_Fresh: Let's start out with the latest article everyone is talking about: Baghdad, February 18 (Rn) – The parliamentary economic committee, Saturday, in agreement with the Iraqi Central Bank to begin the process of removing zeros from the local currency in September next.
Fresh: A quick note on this - it's old - we've seen this last year - it recycled. But something to reflect back on that still rings true is this quoted at the end of the article: "He added that “the agreement granting process to ensure the currency switch for a full year that the two currencies are traded the old and new in the market during this stage.”
Fresh: That part is relevant and speaks to me on the level of our higher denominations or "three zero notes" being gradually removed from circulation when the new currency is introduced. This also is an indication of the CBI of "co-existence" between the two currencies which is a fundamental support for why they are NOT going to LOP.
Fresh: AZGhostHunter - I bring up that last point because I see a lot of questions from our members asking about "LOP" or could they just make our currency "worthless, can't be exchanged if they come out with new currency, etc" The consistent position from the CBI or Central Bank of Iraq demonstrates their position on allowing the higher denoms to be in circulation for an extended period of time while they introduce the new currency - this is GREAT - but nothing new.
Fresh: AZGhostHunter - go ahead and catch us up on what the CBI is "Really" doing if you don't mind...
Read More Link on Right
AZGhostHunter: OK here we go.. “Haitham al-Jubouri: Deletion of zeros from currency needs to be two and three stages; 6 month intervals” … in January, we were told that Phase 1 is completed. We are currently in Phase 2, which will potentially run until June. Phase 2 is introducing the new currency, and Phase 3 is getting the old currency off the streets. Now we have all seen the articles posted about September being the start of the removing the zeroes (getting the higher denoms off the streets) and they will allow the old notes (which we have) to exist along side of the new currency for a year. So… does this September article mean the start, or end of phase 2?(neither)
AZGhostHunter: Now check out this article that was released on 2/17/12: “Central Bank of Iraq, Tuesday, that he is about to finish the project raise three zeros from the currency, noting that the project is considered strategic, and submitted to the Council of Ministers and House of Representatives completed the event.
The central bank adviser said the appearance of Mohammed Saleh during the permit media that the project raise three zeros from the dinar is a strategic project and the Central Bank is in the process of finalizing the project, the idea of theory into practice, and almost completed, and submitted to the Council of Ministers and House of Representatives. Saleh continued that this project will reduce the transaction costs and reduces carry cash, he said, adding that Iraq is on the verge of producing 6 to 12 million barrels of oil and this will impact on the development and raises the value of Iraqi dinar.
Fresh: AZGhostHunter - WOW - now Saleh is talking about 6 to 12 million barrels of production again! I like this he's letting the world know his currency will be strong! Continue AZGhostHunter
AZGhostHunter: The adviser to the CBI that the bank has achieved three things during the last stage, as the first to build reserves from zero to $ 50 billion, within the past five years to lower the prices of inflation basis from 34% to 4 or 3%, and achieved stability in the Iraqi dinar exchange.” To me this is saying that we are in Phase 3 and nearing completion. So where do you think we really are as far as the Phases go?
AZGhostHunter: My thoughts are this: We are further along with the phases than they want us to know. That could by why they would pull up an old article to throw us off the trail. We have all learned (I hope lol ) about the misdirection that Iraq likes to throw at us often. There are more examples that we will talk about. But IMO this September article is smoke. And I think that is a good thing.
FRESH: AZGhostHunter my take is the CBI has the power here - they will make this happen when they want! Do they have the lower denominations at their disposal - yes - I think it's fair to say they do... Are they convinced now is the time to release - we see them saying "almost" in some of these updates of progress that aren't just old recycled articles. I think Shabs has a magic window he's always painted in his mind and the date was something he would see through it when he completed the picture... I think Shabs if finally setting up the players around the window to view it with him finally
AZGhostHunter: “The head of the Iraqi parliament Osama Najafi, said Thursday that next Monday will vote on the budget for the current year 2012, stressing that the adoption of the budget delay caused significant damage in the areas of investment.” According to this article, they should have voted on the 2012 budget today. Now it has been moved to Thursday. Remember, there was 7 billion (8 trillion dinar) missing from this budget. Of that 7 billion, 3.5 billion was found to have gone to ministries of the interior and education. How can the budget be approved when Maliki already took money from it? What are you thoughts on the 2011 budget, which has yet to be approved?
