Shelby I have two questions for this thoughtful forum...
1. With a series of articles over the past several weeks indicating increasing animosity for Maliki as the next PM, what is the National Alliance dragging its feet on announcing who they are nominating instead of Maliki? Is there something to be gained by dragging to process out?
2. Regarding Maliki's immunity...does the fact that he has won a seat as a minister of parliament not also include immunity as long as he serves in that seat? Or is immunity only offered toe the PM position?
Lotus: Will Iraqi elections be decided in Iraq?
Author: Mustafa al-KadhimiPosted May 28, 2014
Iraqis have long repeatedly said that political decisions are taken outside the country, and that regional and international agreements specify the trajectory of new governments. As soon as the results of last month’s elections were announced, all attention was channeled to outside powers to know the real result.
Political events are not isolated but instead are highly interrelated. One cannot disregard the influence of Iran on major Shiite powers, that of Turkey on Iraqi Kurdistan and some Sunni factions and that of Saudi Arabia on some Sunni powers. Certainly, one also cannot talk about an Iraqi policy away from the role and influence of Washington.
The scenarios of the 2006 and 2010 elections are expected to repeat again this year. Iraqi political forces will likely push the crisis deeper and cling to their positions, while refusing to make concessions.
Without hesitation, they will push the political process to the brink, thus creating a perfect environment for foreign interference, as these powers will not hesitate to call for this intervention.
Iraqi political culture still gives foreign powers roles that these powers did not even think about playing. Political conflicts include foreign influences as part of a game, according to which Iraqi parties empower themselves and weaken their rivals.
For example, some political and media circles talked about Washington not supporting Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s quest for a third mandate or of a “political majority” forming the government.
Other circles said that Iran supports a third term, while others believed that Iran and Washington support Maliki. Another group, however, said that neither country supported Maliki.
These leaks are aimed at entrenching the culture that promotes the making of decisions by foreign countries. It could also be an attempt by Iraqi political powers to get rid of their responsibilities and throw the burden of liability on foreign countries.
One cannot imagine a future for a country where political elites care about the opinion of foreign countries at the expense of their own people, and before evaluating if the Iraqi decision can possibly be applied within Iraq.
The question is the following: Why do Iraqi political forces wait for a foreign intervention to start making concessions? Why don’t they analyze the political map first, and then act upon it?
This question can only be answered if we take into consideration the vision of the powers toward the country's rule and the role of political parties, and the concept of peaceful rotation of power.
Amid the absence of consensual principles in terms of the state, its form, the distribution of wealth and the competence of each institution, it is normal to assume that government formation is in fact a restructuring of the state. This process requires a re-creation of conflicts about the government and the future.
Tlar: Shelby,The NA is not dragging their feet.Remember nothing happens until the 15th. The coalition is waiting for the election results which prove they are the winners.
Within 24-48 hours you will understand this and the wait was very important as Hakim and the coalition had to prove they could hold together in the face of threats, bribes and a media campaign of lies by the SOL and Maliki.
It held even when pressured initially by Iran. Everybody now knows THE COALITION IS REAL AND CANNOT BE BROKEN.
The fruit of what you see as a delay was not a delay but a necessary step in the process to eliminate Maliki and to force the SOL to come to their senses and make a deal. Had the SOL not nominated Maliki but rather been willing to work out a deal with the coalition in the beginning,
It is my opinion that they would have gotten a much better deal and might have ended up as part of this government. They committed political suicide when they forced Maliki on their membership.
I said right after the elections that the SOL would end up being marginalized as a party if they chose Maliki. Back then the better move would to have pow wowed immediately with the coalition or they would be committing political suicide.
They, for their own reasons, decided to try to muscle themselves and the NA by breaking the coalition.
It did not work as we know. They were betting the farm they could break the coalition.
Now the best deal they got was a last ditch effort to save their hides which has blocked them from being any part of the next government. Yes they are MP's in parliament, but they will hold no positions of power. .
Maliki tried on numerous occasions to strike a deal for immunity, but he is the big fish that must ultimately face the music and the coalition would not deal with him. They were head hunting him from the start and the longer this took, the more blood they smelled.
The coalition has the numbers and no matter what, they control the outcome of this election and will get the PM they want and make Iraq the government they want.