Post From Wealthwatch.world Chat Room
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Wealthwatch Tuesday PM Chat 1-5-16 Part 2 of 2
chattels: My sense is that the Kurds are approaching " self sufficiency " with their oil exports or at least revenues equal to or greater than funding from Baghdad.
OOTW: IF TRUE, GOOD FOR THEM
OOTW: BAGHDAD NEEDS TO BE ON THEIR KNEES TO THE KURDS NOW
OOTW: YES AGREED
chattels: The Ramadi illusion : The Iraqi military's long overdue capture of Ramadi is still uncertain and will hardly be enough to defeat the Islamic State. Read more at wealthwatch.world/showthr...
OOTW: THE KURDS HAVE OFTEN TIMES ALLOWED OR PROMOTED SUCH PRESS RELEASES WHEN THEY WANT TO NEGOTIATE
chattels: " Invariably, military bombast is smokescreen for lack of operational closure, and this Anbari episode is no exception. For at least three reasons, the push into Ramadi cannot yet be regarded as decisive. "
OOTW: YES, THERE ARE MIXED REPORTS ON RAMADI AND MY INTUITION TELLS ME FROM THE "WE'VE TAKEN RAMADI BACK" ARTICLES THAT THESE ARE MORE PRESS RELEASES MEANT AS A WAY TO "MAKE IT SO"
chattels: " They betray a vividly impatient desire on the part of the Iraqi authorities and their regional and international allies to paint a victory — any victory — against IS at the price of far-sighted strategy, realistic assessment and lessons learned — and that, in itself, is an indication of how much genuine and innovative effort will be needed from them to decisively battle IS in the long run."
chattels: " ........... most revealingly, Ramadi is arguably not that important for IS. The group will only be dealt a blow in Iraq when the city of Mosul is brought back under the control of the central government."
chattels: ‹@OOTW› Lots of government propaganda, agreed.
OOTW: YES - MOREOVER - MOSUL HAS HAD MUCH TIME FOR DAASH TO BECOME ENTRENCHED - EFFECTING ALSO THE ECONOMICS OF THE REGION - MOST OF THE MONEY LAUNDERING IS SAID TO BE HAPPENING THERE
OOTW: I PRAY THEY CAN CAPTURE MOSUL IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS
OOTW: BASED ON YOUR INFORMATION RE RAMADI, I HAVE TO WONDER IF ALL OF THE SUPPLIES, FOOD, ETC WHICH ARE NOW BEING SAID TO BE TRANSPORTED ARE (ONCE AGAIN) GOING TO BE INTERCEPTED BY ANY REMAINING DAASH?
chattels: The GOI cannot afford to pay the Kurds. The Kurds would have to produce one million barrels per day to equal a gross of 1.2 billion per month.
chattels: Currently Kurdish production is about 650,000 per day
OOTW: SO BEFORE THE GOI COULD PAY THE KURDS AND CHOSE NOT TO, NOW THEY CAN'T PAY THE KURDS AND HAVE TO HAVE THEIR MONEY?
OOTW: DARK LAUGHTER HERE
OOTW: CATCH 22 OF HUGE PROPORTIONS - BAGHDAD CERTAINLY HAS DUG A HUGE HOLE
OOTW: NO WONDER ARMS ARE NOW BEING SENT TO THE KURDS/PESHMERGA
chattels: ‹@OOTW› I do not believe that the Kurds are going to send any money to Baghdad, oil or tariffs
chattels: The value and reliability of the Kurds grows internationally every day, IMO
chattels: ‹@OOTW› I do not believe that Mosul is doable for some months or maybe a year.
chattels: Ramadi incomplete, Fallujah, Anbar desert, Hawiija, Sharqat, etc. remain before Mosul.
