HandOverFist at December 30, 2014 at 7:11 PM I'm hoping for the best also, but I disagree with some things that Tlar wrote. I've asked several times to see an article saying they will delete the leading zeros. I've never seen it in print.
Also, Shabibi was very cautious in what he said in Washington in 2011. He did not give away an secrets. Sometimes people hear what they want to hear.
Mally: Handoverfist, You're absolutely right and so is frank. We are all betting on the rumor. Everything shabibi said was standard redenomination stuff in which no one makes any money.
Remember when Shabs was directly asked if the dinar would rise in value and he laughed and said even if I knew that I couldn't tell you. But then some people believe he's literally turning around and telling us it will move 1000 pips.
The dinar would strengthen in a standard redenomination and the 0s do come of the front of the exchange rate, just not on the dinar we hold. Those get the 0s deleted.
Mally Continues: If they do currency reform to start the year I am all the more confident it will not be a standard revenue neutral lop.
If they were about to do that they would be putting out more educational pieces with pictures of all the new lower notes, lots of clear educational pieces would be out by now. They continue to obfuscate and be wishy washy for lack of a better term, that bodes well for us IMO if this change is here.
I said I wouldn't comment on this further but thought I'd help you out with some back up, differences in opinion are ok
Tlar at December 31, 2014 at 8:52 AM Before this thread is closed I would like to clarify a few things. This was a message I sent to a few friends and never intended it to be posted here or have it appear on any site
The reason I did not post this is because Abadi's advisor is waging a war to postpone the project for one more year and he has Abadi's ear. I am unsure whether he will be successful or not as of yet.
He has already gained support from a few on the economic committee and is campaigning to gain more support for the postponement of the project until 2016.
But IMO Iraq needs monetary change now as the glue that will bind all the good work that Abadi has done in the few months he has been prime minister, and it is my belief he will follow through at this time.
So that is why I sent it to a few select people only all of who I know follows this story closely.
HOF (HandOverFist) the article that I mentioned above was published on DA while I was still a member. Kap published it and I was the one who noticed the term used by the finance department "leading zeros" as referencing the delete the zero project.
This was earlier in 2012 that the article appeared before September. It was in the lead up to Shabibi's declaration that he would release the smalls in September indicating that the project would ne implemented by then. The article was put out by a member of the finance committee.
Carrello found it once for me when other people wanted to read it. Kap acknowledged it finding it an interesting statement and the thread went to about 5 pages based on it. This took place before Kap became a floater. I haven't been able to get on DA for a few years now as I was banned as you know.
So if you would like to research it you are most welcome to do so and I hope you do. I hope this helps you find that piece if you want to read it for yourself.
Removing that one reference from my opinion does not change anything though.
Iraq is moving in the direction of globalizing their economy. The question has always been when.
It is my belief that in order to implement taxes which they said they were going to do there must be a balance. A counterweight if you will.
We have seen many articles saying they are going to be taxing many Items including staples. We have seen articles that this government is protectionairy of its poor. To install taxes without a counter balance is punitive and I don't believe the Abadi government would do that.
We have seen article that the ATM's purchased now years ago, are ready to be plugged in on location. Why these articles now? These ATMs will only function on a standardized size which we know that the present currency is not.
There are numerous things they have done in the last few months that lead me to believe we are there and I could bore you to death droning on and on. The circumstantial facts of what's going on tell me that it's time but I have to constantly remind myself, this is Iraq.
But then I think this is not the corrupt Iraq we have watched for the last eight years. These guys are the new Iraq and appear to be truly trying to fix this country.
The Abadi government has swayed the Kurds over and if he can re-instate Hashemi he will have won over the Sunni's. He has changed perceptions in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and yes, even in Iran.
So I am hopeful with everything starting a new in 2015 that Abadi will see the currency as we do. A new beginning.
IMO there is a lot counting on it not the least which is the new GCC which is supposed to start this month. We all know Iraq will be the power house of the middle east. IMO Abadi will ignore Saleh's push to postpone and move ahead hand in hand with the CBI to monetary change.
It is a unfolding story and that is why I referenced "IMO" throughout. NOT INTEL. (I am in a hurry this morning and have to meet my daughter so sorry for mis-spells and grammar. No time to proof read) Tlar
Mally: Thanks, Tlar, I'm hoping you're right. I've seen very little about the Federation Laws, HCL, budget approved or the National Reconciliation Meeting in the news, I'm truly hoping that Iraq can have an international currency by the 11th of January.
Phillyman: Fascinating update Tlar and thank you for sharing it. I find it interesting that there is no mention of the security issue which I assume means you do not believe it has an impact on the monetary policy. Whatever the case I guess we will know soon if Abadi has been influenced to take this project out to 2016.
