Post From Currency Chatter 3-20-16
Tlar & Member Discussion: Raising Currency Value & Article 8
Snippet: Tlar: Iraq still needs loans even after they change the value of their currency and they need huge infusion of capital because fiscally, they are still draining whether they raise the value of their currency or not. [More Tlar Comments at bottom]
Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq will receive substantial financial support soon
17/03/2016 17:52 BAGHDAD / National Iraqi News Agency / nina / The Governor of the Central / agency / on the Keywords bank, said Iraq will receive significant financial support in the coming months, adding to the allocation of four trillion dinars for the provision of staff salaries.
He said during his participation in Sulaymaniyah Forum "The use of the term Bankruptcy is not appropriate, but following the wrong policies could lead to a political failure, "adding , " we have to learn the lesson and do not restore our mistakes again. "
He added:" It can prepare the budget in foreign currency requires adherence to certain global rules , "pointing out that" there financial dominance followed by negative political hegemony over the work of the central bank. "
He said , " the Iraqi government has spent 7 trillion dinars since the beginning of the year , "pointing to" the allocation of four trillion dinars to provide the employees ' salaries.
" He said that" a large proportion of government expenditures come from external sources this imbalance must be addressed , "pointing out that" must be on the central bank to keep the exchange rates at a certain level. " he added Keywords that" there is a problem, but the financial capacity of Iraq is good, we are able to pay salaries , "pointing out that" there are $ 30 billion in the various accounts of the Iraqi ministries. "
He stressed the need to" create a unified account of all ministries in order to facilitate the control of , "and expressed confidence that" Iraq will happen in the coming months on substantial financial support "./anthy7
Schizz: WOW, is keywords letting us know? What i get from this is he's saying they are going to change policies soon, as in fiscal and monetery policy. That's the only things he can change.
This is straight from the main man too, prob wearing dinar goggles but this art should make you smile. support in the coming months, IMF saying they will have them trading internationally by the middle of the year. Things that make you go hmm but with a big smile on your face
Swimmer: Thanks, Schizz, bump
Schízz: YW Swimmer. I love articles straight from the cbi, straight from the horses mouth, literally cos he does kinda look like one... I swear i seen him running in the gold cup yesterday! the dodgy legged one running the wrong way round the track
JD Blue: Keywards finaly acknowledges the problem with the spread, differenceis about 6%, the IMF requires 2%.. The problem is, the CBI does not have a grasp on where the dollars are going, and they have STILL not created a demand for the dinar.
Balvedao- Governor of the Central Bank confirms the existence of a deviation in the parallel market for dollars
18/3/2016 The governor of the Iraqi Central Bank on the Keywords for the presence of certain delinquency rate in the parallel market for dollars, noting that "the bank is trying to reduce the disparities dollar selling in banking markets."
He said on the Keywords in an exclusive interview with NRT satellite channel on the sidelines of the Forum Sulaymaniyah fourth American University, said that "the dollar, which sells for the central bank to banks and transfer and exchange, whether in cash or Aatadat or remittances is 1190 dinars, and Mufrd price that is sold is up to 10 the sense of points up to 1200 dinars. "
He stressed Keywords saying that "there are certain delinquency rate in the parallel market more than the central bank tries to take crisis measures to reduce this difference, although this difference is a few percent ,, noting that" for the central bank cares about this difference. "
And increased exchange of $ 100 US in the Iraqi banking market rate to 127 500 thousand dinars, the US dollar is equivalent to 1275 dinars, an increase of 75 dinars, the price set by the central bank, as well as the economic crisis in Iraq was due to lower oil and war Daash, and the voice of the Council of Representatives on the state budget for 2015 with a deficit law exceeded the 25%
schízz: So, going back to the original art, anyone got any ideas about where this financial support may come from? Very probable he's talking about loans from the SMP as they do that but anything else?
Is he talking about them opening up their natural gas reserves? or you think he's hinting at monetery and fiscal policy change? I kinda think the last but it's hard to know with these guys
I have noticed that for the last week or so auctions have been roughly at 97 mill each time....used to be in the hundreds.
Low central bank sales to $ 92 million at auction today
16/03/2016 15:24 BAGHDAD / National Iraqi News Agency / nina / recorded CBI sales, a decline in the auction for the sale of foreign currency to sell $ 92 million after being sold at yesterday 's $ 97 million.
