Tlar's long analysis is in Part 3
Tlar & Member Discussion On "Will Delete Zeros 2015" Part 2 of 3
RDiddy Regardless of what he said in his speech, and it sounds like 5 billion dinar/450 million dollars to me, I seriously doubt that he would intend to convey a post-RV value prior to the RV. It must have been an error in the script he was reading in the telepromper. I'm still holding out for 86 cents.-mrs d
livefreeThanks HOF, he said "nearly $450,000,000", so close to what he said in Germany. Now, how can he give that number based on it's current value? It obviously wasn't a slip of his tongue (twice) because you see him refer to notes now and then.
But again, how can he reveal this to the world and assume all of us dinarians won't be salivating and hanging on his every word?
The rv has been the biggest kept secret in the whole wide world (feels like it!) and then he gives us a heads up like this? I don't get it. But I'm with Rockstar and will need to buy more... in a hurry! I'm not in this to pay off a few bills, I need it to retire!
Mike I clicked on the link and listened, HOF, and he very clearly says " 5 billion Iraqi dinars, which is about $450 million US." Could he really make that big of a mistake in converting the currency? Or, is he saying it like he means to say it? Thanks for the link.
All PM's and Presidents have script writers so if the script writer made an error in his conversion of how many IQD's it takes to equal the dollar the mistake would have been caught the first time Abadi made the speech in Switzerland. And the writer would have gotten 30 lashes, lol.
I don't think this is a mistake, but why he would make that conversion in the first place and give us a hint is beyond me. I do of course hope he's lying and meant to convert to $35 per dinar otherwise it would make TNT Tony look like a fool and a liar. Now we can't have that now can we? I'm with Tony on this one! :lol::lol::lol:--
HandOverFist Mrs. Diddy - No teleprompter. Written notes.
Livefree - He seems (to me) to be a very honest man and tells it like it is.
Mike - I don't think it's a mistake because he said it twice. Billions in dinar converted to millions in dollars. (Trillions in dinar converted to billions in dollars just doesn't work in the context he used it.)
Brule Abadi is a smart guy, and with his resume, a good head for numbers. I would think he would pick up on a mistake of this magnitufe (if it was a mistake) and correct it right on the spot.
Rockstar HOF don't forget they don't have the word for trillions as discussed on here a few days ago. They call it billion thousands I think was the final consensus so maybe he is just saying billion meaning trillion, who knows just a thought.
HandOverFist Mike, How does 8.8 cents fit in with Zen Mav's spreadsheet? Or does it?
Livefree I agree Abadi meant to say it like he did and it was not a mistake. Still don't know why he'd give a heads up though. Time to dust off the dinar, count how much we have then multiply by .8c, divide by 2 (roughly) for paying taxes and see if we have enough left to fulfill our goals. I see a rush on buying dinars next week as we all go Yikes! --
HandOverFist Brule - I agree. Rockstar - They do have a word (now) for trillion. I've seen it written in articles - Trilliuna (sp). I think sometimes they use trilliuna and sometimes billion thousands. Also, trillion doesn't work in the context he spoke of.
Flyboy I also listen to it twice...and as you can see,he is reading from a teleprompter...no mistake in what he said...wheather its true or not is another matter...jmo
Mike I do think it fits, many of us have thought they would with a "correction" at first and then allow the dinar to gradually increase in value as the investment money comes in and Iraq creates a de-centralized economy.
Zenmav has found a way, for me, to explain and figure out how much dinar is in circulation. Right now, the M0 and M1 figures for the dinar is roughly 40 trillion, as per the CBI.
It would have been difficult, if not impossible, for the dinar to come out at a rate of .89 or 1.16 with so much dinar in clrculation, heck, even the US only has around 4 trillion in circulation, and there's no way Iraq's economy was going to support 40 trillion dollars worth of dinar.
So, for me, his spreadsheet shows us that it's almost inconceivable that Iraq has that much dinar in circulation, based on his employment statistics and other data.
I would agree that .08 or .09 would fit into Iraq's goals of creating a open market economy with an internationally traded currency that the country could support in it's current state.
They've greatly improved the purchasing power for the average Iraqi and opened the flood gates for potential investment. I would, of course, like a much higher rate, but who knows how long it would take, if Iraq could sustain the investment momentum, to reach a $1 or $2 per dinar?
