Post From KTFA By Memphis » March 3rd, 2014,
In response to the latest blog of Martin Armstrong he has put out this follow-up today. It is of interest to me for several reasons but please note the high level of regard that he has with people of caliber the world over. I do not bring his thoughts here just to fill space.... :thug:
This post will serve as a good lead-in to my next post in reply to a PM. Blessings, Memphis
Memphis note: On occasion Martin uses some rather off-color remarks in his blogs. I reserve the right to edit only as needed for public (KTFa) consumption. :pompom:.
Read More Link On Right
War – Civil v International By Martin Armstrong
Posted on March 2, 2014
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I studied at the Citadel Military College where I was introduced in Philosophy to your Economic Confidence Model. They taught it [the ECM] there in case you do not know.
I must say, your recent comment distinguishing civil war and unrest coming from the people and international war arising from kings and ministers is truly fascinating. I dare say, it is exceptionally insightful.
I have seen war and been in the chain of command. You have made an important observation that should be taught everywhere. Congratulations MKL
REPLY: Yes I do not recall the professor’s name there. I do recall [when] he called and was the first to tell me I was a modern-day Hegel. He asked permission to teach the ECM there [at the college] sometime during the early 1980s. I am not sure it is still being taught there or not.
In all honesty, he was the first to tell me the ECM had deeper implications than just markets. Shortly after that, Milton Friedman came to hear me speak in Chicago [ and he further encouraged me to take the message to the masses]. [ Prior to this time] I had assumed I was just [meant/destined to be ] a trader.
I was not seeking to discover something more than just that. So the Citadel in a way also pushed me forward as well.
It is clear, just look at the American Revolution and the French Revolution not to mention the US Civil War. The common thread in these movements sprung from the people.
[With] World War I and II the US people were isolationists and it was the government that did everything in its power to get involved. Even the issue of did the Japanese declare war before Pearl Harbor was spun in a way to enrage the American people into war.
The attack took place before any actual formal declaration of war was made by Japan. However, this was not in fact Admiral Yamamoto’s intention.
Yamamoto initially directed that the attack should not commence until 30 minutes AFTER Japan delivered its declaration of war. He was cutting it close trying to keep the element of surprise, but events did not unfold as he desired.
Tokyo transmitted the 5,000-word notification in two blocks to the Japanese Embassy in Washington. However, they took too long to translate it into English and did not deliver it in time.
However, the US code breakers had already deciphered and translated most of the message hours before it was scheduled to [be] delivered.
It has been argued that the US could have been prepared but would not win the support of the people to get involved in Europe no less Asia as a first strike.
Hence, the distinguishing fact between international wars is always the driving force begins with kings and ministers compare to a grass-roots uprising that is domestic as we saw in Ukraine despite the [manure being spread to the contrary].
If you look at Augustus, he targeted Cleopatra rather than Mark Antony as the enemy for fear the people would not support a civil war. This was in spite of the fact that coins were being issued showing Antony and Cleopatra together.
One needs an external enemy to gather support for war. Even Brutus, the famous assassin of Julius Caesar, had to spin stories about Caesar that were not true and issued coins bragging he killed Caesar on the Ides of March.
Post By Memphis » March 3rd, 2014, *********************************
This was sent to me via PM. Since I do not answer PM's due to time constraints this one is being brought out into the light of day for all to see.
Thanks guys for all the positive feedback I am getting. I will continue as time allows. :gracias:
Hi Memphis, I saw your post today (Post 82) concerning the cycles of war, your note to Martin Armstrong and his subsequent response. Thank you for sharing this thought-provoking subject.
Memphis [note: Glad it was of interest but the person writing him was not me. I simply bring things that help add to our understanding of the world and want to always give credit to others.]
About a year ago, I stumbled upon some simple math concerning our history since the birth of our nation in 1776. If you add 80 years to that date you get 1856. Add another 80 years to that and you get 1936.
Add another 80 to that and you get 2016. Although not exact, 1856 signifies the days leading up to the Civil War; 1936, the days leading up to World War II and who knows what the next 80 will reveal.
It's obvious these days are not inclusive of every major event in our history, but these certainly are arguably some of the most significant.
Memphis [note: Good point, there are many cycles predictive of war and not all should be weighted equally in that some are more reliable than others.
The one which I am most familiar has presented once each century dating back a full 1,000 years such that in the 2nd decade of each century there has been a major conflict on the earth resulting in the power centers of man being shifted.
Also of interest, this 100yr cycle manifests in the first half of the 2nd decade nearly 70% of the time.
This then (independent of all other cycles) tells us to expect a major world war between now and 2020 with a slightly higher probability falling prior to 2016.
Some war cycles stretch this date out a few years past 2020 but the convergence (so I am told) points to the near term and almost as if it was right on cue we have seen major unrest break out in Ukraine Jan2014.
Putin has now given til sunrise tomorrow before he will order an attack. I am not trying to say that this global war kicks off this week tho! The best thinking I have seen says not to L@@K for anything wide scale until October.]
So, could it be that cyclical economic practices eventually repeat themselves and then they spawn cyclical political events-including war? Or is war the goal and economic actions are decidedly made to start the process.
Memphis [note: economic cycles always repeat. Men fight this trend showing their lack of understanding but the cycle always completes. As detailed earlier today ALL things are interconnected.
Your question here is linear suggesting that there is a simple cause/effect answer. Think bigger.
For example, politicians act based on their own selfish interests despite what any economic model might say otherwise. Look at the US for evidence! Have you heard any politicians calling for:
1) term limits for all elected offices
2) abolish the income tax for one based on consumption only
3) reduce social programs and reduce the federal work force by 50%?
No? Any of the above would reduce their own power and ability to maintain their position in the next election. So the politicians do what the system allows with little to no thought on the greater good. ‘
When war comes it will simply be because it was time. Events the world over are building up to this. From civil unrest to gov't intrusion into your privacy and the desperate need for $ to feed the debt ridden system.
As to economies being controlled or steered by gov't? That's not a short answer.
Looking again to the US tho? The best our leaders have been able to do is manipulate interest rates and debase the currency thru monetary policy. These guys have only made a very big mess....bigger.
All things are inter-connected and history tells us the final act if we only take time to look....]
I do realize that today's military is striving towards a more automated military machine where pilotless drones and smaller, quicker teams can accomplish what a huge force could in the past. This might explain the ability for military cuts in spending.
[I would disagree. Today's $ buys less and tech (the way our gov't lets contracts) is not cheap.
The military spending cuts are not from cost savings thru frugality. We simply cannot afford big gov't spending. I promise you that within 12-18mo MANY people who are still asleep will finally wake up when they begin to notice all the gov't programs that are being cut/slashed/and removed.]
Is it coincidence that in the days prior to World Wars I and II, this country was in an isolationist position and the military machine was much smaller- only to be built up prior to the conflict? The economy is struggling mightily despite what this administration is reporting.
Memphis [note: the blame does not stop at the White House, our media has forsaken any attempt at unbiased and unfiltered reporting. As to the economy struggling mightily? Yep, your paying attention to the world around you and not what your TV tells you.....kudos.]
These are interesting cycles indeed. Just wanted to share these thoughts with you and interested in hearing your perspective.
Memphis [note: thanks for sharing, sorry I don't have time to do more.]