Tlar Updated Email To Family & Friends 7-27-14 Brought From Currency Chatter
Tlar Comment - as I said yesterday the definition of what constitutes the largest block was at issue. It was important to make sure to the coalition that they define that as something other than the SOL.
Jubouri yesterday defined the largest block as the National Alliance effectively removing the power the SOL was trying to obtain through the courts by having them rule the SOL was the biggest block.
The National Alliance (Shia Party) consists primarily of two opposing groups, the coalition 83 MP'S and the SOL 95 MP'S. (State of Law)
The coalition wants Chalabi or Mahdi which are both acceptable to all Iraqi's and are non sectarian. The SOL leadership wants Maliki and has shown no interest in negotiating.
The NA ultimately will vote by secret ballot and if that vote were held today it appears by the numbers alone the SOL would win this vote and Maliki would be the nominee from the NA.
The problem for the SOL leadership is that they cannot count on their rank and file membership.
There is much dissension in their ranks with many outright saying they do not want Maliki whereas the coalition is in lock step and can count on all their members to vote for their nominee in locked step.
Yesterday three of the major components that make up the SOL announced that they were going to honor al-Sistani's call for no more Maliki and a change in government to an all inclusive government (see article below).
This puts them at odds with the leadership of the SOL and splinters their vote even more. It changes the dynamics of the vote leaning it in favor of the coalition.
The coalition need only get 15 MP's away from the SOL to vote with them, and this is over. If it were onlt 15 (I believe it will be much higher) the vote would end at coalition 98, SOL 80 and the coalition could then choose the nominee they want and take him to the floor in parliament.
This would effectively insure that the government is set with a non- Maliki government that is both acceptable to all and non sectarian.
It appears the coalition might have already acquired those defectors and are ready to go for a vote. (read article below).
If this is accurate and the coalition announces the candidate tomorrow that means they are assured of their numbers and ready to go. I think they will reconvene parliament before August 5th but that is for sure the outside date.
Things are moving very fast and things are not going Maliki's way. He is still fighting but becoming more irrelevant every day.
Side prediction - Maliki and the leadership of the SOL will be on an airplane heading to parts unknown within an hour of the announcement from the NA of their new nominee. tlar
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Reform Movement: National Alliance will present its candidate for prime minister before the next session of Parliament
Author: ab Editor: br reporter: ms 27/07/2014 12:35
Tomorrow's Press / Baghdad: MP for the National Reform Movement, crescent Sahlani, Sunday, that the National Alliance will present its candidate for prime minister before the date of the parliamentary session. said Sahlani for "tomorrow's Press," said that "negotiations on the nomination of the prime minister continues within the National Alliance to ask personal compatibility are admissibility by all the partners. "
He stressed that "the coalition will present its candidate for the job before the date of the parliamentary session scheduled to be held in the fifth month of August next."
and stressed "the need to build a government in harmony in the coming period to counter the threat of terrorism and other security challenges facing the country since the period."
and decided to Iraqi Council of Representatives After the vote, the President of the Republic, on 24 of this month, to raise its fifth of next month.
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July 27, 2014 at 7:31 AM
Tlar: Again his signature means about as much as his word does, nothing. He was alphonsed into signing this by the coalition because he did not understand the full ramification of what he was signing and how it could be used against him to finish him off.
So now he says it means nothing just as he did with the Erbil agreement. He reminds me of a person trying to herd a bunch of cats. What a man. What a statesman. A true Shiite head. Or is that head Shiite? I never can get that right.. tlar
Maliki Jabouri: If I challenge al-Jaafari announced the National Alliance, the largest bloc in Parliament
July 26, 2014 BAGHDAD - ((eighth day))
A source close to the Parliament Speaker Salim al-Maliki told him if he defies Jaafari announced the National Alliance, the largest bloc in parliament.
-The source told ((eighth day)) that al-Maliki met with al-Jubouri morning at the parliament building and told him that he defies Jaafari if announced that the National Alliance is the largest bloc in parliament, adding that a coalition of state law is the biggest bloc in parliament and the President of the Republic Fuad Masum, the assigned to form the next government.
-The source added that al-Maliki also stressed that the paper bearing his signature and prove that the National Alliance is the largest bloc is worthless paper.
The State of Law coalition has announced that that the Federal Court acknowledged that a coalition of state law is the biggest bloc in parliament, which was denied by the spokesman of the court Abdul Sattar Bayraktar, stressing that the Federal Court did not issue such a statement.
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Three important blocks to leave Al-Maliki's coalition if he insisted that the largest blo
-An informed source said that three blocks a larger weight in the State of law Coalition informed the national reference of Najaf as they emerge from the State of law Coalition to immediately be declared National Alliance Nuri al-Maliki's State of law is the largest bloc.
-The source said Hadi al-Ameri, head of the Badr organization, Hussain Al-Shahristani, Chairman of the independent Al-khudhair block President Dawa Iraq organization resolved to stop the adventures of Nouri al-Maliki that no longer threaten national consensus but unanimously in most serious threatening moments need compatibility.
-They said these leaders respect the declaration statement, the Shiite National Alliance Dr. Jaafari's speech before about a month from now in the presence of Mr. Ammar al-Hakim Al-khudhair and Nouri al-Maliki himself along with Hadi Ameri as the national coalition is the largest bloc in the Parliament, which will form the next Governmen
-- largest bloc in Parliament
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Here is a write up I did to help some to better understand the politics of this:
The NA (National Alliance) is the block that will get to bring forth a nominee for Parliament because it has been deemed the biggest block by Jubouri.
The NA has 178 members consisting of 83 coalition members and 95 SOL (State of Law) members. This is the division on paper.
The coalition consists of a few blocks that make it up including the liberals and the citizens. But the coalition will block vote when the time comes as one group meaning each member will vote for the same nominee.
The SOL has a few blocks in it totaling a combined 95 MP'S. Just looking at these numbers if the SOL were to get every member to vote th same nominee, Maliki would be that nominee because they have 95 MP'S while the coalition only has 83 MP's.
Each person in the NA will cast one vote meaning when the vote is held 178 people will independently cast a vote.
The problem for the SOL is they can't count on their rank and file to support a Maliki nomination to be nominee where as the coalition's 83 are assured to vote for their guy, either Chalabi or Mahdi.
If the coalition can convince 15 members of the SOL to vote for Mahdi or Chalabi then the vote would be 98 MP'S for the coalition Mahdi or Chalabi, and 80 SOL votes for Maliki.