HandOverFist Flyboy, No teleprompter used in Germany speech. He reads from notes Thanks so much, Mike. Very helpful.
Flyboy I took another look...you are right HOF...notes on the podium...
powerofprayer :Delta, At min 29.22 sec, Abadi states that 5 billion IQD equals 440 million USD. That is still at the current defacto rate of 1166. (440 million x 1,166 = 5 plus billion). Thank you sir,
DELTA: HI BROTHER, YOUR MATH IS NOT CORRECT SIR - 440,000,000 X 1166=513,040,000,000 " 513B NOT 5B" --- 5,000,000,000 DINARS X $0.088= $440,000,000 OR 440,000,000 / 5,000,000,000 = $0.088
powerofprayer » February 8th, 2015, 2:56 am Delta, You are correct. I stand corrected, too many zeros. I edited my post.
Delta, At min 29.22 sec, Abadi states that 5 billion IQD equals 440 million USD. That does not seem correct. 440,000,000 million USD X 1,166 = 521,839,978,000.00. Too many zeros.
The .088 cents seems too low to dedollarize Iraq. Thanks again.
Mike In my opinion, Iraq may have already begun de-dollarizing, they've slashed the auctions to $75 million per day. Once they move to Article VIII, the auctions will cease as well as the flow of dollars.
Preacher Man Currency Auctions Announcement No. (2882)
The latest daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 08-02-2015 results were as follows:
Number of banks 23
Auction price selling dinar / US$ 1166
Auction price buying dinar / US$ -----
Amount sold at auction price (US$) 73,300,000
Amount purchased at Auction price (US$) -----
Total offers for buying (US$) 73,300,000
Total offers for selling (US$) -------
Preacher Man 23 banks
Mike Street rate is 1230 today as well, thanks, PM
DreamWeaver Before going to sleep last night, the thought came into my mind that this was not a translation error or the cat slipping out of the bag.
As a court reporter, I was responsible for making certain punctuation was transcribed accurately--as many a case hangs in the balance (won or lost) on punctuation.
It changes the legal meaning as was drilled into our minds in school; and, actually, punctuation errors were counted the same as word errors. So, if you transcribed the words spoken correctly, you could still fail the test if you had too many punctuation errors.
So, I held this thought in my mind as I listened to the recording.
Here's my opinion; and I believe if you re-listen to recording in this light, you'll see exactly what Abadi was intending to say--and he said it perfectly.
Abadi has been in the news saying they are going to dedicate part of the budget to rebuiding damage caused to Iraq by Daash. In the recording, Abadi says that 5 billion Iraqi dinar have been set aside in the budget towards this goal.
Abadi then takes a breath and says something to the effect equaling $440,000 USD BUT he isn't converting the entire 5 billion to $440,000 USD when he says this figure.
He is starting to point out how much of that 5 billion allocation will go towards specific goals. He intends to share that $440,000 USD of the 5 billion dinar will go towards rebuilding Iraqi territories damaged by Daash. Abadi then goes on to continue his list by stating that $2 million USD will go towards helping displaced persons.
Although Abadi doesn't account for exactly where the rest of the total 5 billion dinars is going in relation to Daash, I'm going to assume it is because those aren't the major categories Abadi wanted to showcase in his speech. The speech wasn't an accounting to the penny of where 5 billion dinars will be spent.
It was about letting the world and Iraqi citizens know that help is coming to them when the budget opens. Specifically, help for repaying physical damage to Iraq as well as helping displaced persons relocate to new homes.
That's what the citizens are concerned about: 1) repair our territories (homes, cities) and 2) help us find new dwellings or whatever else is provided to displaced victims.
So, this part of Abadi's speech is all about assuring Iraqi citizens that monies from the budget have been allocated to rebuild Iraq (territories, infrastructure, social fabric) and help displaced Iraqi citizens.
Sorry, guys. This isn't about exchange rate at all. This is a "verbal punctuation error" as it's really just about two subcategories, of that 5 billion, and what they will be spent on in relation to damages by Daash.
Listen to it again and I'm sure it will become clear that Abadi is just pointing out how much money--of that 5 billion dinar--will be spend specifically on rebuilding territories ($440,000 USD) and assisting displaced Iraqis ($2 million USD).
In one way, I'm relieved as I absolutely do not believe we will see less than $1.00 - $1.17 RV.