Brule: You know that Abadi will counsel Dr. Shabibi, and has. Saleh was always a thorn in Shabibi's side, and always stated the opposite of what Shabibi said. Abadi was on the Finance Committee and I would think was very aware of the differences between the two men on economics. But I think we all know who is the Big Dog, and who is imbedded at the IMF. Thanks, Tlar. U da Best!
DreamWeaver: Appreciate Tlar and his posts. Always good to have Tlar posting his take on things. Great perspective. Question for Tlar and/or the board:
Why do you think Abadi positioned Saleh as his economic advisor? He didn't have to do that after Saleh was exonerated. What could be the strategy?
My thoughts--though possibly erroneous--were that Saleh, through being exonerated, was entitled to hold his former position. Could this have been a way to keep Saleh close to Abadi's side through this process, paying little attention to what he is advising, so that when Shabibi returns to CBI he won't have to deal with Saleh?
Though it appears that Saleh is doing some damage to the delete the zeros project is he really doing anything other than yapping?
At the CBI, alongside Shabibi once more, could he create waves of resistance that Shabibi and Abadi are trying to prevent?
Just my thoughts. Admittedly, it is coming through an eye on RV, with Shabibi back at CBI, but if I were Abadi, in favor of RV, and I knew Saleh was a foot dragger, I'd put him in a position that would make him feel powerful but without any real ability to interfer.
So, IMO, we needn't be that concerned with Saleh statements calling for delay. Could be all wet, but I think where Abadi positioned Saleh is very telling. What does it say? There is a plan working that doesn't include Saleh--between Abadi and Shabibi. JMO. Thoughts? Appreciated ~ DW
Mike: The guru's are on fire this week! My prediction? More of the same. Iraq still needs security and stability along with numerous laws that will support the change in value of the dinar.
While I don't believe they need HCL or an approved budget for a rate change, I also don't believe they're done composing the legislation yet. There's still a lot of work to accomplish before they can do anything with the dinar, that's just my opinion though, it's not based on contacts or sources.
Dr. Gann: thanks Tlar ,,, I dont see that Abadis guy can sway very much espcially with cash flow problems,, and All the promises he has made the kurds. Sure they could strech it out and go another year and for every promise made in the articles 5 are broken the next week or month..
Which has led us to a long journey till now .. thats just a long time to see return on your money and their are a lot of people who need this yesterday.. I sure hope Abadi stays on the path :)
BigJohn: Saleh has made the same comments for more than 2 years that the delete the zeros project should be delayed. No surprise that he would state the same now. What is his motive? Security? Stability? Friends that have/are counterfeiting? Who knows...
Interesting that Maliki would have Saleh arrested. Did he have the goods on M? Probably. But, nothing likely to do with his stance on Monetary Policy.
Could the CBI hold on for awhile and wait to change the currency? Yes they could.
Is that what they will do? No one. No one knows but we all shall find out soon enough.
In the meantime...proceed with your life. Do what you need/have to do. Do not put anything on hold. Out of a job? Keep posting your resume. Life must and will go on.
When it happens. Then everything can and will change.
Mally: Saleh has been all over the place with his statements for years. Here is an article from 2010 where he is saying they would do it by the end of the year. Still waiting.
BAGHDAD -- The Iraqi Central Bank is planning to redenominate the national currency in an effort to ease transactions and allow people to carry less paper money, RFE/RL's Radio Free Iraq (RFI) reports.
Mudhhir Muhammad Salih, a member of a Central Bank advisory panel, told RFI that a plan has been made to remove three zeros from the currency and phase out the current banknotes late this year.
Salih said by the end of 2010 the new banknotes will be fully introduced while the old banknotes will be gradually removed from circulation. He did not specify when the new notes would be issued.
Both will be legal tender in Iraq until the old notes are completely withdrawn.
Iraqi officials have had a long-running plan to redenominate the Iraqi dinar. In 2006, the Finance Ministry recommended to the Central Bank that it carry out such a plan.
Salih pointed out that banks are having a hard time accepting cash savings and deposits, but by dropping the zeros it will make it easier for both the banks to deal with their customers and for the general public to carry money. He said some 80 percent of Iraq's money supply is cash in circulation.
Salih added that in 1990 the value of banknotes in circulation was about 25 billion Iraqi dinars but is currently some 25 trillion dinars.
Economic analyst Hilal al-Tahhan told RFI that the bank's move is overdue. He said he expects the currency change to go smoothly because of the decision to allow both the old and new banknotes to coexist, leading to less turbulence in the economy.
The current exchange rate is 1,167 Iraqi dinars to the U.S. dollar.
Frank: I certainly hope that Saleh is not to be believed, but I would feel more comfortable if he simply stated that the plan is to remove the leading zeros from the exchange rate as opposed to from the currency.
It would also be more comfortable to read that the finance Ministry statement conflicts with Saleh's statement , but in their recommending a plan to re denominate the IQD, it agrees with the process that Saleh is talking about, the same process that occured in more than 50 other countries.
I'm putting my Dinar Goggles back on and pouring a drink, hoping for the best and that the best happens by Jan. 11th.