Fresh: AZ - I really like this article - but as of late they are really all over the board with "we are doing this meeting on this date" and the date comes and goes and we get another date. I'm hopeful they have something legit here to tidy up - but I'm also realistic in understanding it's a fluid situation and given their past this "Budget" could certainly get delayed again.
Fresh: I'll drop a bombshell AZ and reinforce again that we could see a new budget and the RV does not have to happen RIGHT THEN... there could definitely be some lag IMO to Shabibi and the CBI rolling it out even when we get to that point. Now the flip side to that argument is GREAT because that also means Shab's and the CBI and RV before the budget is finalized. Remember folks - the budget is based on dollars right now - so lets stay grounded on following this angle.
AZGhostHunter: OK.. the National Conference/Meeting: This stupid meeting has caused us more grief than most know. It was speculated to have started a month ago. We have been seeing a flood of articles stating that not only has it NOT started, but they hadn’t even decided on the agenda for it. today we finally got word that they have decided on the agenda http://peopleinvested.com/forum/showthread.php?8588-Nat-l-Conference-Agenda-completed&p=26984#post26984 (now they know what they will argue about) My personal opinion is that (as I stated on the last call) they have taken too long to have the meeting and therefore it will just be another typical get together where everyone argues and nobody agrees on anything (Pirates of the Caribbean reference lol ) It is said that we will get Erbil and HCL out of this meeting… but we have heard this many times before. Is this meeting even necessary? What do you think will come from it? Before or after Arab Summit?
Fresh: I think they have gone "dark" to some extent on keeping us in the loop on this "National Conference". They teased us initially about a month ago with letting us know we could get Ministers, HCL and Erbil out of this in days.. then they back off - then it's delayed - then it's a meeting to have a meeting to discuss when to do the National Conference. I start to wonder if they realized they were telling us too much and decided to keep it close to the chest and just drop it on us out of the blue.
Fresh: Also, with respect to the Arab Summit - it looks like they are focusing on that event for now knowing it's delicate and could be canceled like it was in 2011. I think they may work on the "other factors" including the RV behind the scenes while they publicly focus efforts on preparing for this event. Initially it was in March, now they say end of March - it's coming up soon so they are getting things in line it would seem!
AZGhostHunter: The Ministers: OK… we all know that we have to have the ministers seated in order for this thing to move forward. Maliki stepped up and said he would fill the minister’s seats. Another grab for power. That didn’t fly. They were appointed, maliki refused them, then M appointed some of his own people, parliament refused them. Back and forth we have been going for months. The Iraqi List has nominated candidates for the position, Maliki will most likely try to stop that. How much longer do you think this can go on?
AZGhostHunter:So we all know about ch 7. The big question always asked is “can we have an RV with Iraq still in ch 7?” Yes, having a valuable currency is part of the stipulations of getting out of chapter 7. However, we have been mislead before… “Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari confident Chapter 7 will be lifted “this summer” Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari told Fox News that Ban Ki Moon would be presenting a report to the Security Council next week and Iraq will be released from all 73 UN resolutions and Chapter 7 sanctions “this summer”. Iraq is currently forfeiting 5% of their oil revenues to Kuwait as part of the Chapter 7 arrangements…”
AZGhostHunter: Sounds good right? Sounds relevant right? This is from 2009.