According to a statement of the bank, " The size of the amount sold today reached 92 million and 104 922 dollars, priced at 1182 dinars exchange rate against the dollar, and with the participation of 25 banks and 19 financial transfer company. "
He pointed out that" the amount of remittances and credits amounted to 76 million and 404 000 and $ 922, in what was the quantity sold in cash 15 million and 700 thousand dollars. " the statement " the sale amounts transferred to accounts in banks abroad be priced at 1190 dinars per dollar, and the cash sales price shall be the price of 1182 dinars per dollar , " ./ ended 7
Schizz: I think it's nuts that the cbi still sells for that way off rate they have on their site so these guys can go and buy it dirt cheap and then sell it for the actual street rate...i would do the same. Need to get some people who know what they are doing in the cbi again.
Bubba Bud: Scizz, I agree, More importantly when is quality Hagis going to be imported to the U.S?
JD BLUE: The primary loan is from the IMF... for rebuilding the country / infrastructure I dont think it has anything to do with the currency. The IMF told them they have to prosecute the corrupt as a condition .. or so I am hearing from OOTW and Butifldream.. 2 top notch Iraqi article analysts.
Schízz: Loans are part and package of the Staff monitoring program. IMF put money through the smp into infrastructure to build the economy. The iraqi's don't get to touch it. not that i'm aware from reading IMF document about SMP.
CASHMONEY: If Iraq is going to continue getting loans doesnt common sense tell you they are in no hurry to do any kind of currency reform? To me all this is saying is their will not be any increase in value in the IQD anytime soon because if there was they wouldnt need a loan! I dont know that just seems like simple common sense....
I cant possibly be the only one who looks at it this way or thinks this way am I ?
Tlar: Cashmo, One has nothing to do with the other. Iraq still needs loans even after they change the value of their currency and they need huge infusion of capital because fiscally, they are still draining whether they raise the value of their currency or not.
The advantages to raising the value are many and have been discussed many times. 1st is investment. With an international Article Viii currency companies are more apt to invest large sums in Iraq because they see an easy path to get their money out.
Secondly, it will stop the auctions because their usefulness will have run its course due to Iraqi companies not needing to convert to USD before they pay. No more remittances needed. No more systemic theft through the auctions.
Third they will be pulling in dollars and letting dinars out as long as the rate is attractive enough, meaning the spread between the program rate and street rate disappears.
Auctions will no longer be a vehicle with which speculators make a short profit and devalue the dinar and the CBI is expecting a resurgence in people coming back to use the banks again.
These and many other reasons by raising the rate and going to Article VIII, will help Iraq immensely but it won't solve their short term cash deficits. Transparency has finally come to Iraq and this means Iraq has to play by the same rules as everyone else..
If the cash is short at 1166 it is short at a dollar. The CBI has been retiring dinars for years. Those dinars are retired. They cannot be reintroduced again until there is growth in the economy.
Remember today it is only through loans, and in Iraq's case through salaries once the auctions stop, that the CBI can put additional dinars into the economy. They can't just hand them out or give them away.
For Iraq to gain in value and outrun its money problems, that is solely based on the growth of their economy. Ebb and flow. That is why they are so intent on opening their economy up.
It has to be based on growth of the money supply which is a direct cause and effect of GNP. If the economy is growing more money will hit the streets in the way of loans, If the economy is retracting loans slow down and new money is not being introduced..
In otherwords for Iraq to put a dinar out, they must receive something of equal value going in like a loan or assets such as gold or foreign currency. Any holes in this boat meaning Iraq spending more than it is taking in, deplete the reserves as we have been witnessing since the end of 2014.
No matter what the value is, if a country is spending more than they are making (economy), they are hemorrhaging "eating their own body fat to survive". Once they raise the value, the CBI will be releasing as many dinars based on the rate as they are taking in US dollars.
The reserves will increase only to the extent that an equal equivalence of USD is coming in to back what's gpoing out. So if the rate is 1 to 1, every dinar that goes out will be backed by the incoming dollar. At 2 to 1 means each dinar that is put out will be backed by 2 US dollars coming in.
This does not effect GNP because it does not affect growth of the economy. It only affords the opportunity for new growth. If it was not treated this way then every country would just print money at will and buy everything they need.
The US is a fiat currency meaning this is exactly what we have been doing for the last eight years. Printing dollars to buy back our own dept. No country can sustain this and at some point someone will call the cards on us and there will be a huge price that all of us will pay.
Iraq is an emerging economy and will not be allowed the same leeway. Through the newly founded transparency I can assure the IMF is on top of Iraq's numbers or they would never let them go Article VIII. That’s why we are seeing so many articles of late that say "compliant". tlar"