I've presented my case. You decide. :P Thanks, HOF, for bringing over the condensed 3 minute version. Made it super easy to figure this out. Hugs to you all, DW
PS -- Sigh of relief. No one needs to rush out, yet, and buy more dinar. LOL.
Livefree Ok DW, now you've gotten me all confused. Everywhere you wrote $440,000 instead of Abadi's 440 Million dollars. Was that on purpose or did you make a punctuation error? lol. I like your version better but if true then it's back to speculation time.
Brule Maybe this will help:
Budget included an item to establish a fund for the reconstruction of the affected areas, the World Bank stands ready to support it
Sunday, December 11 2 / January 2015 13:02 [Baghdad-where]
The Ministry of Planning announced the 2015 budget included a special item for the establishment of a special fund for the reconstruction
of areas affected by the terrorists Daash gangs, part of the World Bank expressed its readiness to support the fund.
According to a ministry statement received by all of Iraq [where], a copy of it today, "The Planning Minister Salman Jumaili Search with the Special Representative of the Mission of the World Bank in Iraq Robert presence during his meeting with him in the ministry's headquarters in fact funded by the World Bank projects in the framework of the national strategy to mitigate Poverty in Iraq. "
"We also discussed the possibility of the Bank to provide appropriate loans to help the Iraqi government to rebuild cities damaged by the terrorist attacks, as well as the construction of mobile hospitals to provide medical services to the displaced families and destroyed by terrorism."
Minister Jumaili said during the meeting that "the economic situation in Iraq is facing difficulties due to the drop in oil prices in the global market requires finding suitable to compensate for the problem of low prices resources", adding that "the important problem that Noajajha today is displaced who have left their cities because of the terrorist attacks as damaged those cities around large and become a bilateral problem. "
"The Tlob from the government to do the reconstruction of these cities, particularly in the residential side, where entire neighborhoods exposed to destruction, as well as the need to provide the appropriate requirements of life for the displaced who were deployed in all the provinces of Iraq."
He called Jumaili the World Bank to "the need to contribute to the rebuilding of cities and help the displaced by providing for the construction of residential complexes fast alternative to revive the destructive loans along with building mobile hospitals to provide appropriate medical services for the displaced process wherever they are."
He announced the "Include the state budget for the year 2015 a special item for the establishment of a special fund for the reconstruction of the affected areas with a capital of  billion dinars,"
calling on the World Bank to "support the fund through appropriate structural prepare him and to provide grants and loans to help to do the job that came for. "
The statement said the World Bank expressed its readiness to assist Iraq in the preparation of structural reconstruction fund Almdharrh cities and contribute hard in the search for sources of financing trends Iraqi government in the reconstruction process and building mobile hospitals, "noting that" the possibility that the Iraqi private sector plays an important role in this area ".
He pointed out that "the World Bank managed over the years to help the Iraqi side in the implementation of many of the important projects in the electricity, agriculture and transport sectors,"
noting that "Among the projects that the bank contributed to the implementation of a project to produce electricity at a cost of $ 750 million and another for drinking water Card 150 000 cubic meters provides water to the capital of Baghdad for 5 hours straight, "pointing to" the existence of other projects, including Basra irrigation project at a cost of $ 80 million and will be completed in August next. "
He added that "there was a project last to put the safety signs on the Iraqi railway network stretching from Baghdad to Umm Qasr at a cost of million dollars, as well as participate in the rehabilitation of the road from southern Iraq until the Jordanian border westward along the 1000 km for the Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works of Iraq."
He expressed his presence on the World Bank ready to help Iraq in a lot of areas that will push the pace of development forward, ".anthy
Preacher Man I agree Dwight, I mean, DW,,n one way, I'm relieved as I absolutely do not believe we will see less than $1.00 - $1.17 RV.--
Mike Thanks, Brule. I couldn't see how much 5 billion dinar would help the displaced unless they moved up the value. Now it looks like he mispoke and was supposed to say 500 billion dinars, which is roughly $440 million.
That being said, how in the world could the PM of the country make such a big mistake, publically, and twice on top of it?
HandOverFist Mike, How, indeed, could Abadi have made such a mistake, twice?
Is it possible that whomever wrote the article changed the figure thinking that Abadi made a mistake? Or am I grasping at straws?
Brule HOF, I think you are referencing the article I just posted, and if so, the article is dated Janary 2, 2015, over a month ago.