Fresh: We have been teased with Iraq and Chapter 7 for awhile - at first the DFI on June 30, 2011 was something we thought would force it sooner than later.. Then June 30 comes and goes and nothing. Maliki keeps telling us for the last 6 months that any day now he will step on a plane for Kuwait and take care of business on all outstanding issues - Port of Mubarak, Borders, etc yet he never makes that flight to get it done. We see the articles cropping up again that he's "back and looking to go to Kuwait" this could be big.. the UN could be big - when does Iraq spring all the flow of good things that that can release to the world? That's the BIG question!
Q&A QUESTIONS - WE'LL START WITH THESE THEN GO LIVE TO ROOM!
[gpleas] I have a question Fresh is China really involved in this RV
Fresh: I've heard China being used as an excuse for "holding up the RV" for well over a year so I'm initially skeptical if I hear these other guru's use them as the scapegoat to why it hasn't happened. With that said, China has active interest in conducting business in Iraq pre and post RV - so they will want some reassurances along the way - but not to the extent they can hold up the RV for Iraq or the World. Without a doubt The United States is the biggest controlling factor in potentially having any say and I believe they've allowed the CBI to take the final step to release this to the world. China wants to make money AFTER the RV - will they make some money on this when it RV's - sure - but not nearly what the US has at stake.
AZGhostHunter: I haven’t seen anything concrete about China having anything to do with this. All I have read is speculation and like Fresh just said, another excuse for why this hasn’t RVd
[worleybird] Fresh - What is the word today? Are we still confident it will happen before March 15 th or are we looking at Sept now?
Fresh: September has resurfaced like we talked earlier in this chat from old articles that the different Iraq news outlets have been releasing randomly like they always do - so I think that's just smoke on the horizon right now. With that said, September is a LONG time away from now and with all the things going on it's hard to put a deadline that far out - knowing a lot can change in the coming weeks.
Fresh: The March 15 date you reference is interesting because we see a lot of activity starting to pick up with respect to the Arab Summit and possibly the National Conference following in footsteps sometime near the Arab Summit - I'd say the closer date is more realistic to follow right now - knowing the CBI has control and the September date is just old smoke they are blowing into the wind to make it's way to the US!
AZGhostHunter: I like this window of March. I have been of the mindset for a while now that once this Natl Conf/Meeting is out of the way, we could see some action leading up to the Arab Summit. If we look at the history of how Iraq has handled everything thus far, we see a lot of Ego-driven moves and decision making. With this in mind, all of the Arab Nations will converge on Iraq, and since they have set themselves up as the Big Dog, look to them for leadership. If Iraq is still in the state that it currently is in, they will, IMO, be the laughing stock of the Middle East. No govt, no currency, still in bankruptcy. I have my doubts that they will allow themselves to be laughed at like that.
[Lorraine] Is it true, Iraq has to RV their currency 30 days before the Arab Summit, if so has the date been postponed for March?
AZGhostHunter: Lorraine, I don’t see the Arab Summit having anything to do with the Date of the RV. I have not seen any time line that states that they have to Rv their currency 30 days prior. I am just going by a gut feeling on this in saying that they will WANT to have a currency worth more than 1/1000th of a dollar when they host all the other countries in the region.
[Fresh] AZGhostHunter I agree
[Lorraine] Fresh, I had also heard over a year ago, we would Not see an RV until the gas prices reach $5/gal.
[Fresh] AZGhostHunter you go first again - I'll weigh in!
AZGhostHunter: Lorraine, I don’t think that OUR gas prices will have any bearing on the RV. If whoever said that is coming from a point of view that oil will be scarce and that will drive up the price of gas, then I can see where they might be coming from, but to put a set cap on the price of gas and relate it to the RV… I’m not on board with that.
[Fresh] AZGhostHunter yeah I'll keep it short and then we'll get to our LIVE Q&A from chat - I'll say that it's just a common link we've heard over the grind we've followed all the theories - for example - Gold has to be at this price, Oil at this, etc
[AZGhostHunter] right... another flag to wave in our faces
[Fresh] I feel it's not a trigger to the RV - again as stated previous in chat this is something the CBI controls - not the world demand on Oil.
