There is a lot of scuttle circulating about an impending RV. The truth is that none of us will know the exact date and rate. But, below is a list of things to consider. And, we believe we are very close.
We are not sharing intel on purpose. Simply put, we can't trust the information we get. There's your first fact!
I've compiled some factual information below that several of my buddies (Studley, Chickenwing and others) and I have been watching carefully. Hopefully this post is useful and keeps things in perspective.
1. Maliki stated back on Aug. 1 (give or take a couple of days) that the exchange rate would be adjusted within 72 hrs. of the Council of Ministers reduced salaries going into effect. Well, they were to be paid on Aug. 30 (yesterday) Remember, they took an 80% reduction in salary....Basically, working for nothing w/o an rv.
2. Tariffs go into effect Sept.1. "According" to Iraq this date will not be changed. Inflation will rise further.....
3. Compensation for victims and retirements were to be funded via smart cards within days according to a recent article
4. In our opinion, lower denoms will not be released until after the RV. The new coins will be useless to the people w/o an rv. I can't remember the article, but sometime ago I believe it was stated that ld would be released within 7 days of a change in currency. The smart cards will be used like our debit cards. It will ease the need for people to have physical possession of the ld's. Speculation - According to Delta, Shabibi stated that "God willing the Ld's would be released after the holiday"
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5. The Council of Ministers continued working without the presence of parliment through yesterday. (30th) They passed HCL, ........ Once bills get through this process and to parliment they are typically passed with unanimous vote.
6. CBI will be closed for 6 days - No auctions.
7. So far, there are no articles from the CBI today....I could have missed one.... BUT, this may be the first day in a long time.... It's not because they are closed. They were closed yesterday and we had articles...... (We'll have to see on this one)
8. The CBI has told us their intentions...day after day....
9. Iraq Government plans to announce $billions of investment opportunities at Iraq Mining 2011 - currency of value might be beneficial?
"The event will also see the unveiling of the most comprehensive geological survey ever conducted on Iraq by the US Geological Survey[i] and Iraq Geosurv. The rigorous study was undertaken over a seven year period and will reveal Iraq's hidden potential for the first time."
10. Last Friday Leader of Parliment Nijafi awarded himself and two aides 350 million in USD that was converted to 350 million dinar.... hmmm?????
11. Erbil Activation - Will Allawi's position become official as of Sept. 1????
We believe the RV is very close as within day(s)or weeks... Time will tell.... We're not the ones pulling the final trigger. And, no one that we know has been given Shabibi's playbook.
As Studley likes to say - "It's a currency play....And, it is Iraq".....
Please keep this investment in perspective....