DreamWeaver LOL, Livefree. Funny. Sorry, was in a hurry. You know, in looking at this my post doesn't at all solve the exact exchange rate. So , I have a calculation and punctuation error. :P
No time to get into it now and analyze; and I didn't really have time when I popped on to listen to recording. What happens when rushing around.
All I do know is that Abadi was not saying 5 billion dinars = 450 million USD (or whatever the exact figure was). Abadi just listed two specific categories and amounts.
We don't yet know if the budget figure allocated at time budget is signed will be 500 million or 5 billion dinars. They may have changed it from 500 million to 5 billion. So, IMO there's no way at all to determine exchange rate from any of this.
The proof will be in the budget. We'll see those allocations, hopefully, this week. Until then I'm going to just find a peaceful place to practice typing on my smart phone. LOL. Thanks, Livefree. Appreciate you correcting this. DW.
HandOverFist Brule, Yes, I was referencing your article. Didn't notice the date. Thanks for pointing it out. So then, no one changed what Abadi said.......since the article came out before he made any speeches.
Well, I just don't know. How could Abadi make such a mistake? It would be like Obama saying the US has budgeted 5 million dollars for rebuilding cities, instead of 5 billion. You would think he would catch himself making such a big mistake. It doesn't make sense to me that he did this twice.
HandOverFist DreamWeaver, Listen to the speech Abadi gave in Germany and see if you come to the same conclusion you did when listening to the 3 minute excerpt from Davos. I don't think you will reach the same conclusion.
DreamWeaver HOF, we don't know if they decided to increase allocation towards Daash from 500 million to 5 billion dinars in the budget, do we?
Your postings are interesting. Not ready to toss them aside. By same token, not going to put any more brain cells into it as it is a little befuddling. It could be, the cat's tail slipped out of the bag. :D
Gijane Good stuff DW. I look forward to at least 1:1, but not going to worry about it at this stage.
DreamWeaver HOF, I will do just that when I have time to listen to all of both recordings. Right now I've only time to grab coffee and run. Love a puzzle and this certain is a puzzler that you've presented. Thanks for bringing it over. DW.
CASHMONEY yall are crazy - I would take .09 and RUN!!
HandOverFist Don't know how much more of this I can take. Yes No, Yes No, Yes No :lol::lol::lol:
Enorrste refutes Zen Mav's chart.
The following chart shows a rough estimation of the actual number of notes in Iraq and their total value. The reader will note that I obtained this information from an email I received about 10 days ago in which someone actually found the relative percentages of the various notes in the CBI website.
I have not seen that site and can’t find the email at this time, but the percentages here are as good as I can remember
The point is this: there are currently about 4 billion notes in circulation and the total value of the notes is about 42 trillion dinars. This is consistent with the CBI statements over the last several weeks.
While ZenMav’s presentation is very interesting, the fact is that the most prolific notes in circulation are the 25000 and 10000 notes, not the 1000 note, which is worth only $1.
Just as in our economy the $20 and $10 bill are the most used, similarly the 25000 dinar ($25) and 10000 dinar ($10) notes are the most used. Therefore, ZenMav’s analysis is incorrect.
NOTE % # OF NOTES DINAR VALUE
25000 28% 1120000000 2.8E+13 28 trilion
10000 23% 920000000 9.2E+12 9.2 trillion
5000 20% 800000000 4E+12 4 trillion
1000 17% 680000000 6.8E+11 680 billion
500 7% 280000000 1.4E+11 140 billion
250 5% 200000000 50000000000 50 billion
100% 4000000000 4.207E+13 42.07 trillion dinars
Therefore 4 billion notes in circulation is equal to 42 trillion dinars, according to this chart. The article that refers to reducing from 4 billion to 1 billion is therefore referring to the number of notes, not their value.
Notice in the chart above that if you remove all of the "3 zero notes" you are left with about 480,000 notes comprised of 500 and 250 dinar notes.
Presumably, 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, and 1 dinar notes will be issued totalling about 520,000 notes, leaving a total after the process is complete of about 1 billion notes in circulation.
However, in order to get the total money supply down to $25 billion, then at $1 per dinar even many of the 500 dinar and 250 dinar notes will have to be removed as well.
