. Maliki needs this budget approved to save face and to finance the government, Parliament is killing him with the delays.
I'm hoping that the budget is in committee now, where they will make the changes that will satisfy the provinces and Kurdistan. Once Maliki is removed, then Parliament can submit a revised budget and have it implemented.
I'm hoping my comments aren't viewed as negative, I'm blown away by the progress Iraq has made. This is a process, we have Speaker, it looks like we'll have the President on Wednesday.
Then Parliament will tackle the PM position, once that's settled I'll look for laws to be passed, the budget passed and then hopefully, an RV in the near future.
BlueyesinLevis: Heck, no , Mike, you are a valuable asset to this board.... nobody sees your intelligent, inquiring analysis as negative.
-Last time they talked numbers on the budget.. they were saying Kurds (with kirkuk) were mre in line with 25 % . No way is this budget gonna end up being Maliki's old one.
-Just gotta watch and wait..
Schiz: yeh the kurds won't be giving up kirkuk, ever. It is rightfully theirs taken from them by Saddam. There is no discussion there and i'm with the Kurds on that one.
The new goi best make a plan to work around that cos that problem aint goin away. Kirkuk is Kurdish and it has it's rightful owners again.
Mike, I don't read or see any negativity in your posts.
Wouldnt it be great to see the new POP voted in wednesday and they have ratified the budget and vote it off in the same session? high hopes? Nothing would surprise me in a positive way at the moment with this new parliament.
rissas dad: Good discussion. Though jabouri is saying all the right things on the budget, about being able to pass it before the PM is settled, I don't expect it that quickly.
Past experience is they don't work that quick.
However everything jubouri has done and said is counter to slow motion. One thing is for sure, this week will be interesting. I think we all will be on this page often looking for what gets done next. You have to be optimistic at what is happening.
BeastMaster: Why do you believe the POR will be enough for Turki to make his move. Is seems to me that this isn't over with M until it is over.
As I understand it, he is the PM until replaced. I get he's loosing power everyday but there's not telling what he would do and be able to do with a revalued currency.
Also, You once said you knew (maybe for fact?) that this had to be done by end of July. Hope to know what is you know or what makes you believe this... Looking forward to what this week brings.
Tlar: BeastMaster, Because the overall plan is late already and Turki is closer to this than we are. He of all people understands how important this is not just to Iraq but to the world economy.. tlar
XXXX: Tlar. Is this part of the last 3 emails you're supposed to send?
Tlar: No. I am trying to keep my family up to date as best as possible during this period because this plan is two weeks late.
Oldwazhisname: Thanks, TLar. BTW, have you heard from your source of late? Or has that source gone completely silent?
Tlar: He is watching it unfold just as we are. IMO there is nothing left to say. We already know what the plan is. tlar.
Moonman1963: Tlar, can I ask you, what is your take on the ISX closing for 11 days? Looking at it through my handy dandy Dinar goggles, I'd say it would be prime time for a rate change. BUT, I've always been Mr. Optimistic, lol. Thank you for everything you do for us here.
Tlar: Guys, this has been nothing short of a miracle that everything is finally going our way.
Getting rid of a dictator is not easy enough but organizing a bunch of self serving folks who don't really care about Iraq and prefer to feather there own nest made this an almost impossible task.
Hakim is the influencing factor that has held them all together. The glue so to speak and Maliki has provided the focal point of hatred.
The Kurds, the Sunni's, the Shia, the US, the UN and Europe should all be given a round of applause for waiting patiently until there is a new government in place to do anything to solve the problem, using the ISIS as an excuse to get rid of the Maliki government and Maliki.
No easy task without an overthrow. It has taken an international effort to rid this country of a wanna be dictator and to force those that still support him to change their ways.
Hats off to what many still don't believe is actually happening. We are witnessing history in its finest hour every day now. The outcome is easy to see for many but those that still don't should not be blamed.
To see they only need open their eyes but understandably, they have become jaded to this whole investment. They have just misunderstood what's going on and will continue to miss what is happening until it hits them in the face.
They too have bought the ticket and that alone makes them stronger than those who did not. They too will go on this ride.
I have nothing but good thoughts for them and I have come to realize that it is not their fault because this investment should have been over years ago but has dragged on and on..
So it is with open arms and pure heart that I say if it is good for one, I am happy for all.
No hard feelings to those that thought I was full of Shiite. The winner in all of this is all of us for staying the course.
Especially those that have taken the time to email me and tell me how wrong I am and how I have miss-lead everyone. I say thank you for making me stop and analyze everything I have said along the way.
Believe it or not, you played a big part in this; bigger than you know.