Post From Currency Chatter By Tlar
Tlar You guys are all friends. Today at 6:01 PM
Comment - I have been asked by a few if am I willing to go public and admit it if I have been wrong in calling both this election and the RV date. My answer is simply yes.
I read every day and I do my best to interpret what I read. As most of you know by now, I have been consumed since 2009 with this investment.
I love politics and have always tried to look forward based on things, people, events and positions. It is my opinion since the first straw poll that Maliki is finished.
There are some out there that will argue this outcome but I think the argument has been resolved with the election results even if they have not been released yet. The opposition has 200-210 MP'S out of a possible 328.
They have held together through a attack by Iran to break them, through Maliki's bribes making it a virtually an impossibility for Maliki's third term, and through all the vote stealing and rigging. IMO Maliki is not going to be around more than another week or two unless he can break the will of the coalition.
The coalition has yet to have made its move. It has patiently sat by while the SOL has nominated Maliki and while Maliki has tried to bribe components of the coalition, but the coalition has held firm as I stated they would since the straw poll.
Most everything you read about Maliki still has chances are false hopes mainly put out by the American press and the government newspapers in Iraq and in particular uninformed gurus.
Independent newspapers in Iraq are predicting his demise. If Maliki can't break the back of the coalition, he is finished and IMO he can't break the back of the coalition.
If the SOL who made a bad error in judgment by nominating Maliki for reasons we will never understand fully don't come to their senses, they will end up in the crosshairs of the coalition.
It is for this reason I believe they will abandon their support for Maliki in the next week, choosing not to bring him as their nominee to the new legislature. If they do, they realize they will be facing 210 MP'S who will vote no to his run and they will end up with little to nothing in the way as to getting important government Ministries and positions.
Parliament will move on to the next Shia nominee. So it is my belief that the SOL will dump Maliki and it to will support the coalition seeking to agree to a nominee that will be acceptable to all meaning they will work within the short list that Hakim will provide that has already been accepted by the Sunni's, Kurds and Turkman.
Those that have been stating "this government could take longer to form than it did in 2010", are dead wrong. If it comes to pass as I have outlined above, then it should not take but a couple of weeks satisfying the CBI's desire to see a government that is settled.
Maliki recently offered the leaders of blocks one million dollars and a new car to get them and their membership to support his run for PM. He had one taker. His numbers went from 93 to a possible 115.
Still it is 40 MP'S short and he is about out of time. He has to have one half plus one meaning 165 MP'S or he can't win. Yesterday he announced that a movement consisting of one member MP joined his side and would support him.
He announced it like it was a real coo. Today that person denied the story and said he did not support Maliki's third term leaving Maliki looking quite the fool.
Hakim has a short list that he passed in front of both the Sunnhi's, Kurds and Turkman along with coalition members of the Shia. This lists contains of names that if nominated would be accepted by these all of the above. This list will soon surface and the opposition nominee for PM will soon be known to all.
There was a meeting held two days ago by the coalition. 200 MP'S showed to finite this selection. We won't know the results until the last minute IMO. It most likely will not be released until just before the new parliament convenes mid-june,
This is partly because Jaafari, Allawi and Shahristani all believe they should be the next PM. Hakim is sharp. He will keep these guys on the hook until their commitment is locked in meaning he does not want anybody to know who the nominee will be until it is too late for these three to pull out.
Then they will realize they are not on the list. So hang in everyone. We will see nothing but crap put out by the Maliki supporters IMO for the next two weeks.
Sometimes it will look disorganized and many will not understand what's happening, and some will continue to think Maliki will be the next PM with a third mandate. This has to be played out this way in order to come out right. Don't lose site of the prize.