Just as we don't circulate a $500 or $250 note, Iraq will remove those as well. Ultimately, the money supply will fall to $25 billion and will be in the 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 dinar note denominations, just as we have in America.
I hope this helps to confirm that the CBI is consistent with itself in talking about a money supply of roughly 40 trillion dinars and a total of roughly 4 billion notes currently.
Aaanth at 8 cents per dinar the total money supply of iraq would be very small in USD. totally "buyable" by anyone with those type of means.
i would throw out a figure but no one knows what the totat anount of iraq's money supply is. best guestimates are 30 to 40 trillion dinar. if you do the math at 8 cents you will see what i mean.
86 cents hits their objectine of "dedollarizing" iraq beacuse that puts the dinar in a position to buy more than the dollar thereby making it more desirable
HandOverFist Aaanth, isn't Iraq "totally buyable" now at 1166? Especially since Abadi says Iraq is open for business and is telling individuals and countries to invest? I think people that have the means may no longer be thinking that there's no future in this exotic currency.
KJWayne I vote for $3.22 as it was before the wars or so called sanctions against Iraq! IMO it will come out at $.86 but will not stay there long. Preacher ,I too like the $1.13 to $1.17 story but i think those numbers are wrong. Anyway. sometime next week we should know alot more . JMO and I'll stick with it. My wife says it will be $3.41 and I asked her how and why. She said "womens intution ". I laughed ( to myself)! :lol:
Rileysetter I find it difficult to believe that Abadi's staff would let him the same mistake twice, in two very important speeches.
I think there has been a long standing assumption that if Iraq "lifts" the zeros from the exchange, they would would lift all three zeros. Perhaps they are telling us that only two zeros are going to be lifted.
Whether or not this makes sense depends on how many dinars you feel are still in the money supply. Please correct me if my math is wrong, but, at an exchange rate of 8 cents per dinar, 40 trillion dinars (from Enorrste's analysis above) would give Iraq a money supply equal to 3.2 trillion USD.
Estimated US M1 is only $2.9 trillion. Can Iraq support a money supply that is larger than that of the US? I would like to know if anyone has added up all the auctions to see how many dinars the CBI has bought back. How many dinars that are left out there is very key IMO.
Aaanth further example: if you took only the 5 richest people in the world their total worth would be exceed $313,000,000. And that's only the top 5!
According to the Forbes list, the five wealthiest people in the world are Bill Gates (net worth $76 billion), Carlos Slim Helu (net worth $72 billion), Amancio Ortega (net worth $64 billion), Warren Buffett (net worth $58.2 billion), and Larry Ellison (net worth $48 billion).
this is obviously NOT counting the Sultan of Brunei and people like that who are rumored to have vast fortunes greatly exceeding even these people not to mention all the sheiks and oil barons, so ir wouldn't be hard to imagine pooling money together to buy an oil and resource rich country like iraq.
in fact, that's probably is what's going to happen only it will be under the guise of "corporate investment"
HandOverFist If I'm not mistaken, I believe that Enorrste is saying they have to cover all the dinars in circulation in the world, including ours, (which would make an RV impossible) but Tlar feels they only have to cover the dinars in circulation in Iraq, making an RV possible.
Anybody, please correct me if I'm wrong. Thank you.
HandOverFist Aaanth, Well, why wait? Why don't they buy this great bargain now, while it's still cheap?
Aaanth HOF... i think they are! thus the 17 (?) major companies/corporations looking to invest in iraq now, before the price goes up. that probably has something to do with the big stall.
i don't KNOW that for sure but it would make sense because it's always about PROFIT!! buying low and selling high is the stock and trade of the richest of all entities, isn't it?
DreamWeaver Aaanth, thank you for responding in a way that clarifies. Understand your point. Something I've always wondered is IF they printed a limited amount of dinar already,why haven't billionaires purchased all outstanding dinar? It sure as heck would be cheaper than $.08.
It pops into my head and I'm sure it's because I don't know how printing money works. Don't be afraid to say it's dumb question--as obviously I'm not afraid to post it in order to understand. ;) LOL. Best ~ DW
DreamWeaver Aaanth, honestly, this stuff doesn't come naturally for me. Some things are a snap but economics, money supply, banking. I'm going to need someone to really explain it ALL post RV as I want to be more knowledgeable. Thanks for all your posts. Going to go thru them r e a l s l o w l y. LOL. Do you do tutoring?
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