[AZGhostHunter] let's open it up man
[Fresh] AZGhostHunter okay and Mod's help us corral this
[Horton] So we r looking at march for the action to start
[Fresh] Horton it seems that way - all the fun stuff is starting in March - they tease us with maybe getting the budget done as soon as this Thursday - but my gut feeling is it will still delay from there as usual
[AZGhostHunter] Horton IMO, as I stated before, I like that window for us
[scarby] Fresh With all the hype on the 1 to 1, what do you feel is a closer amount for the rate?
[Fresh] scarby my gut feeling is the CBI wants this to be around .80 cents to $1.20 USD to 1 IQD - I think that will be dialed in on the market conditions.. it could come out less than that range or more.. but I think that's the IDEAL range for it to hit the markets and be stable initially
[Jersey] Az/fresh are you guys still sticking with this .26 rate? After hearing all the articles coming out?
[AZGhostHunter] Jersey we never called a .26 rate. unfortunately people heard .26 and freaked out and never got the point of the call.
[para~investigator] Jersey the .26 rate wasn't a rate in the first place
[Jersey] Fresh Okay i asked the ? wrong....Is this .26 still on the forex screen?
[AZGhostHunter] Jersey yes, but IMO Shabibi would not leak the rate. It is most likely a dummy rate used to hold that place on the screen
[Jersey] Az Thank You bud.
[worleybird] I missed the first part of the chat. Besides the budget being passed is there any other big hurdles to overcome befor RV?
[para~investigator] worleybird yes. hcl, erbil, ministers, goi
[JudahTribe8] Some saying China is pushing this through tonight and we should see it within 24 hours. Do you agree?
[AZGhostHunter] JudahTribe8 nope... IMO I have seen nothing to indicate that china has anything to do with IQD RV. as we stated china is most likely being used as an excuse for why it hasnt RVd yet
[JudahTribe8] AZGhostHunter Thx
[Horton] What is obamahs take on this as of now
[Fresh] Horton he needs an RV - ASAP - In my opinion to help his very slim chances at winning the next election - he's going to get hit hard for oil prices, jobs, and the economy still being weak. With respect to oil specifically he's getting beat up in the debate right now for not opening up more domestic production to take our reliance on foreign oil down a notch... This can be demonstrated with his decision to go against the Keystone / XL Pipeline project...
[Fresh] Obama could get a real "win - win" here with playing up the benefits of a "new found relationship" with Iraq that benefits Americans
[Jersey] Az can m seat the ministers without having this so called confrence?
[AZGhostHunter] Jersey yes, he could have done it 6 months ago. but it means giving up his dream of power. thats why he keeps delaying it
[CHAOS115] where are the Dinar Dealers getting all the Dinar,? so much has been taking off the streets, ? How much can be left ??
[Fresh] CHAOS115 dinar is still flowing from Iraq into the Middle East and some of it ultimately makes it in our hands from local dealers - here in the United States - for example. When they stop releasing all currency is when we finally see something very exciting (more than we've speculated on in recent months)
[La voz] Will they cancel the Arab Summit if the RV has not taken place.
[Fresh] La voz absolutely - they didn't do the Summit last year and no RV - AZ any thoughts?
[AZGhostHunter] La voz thats a good question. they cancelled it last year. Again, I will stick with my thoughts of Iraq not wanting to to look foolish even more than they do right now. I would think that they would want to invite everyone over and have everything up and running. otherwise people will walk out on them, going by history
[Horton] When it does rv how long should we wait before cashing in
[Fresh] Horton I would think cash in whatever you feel comfortable when the time feels right for you individually - even if the rate came in high for me personally - I would be very hesitant to "liquidate" too many IQD into USD without having the proper plan in place to move forward - the CBI seems to indicate we will have more than a "couple weeks" to make this all happen when we finally get to the end of the ride here
[RexFelix] Fresh seems like to me from all the articles i have been searching and posting that there is a real effort to get things done asap... they have dealt with malichi bluffs ,,, about postponement and cancelling arab summit .. all the countries have agreed to come ... turkey iran and syria not coming ... talk about budget passed by thursday or no one leaves .. credit card machines ... rules for banks .. control of auctions.. kurds situation addressed ... everything seems like they are wrapping up... i do believe we are on the verge and only civil ward or iran could stop.... if rv does not happen before april ... im in serious doubt of an rv.. even though i believe it will happen.