G-Lin: Thanks everybody for the comments. Keep um coming. Mally I remember all those arts. from Saleh. That was when I first got invested. I always said Saleh sure did "spill his guts." :lol:
And of course nothing happened as we all know. Maybe we just need to flip everything he says and if he is saying 2016, maybe it will be 2015 . :P I'm excited about the taxes beginning and the bonds. Like Carrello told me "let's hope they are international." ;)
HandOverFist: Thank you, Tlar, for letting me know to go to Kap's site to research the "delete the leading zeros" article from 2012. I will do that now.
Iamhere: Sager or anyone here...Who is on the CBI Board of Directors? Does anyone know? Just like our Fed. Reserve board. Yellen is not calling the shots. She is the face of the Fed while being a board member. Interesting perspective.
hi-five: iamhere - - There are so many layers of protection around those who are truly calling the shots, I don't think we will ever know who they are. I just read Mountain Goat's latest post.
I don't always read her. I don't know if she is a plant/shill or on the up and up. When I do read her, she sometimes makes no sense to me. But, today, she had me listening.
I would not be surprised if the US is requiring amnesty and Erbil before they agree to let the RV go.
The US has been duped so many times by Iraq, it makes sense to me that these laws would need to be implemented. Who knows? McCain was just over there.
He usually shows up right about the time we think something is about to happen. For now, I'm waiting to see what happens when parliament returns and the ISX opens back up. I'm hoping the 7th - 11th will produce what we are looking for!!
sweed61: You can find the names of those on the CBI Board of Directors here:
Fred: Fed board members can be found here.. http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/boardmembership.htm
Jdinar: I agree hi-five.... it's certainly worth a complete read especially about the HCL, Article 140 and the way Iraq continues to push things down the road to the last minute. Hard to say, but it does seem plausible.
Mike: So, the budget's approved and now we're waiting on HCL, Amnesty Article 140 and the Erbil agreement before the US allows Iraq to release the budget and RV the dinar?
Isn't it easier to just read the articles and figure out that the budget isn't done yet instead of having to go through all of that post?
Mountain goat makes perfect sense in a information vacuum, but when multiple media sources are telling us the opposite, it just doesn't add up. I'd make fun of them but there are many who believe what they say and I don't want to rile anyone up.
Skylimit: The CBI must work with the GOI and is independent to a point. Iraq must also get the OK to join with the world financial system. How's it working out for Russia right now being excluded from the club by the US? Is it legal? Hell no! So read all the articles you want, Iraq will move forward when the US coalition gives the go.
Brule: I agree with hi-five. Mountain Goat's recent comments made sense to me.
12/30/2014 Of the House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on 07.01.2015, meeting to discuss the draft budget law for 2015.
The MP is capable Mulla Mohammed through a special permit for PUKmedia: The Finance Committee of the House of Representatives will hold a meeting on 01.03.2015 to discuss the observations on the budget bill, saying that the House of Representatives will be the second reading of the budget bill in its meeting to be held on 7/1 / 2015.
And on observations of the Kurds in the budget bill, the Attorney able Mullah Mohammad, a member of the Finance Committee said that his Kurdish deputies working in earnest to bring to the implementation of Article 140 in the budget, financial allocations, stressing that the Kurds do not have great reviews on the budget only allocations of Article 140.
He said the Attorney able Mulla Mohammed: The House of Representatives will be the second reading of the budget at its next meeting, and if there were no notes will be the ratification of the law, paragraph after another.
G-Lin: And we have this from yesterday. This looks like some finality to me. Sorry if this got posted. I didn't see it. Erbil-Baghdad Agreement approved in 2015 budget Dec 30 2014
The Head of Kurdistan Regional Government Council of Minister, Amanj Raheem, said that Erbil?Baghdad Agreement has gone through legal procedure since it has been approved by Iraqi Council of Ministers.
Later this week, the Iraqi Parliament approved the Kurdistan Region's 17 percent share of the 2015 general budget in a session. The Parliament read the draft budget bill for fiscal year 2015 in the presence of 208 representatives.
Raheem said approving the bill by Council of Minister is very important because if delayed, the Government have to send a share of the budget each month starting in January 1, 2015.
On the other hand, Iraq?s Prime Minister Haidar Abadi defended his recent agreement with Kurdistan as his cabinet approved the draft budget worth 123 trillion dinars (about $103 billion) on Tuesday.
The budget is seen as a direct outcome of the stabilizing relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the oil pact Baghdad and Erbil have signed.
The agreement on budget and oil exports from Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk is a victory for Kurds and Arabs in Iraq and we are ready to push aside our differences,? Abadi said in an interview with the Mada daily Tuesday.
According to the agreement between the KRG and Iraqi Government, Erbil will export 550,000 barrels of oil per day in return for the Kurdistan Region?s 17 percent share of the Iraqi budget, or roughly $1 billion every month