Thank You Tlar for sharing your perspective with DinarLand
Tlar "Scooter: there's approximately 4 trillion in hard currency" "Scooter: Saleh just reported that one"
I would like to make a couple of comments here. If you believe Scooter is a good researcher and reliable witness then he is verifying that there was 4 trillion dinars in circulation in early 2012 as told to us by Saleh, that I have been referencing also since early 2012.
Saleh did not say circulating in Bahgdad as Scooter referenced above. Saleh made a blanket one time only reference to circulating dinar, and it has always been my belief that either he or Shabibi realized that this was a mistake to say anything at all so it has never been eluded to again.
This number gives us and smart Iraqi's a beginning number with which to approximately tract how much currency is left at anytime. During this period there was an ebb and flow to the dinar.
Dinars were being taken in off the street and at the same time as salaries were being paid they were being put on the street.
I made the argument in 2012 that if we tracked the auctions and how many dollars were sold daily (not remittances, just currency sales to banks) and we were to subtract the dinars being put out by the ministries to pay bills, salaries etc, we would have an approximate number reflecting the amount of dinars being retired weekly leaving us with the approximate number of dinars circulating.
I started to do this toward the end of 2012 myself along with help from Carrello. We first had to go back and recapture the number to the first of 2012 (when Saleh gave us the starting point).
Carrello (Brule) fed me the auction numbers for a while (cash only sales to Iraqi banks) and we set out to systemize a way to track this number. I got such a ration of crap from XXX after I mentioned it on DA because by this time the float theory was born and this kind of info had no place in that theory.
A month or so later he banned me from the site but for the month leading up to my being banned, I was silenced. I stopped the project.
Why track this number? It is important for a couple of reasons.
First in December of 2011 the CBI posted that they had let only a little more than 30 trillion dinar out of the CBI up to that point. That number encompassed all the dinar ever let out of the CBI since 2003.
If we believe Saleh and figure that 4 trillion physical dinars were in Iraq circulating by the first part of 2012, that left approximately 26 trillion that were let out of the CBI unaccounted for.
In other words they were spread out across the globe. Remember, in January 2010 Maliki had signed favored trade agreements with both Syria and Iran. Both countries immediately recognized the dinar and accepted it in trade.
Citizens on both side of both borders were trading briskly with support from the central banks in all three countries, willing to swap the currencies back and forth.
The point was that Iran and Syria were accumulating trillions of dinar and at some point for this project to be successfully implemented without empowering rouge states, those dinars would have to be repatriated and taken out of the hands of these two states with reputations of sponsoring terrorism.
We saw heavy UN sanctions put on both countries and at the same time the CBI stated to their citizenry they would no longer deal in or accept either countries currency.
Thus began the title wave of buying dinars back from Syria and Iran as both countries in bad need of hard currency due to sanctions, started dumping dinars in Iraq and smuggling USD out.
The CBI was at one point selling over a billion USD every three days repatriating over a trillion dinar every three days. This was both dollarizing Iraq and cleaning out Syria and Iran at the same time, or at the very least getting them down to an acceptable level before the project to delete the zeros could be implemented.
Today we know Iraq has been pretty much dollarized. Most articles have indicated that most transactions are done in USD. By now both Syria and Iran dinar holdings have been significantly reduced at least to an acceptable level.
We hear stories that dinar dealers in the US are having trouble replenishing their stocks of dinar.
We also know that recent articles have said that there is 37 trillion dinar out. I would suggest once again this is an aggregate number meaning it represents all dinar ever let out of the CBI, both circulating and non-circulating dinar.
I would like to hazard a guess as to how much physical dinars there are circulating today as did Scooter in 2012. My best guess is a trillion or less.
I have come to this conclusion by figuring that if in the middle of 2013 they re-printed 5 trillion dinar to replace approximately 3 trillion dinars they felt were circulating in Iraq by the middle of 2013, knowing that in the first quarter of 2012 Saleh said there were 4 trillion circulating at that time,
then that is approximately a 1 trillion reduction of circulating dinars in Iraq during a period they were buying back trillion and trillions of dinar from Syria and Iran.
By 2014 we saw the auctions drop to a reasonable level, meaning the bulk of the buyback from these two countries had taken place, and the real Iraqi ebb and flow in Iraq was still going on.
Dollarization of Iraq was sped up with less monies being smuggled out.
It is my contention that another 2 trillion dinars were absorbed through the auctions, and the CBI requirement that all banks participating in the auctions, turn over all their stocks of dinars to the CBI. Walla - - 1 trillion or less best guestimate. tlar
Rockstar Thanks for that great analysis Tlar. I had a guess of 1.2-1.4 Trillion left in circulation inside Iraq but I like your number better!
Tlar Rockstar, my guess is most likely faulty and yours could certainly be more accurate than mine. Either way I can't see them having as much as 2 trillion left circulating.
Many still don't understand that the dinar they hold is not circulating and neither is any dinar held in any bank outside of Iraq.
I find it interesting that dealers around the world had no trouble getting dinar after Shabibi had put into regulations that nobody sell dinar to these guys and instituted rules against taking large sums of dinar out of the country.
It just goes to show you that under the Maliki government everyone was on the take and the borders leaked like sieves.
It seems the only cash ever stopped at the border was the $250 million Maliki's aid was trying to smuggle out, which told me that the border guard did not get his normal bribe and arrested the guy.
Abadi has done a great job in turning the country in the right direction. It is my belief we will see currency change shortly or the country will financially implode. tlar