[Fresh] RexFelix here's the crazy thing - we ask if the RV has to happen for Iraq to host Arab Summit - however it could get canceled - regardless of the RV due to other factors.. This is good - they could RV and cancel it (ex: Turmoil in Middle East) - we get the RV...
[AZGhostHunter] RexFelix again, thanks for all the articles you have been posting. I hope you are right with your thinking... however, we have been on the edge before. I believe this will happen and happen soon, but not in a matter of days
[Baxter1243] I thought they were going to get the number of banks at the auction to be down to 3-4..and that looks like an awful big auction dollar wise...
[AZGhostHunter] Baxter1243 that was a speculation... or a hope.
[TEAMSTER391] Whats dates will the arab summit take place????
[AZGhostHunter] TEAMSTER391 arab summit 3/29 start date
[RexFelix] i agree AZGhostHunter i consider myself new to this but a quick learner ... all the articles have taught me well as well as what i have learned from all of you. You guys have kept me grounded... but sooo many articles about the plight of the iraqi's and all the legislature commenting on what they are doing will dramatically affect the citizens ... plus a share in the oil wealth ... and here is another thought ... i have seen them comment about the effort of pulling in the dinar off the street and the only reason i can think of them doing that is so they do not lose all the working class in the country after an RV ... so i believe it is close
[Horton] How much influence does Kuwait have on rv
[AZGhostHunter] Horton I'm sure that Fresh will weigh in, but here are my thoughts. Iraq still has to make things right with Kuwait. i dont think that it will stop the RV tho
[Fresh] Horton Kuwait has been getting PAID from Iraq - so the money is not the issue - I think it's more of posturing in front of the UN to let the "world" know - hey don't forget about what we went through and make sure Iraq doesn't forget... ultimately I think they will call an official meeitng and high five soon - just "soon" for me is in the next weeks or months.. to some that means days in this investment...
AZGhostHunter: In closing; we can sit here all day and tell you what we might think is FACT. We can sit here all day and tell you exactly what you want to hear, and if we wanted to put some effort into deceiving you, we could probably find snippets from articles that you yourselves have read and make it look like they are backing up our statements. But we won’t. We do what we do with integrity. That is what attracted me to People Invested, and I’m sure it is what attracted a lot of you as well. I know that a lot of people panicked when we mentioned a low rate that nobody wanted to hear. I will speak about this one final time, then I will not address it again. We never said that we knew the rate, we only relayed information that was shown to us. Fresh and I disagreed about whether or not we should tell everyone about it. In the end, we all chose to give you the information and hoped that everyone would hear it for what it was. Instead, everyone freaked out. We got slammed by everyone, save a handful of our faithful. People ran away in droves. Those who left us because of that call completely missed the boat. Had we never mentioned the information we had, and it RV’d and came out at .10, everyone would be asking what happened and why didn’t we tell them there was a possibility of it coming out that low. Had it happened that way, and people found out that we sat on the information all this time, then people would have hated us for that. So we took a leap of faith with everyone, and got burned for it. The thing that everyone overlooked during that whole fiasco was that it was showing on a forex screen as a pending revaluation of currency. Those who stuck with us afterwards were grateful for the information shared. So let’s put that behind us, and realize that we will share verifiable information as it comes in, good or bad. We will not tell you what to think, or chastise you for thinking differently than we do. We welcome all points of view and are willing to let you speak your mind, as long as it is not done as an attack. With that being said, I’m grateful for all of our members here.
[Fresh] it's hard to give "intel" when those that ask often want the answer to be "Today, Tomorrow" etc for the answer.. those that tell you that... well... now see there lies the problem