Post From Peoples Dinar By BlueyesinLevis
Comment - The Iraqi elections are over and they had a 60% turnout in country and a 91% turnout in abstentia. Some violence existed and there were suicide bombings of terror groups trying to stop them, but by in large the elections were a great success.
Just a day before the elections, Iran slammed Maliki for critisizing members of the religious authority in Iraq. There was an article last week that was put out by the government news station whereby the SOL stated they would not run Maliki for PM if they were to win.
For the last month they have been stating that they had not decided, but it is my belief that this was a ploy in order to gain votes because the head of the party had stated a week earlier that they were going to run Maliki.
Either way Iraq is approaching a new era as there will be a new government that takes office on June 15th. The SOL will not be the largest block and so whether they would have put Maliki's name in for PM is irrelevant.
The international observers were in Iraq throughout the day witnessing these elections and plan to stay on to watch the counting to insure transparency.
It could take up to 30 days before announcements are made because of legal challenges and recounts meaning we may not know until the end of May who won these elections.
Again the polls showed the Citizen Party should have the most MP'S and unlike the election in 2010 where after the results came in Maliki quickly ran around getting blocks to form a super coalition, the NA, there is a new law on the books that prohibits this stating the block with the most MP's gets to nominate the next PM.
There are 328 MP's that will finally be seated and again if the polls are correct and I believe they are, 43 to as much as 47% of them ought to be the citizen party. But again it could be as long as 30 days before we see the results.
The ballot boxes from each province is being escorted under heavy guard to the counting area. International advisors are following and watching those boxes like a hawk.
When they get to the counting area again they will be watched closely as they are opened and counted. It is my thoughts that at this point, where the heavy Shia votes are being counted from Basra and Bagdad that Maliki will make an escape to avoid prosecution which is sure to quickly follow the convening of the new parliament.
Once the party that one is seated they will immediately put up their nomination for PM. Once that is done and the PM designate then he has two weeks to select who he wants in the COM. Then the PM and his picks are voted on by all 328 members of parliament.
If he has selected nominees that are unacceptable to parliament then the new PM designee is removed and the whole thing starts over. If they pass, then the new government is seated.
Hakim did his homework in anticipation of winning. He has had dozens of meetings over the last 3 weeks with every block. Everybody but the Sol and the Dawa, Maliki's block.
He even had a meeting that he called with everybody of just the NA. His intent is to be ready to hit the track running. He has secured agreemebnts with each party, divying up the post so thew blocks will already know what they are to get. He has also already secured agreement on the PM position.
So when the new parliament reconveines June 15th, unlike 2010, this parliament will already be on board. Hats off to Hakim if as he should he wins the most MP'S in his block.
The CBI is still not divulging anything concerning monetary change when they report to the press.
The only thing they have said is what they have done or going to do shortly. We only heard about the new currency, the 250, 500, 1000 and a few of the big 3 zero notes, one day before they started to circulate.
That means the decision and designs for these notes was made earlier in the year without them telling anyone. Those contracts to print and deliver these superior notes had to have been made in January or Febuary.
The CBI is acting independent of the government without interference since the first of this year. That is why I keep saying there will be no more heads up. The CBI has not looked intimited by anything the government has said or done which is exactly what we have been hoping to see for 8 years.
Even when Maliki tried again to put a yes man in and remove Turki, Turki remain quite for the most part. But he is still their and he is stroner than ever making decisions and doing "his" job which is monetary policy and assisting the economy supplying the tools necessary for success.
Since the days of Shabibi the CBI has stated that they don't want to split an accounting period when the monetary change is made.
July 1st is the begining of the next quarter so that logically would be the next window if that were the only consideration. But swapping the larger notes before they delete the zeros, before giving them the 250, 500 and 1000 real value while they are counterfeitable, is now a consideration that must also be considered.
It is my belief that ideally they will want to see a significant amount of these older notes removed before they delete the zeros.
What may throw a wrench in my thinking is that if in fact the budget is written at 1.16 dinars to a dollar (86 cents) as we were told in three different articles by the guys who wrote it, then the currency must be at the same level before they dispurse any funds.
So it is possible that when the budget is passed and that's the first thing the new government will do, they will make it retroactive either back to the first of the year or no later than April first.