OOTW: YOU ARE MUCH MORE VERSED RE THIS THAN I - THAT SOUNDS DAUNTING AND PUTS RETAKING MOSUL, MANY MONTHS OUT
chattels: " At best, the second battle of Ramadi is a further illustration of the hybrid new wars where attrition, siege, drones, air cover, disinformation, infantry, car bombings and counterterrorism blend to generate temporary advances in the face of fluid situations. "
OOTW: I HAVE TO WONDER WHY ABADI TOLD THE KOBER INSTITUTE THAT THEY SHOULD HAVE DAASH FULLY ADDRESSED BY THE END OF 2015?
chattels: The ouster of DAESH must be followed by security.
OOTW: YES AND THIS HAS BEEN THEIR FAILING IN THE PAST
chattels: ‹@OOTW› Recently he said 2016.
chattels: " ........... temporary advances in the face of fluid situations. "
chattels: Abadi is a salesman to some extent. He speaks to be heard by the people. Note Zebari's repeated mention of civilian unrest.
OOTW: "SALESMAN" ABSOLUTELY
chattels: Or concern therefor.
OOTW: YES, ANOTHER DIMENSION TO ADD
chattels: ‹@OOTW› Even he as a salesman could only muster the assertion that Iraq is 80% safe for business.
OOTW: WELL YES, AND THEREIN LIES THE REASON FOR THE (IF ONLY SOMEWHAT) POTENTIAL FASLITIES RE THE RETAKING OF RAMADI
chattels: Add to all of the foregoing the costs of reconstruction and resettlement. Assuming they can decide upon who may return.
OOTW: WELL, CERTAINLY, THEY SHOULD NOT BE DROPPING THE BALL AT ANY RATE
OOTW: OR SHOULD BE SEEN NOT TO
chattels: Actually, they expect the world to pay for it all.
OOTW: YES AND ABADI HAS SAID AS MUCH
chattels: Thus all of the rhetoric and posturing about Iraq fighting the world's battle against DAESH !
OOTW: HE CERTAINLY HAS CHUTZPAH
chattels: Paris club debt, Kuwait reparations, etc. likely on hold indefinitely.
OOTW: I CANNOT IMAGINE THAT THE MANY COUNTRIES THAT HAVE "INVESTED" IN IRAQ WOULD DO SO WITH ABSOLUTELY NO HOPE FOR THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY
chattels: The pundits have the answer though. All Iraq has to do is declare their currency to be worth 1,000 + percent more than it is, eh ?
chattels: Zebari does say that Iraq's debt is far less than other nations.
OOTW: LOL - YES THE LESSER OF THE POSSIBILITIES IS A CHICKEN VS EGG SCENARIO - THEY HAVE TO GET THE INSURGENCY DEALT WITH AND LAUNCH THEIR PRIVATE SECTOR..THEY CAN DO THE LATTER EVEN WITH DAASH IN THE COUNTRY
OOTW: AND IT SEEMS THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE ATTEMPTING
OOTW: AS I'VE STATED, THEY'RE UNLIKELY TO LAUNCH THEIR CURRENCY TO ANY SIGNIFICANT "RV" WITHOUT DEALING WITH PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT/EXPORTING
chattels: ‹@OOTW› Maybe our best hope is some form of global debt reset, eh ?
chattels: Way above my pay grade :)
OOTW: THAT'S BUTI'S PERSPECTIVE
OOTW: I HOPE FOR MORE THAN A "OUR DINAR IS WORTH MORE BECAUSE OTHER CURRENCIES VALUES HAVE FALLEN" SCENARIO
OOTW: BUT I AM NO EXPERT WHEN IT COMES TO A POTENTIAL GCR
chattels: ‹@OOTW› Hoping here as well friend. We shall see, eh ?
OOTW: RIGHT NOW WE'RE SIMPLY WAITING FOR THEM TO REACH AND MAINTAIN THE 2% COMPLIANCE ON A REGULAR BASIS
OOTW: EXACTLY, FRIEND
chattels: ‹@OOTW› Holding " steady " at 2014 or ten " points " higher than the 2 %
OOTW: AND FOR THE AUCTIONS TO CEASE - OR GET UNDER CONTROL BY OUTSIDE SOURCES, BECAUSE IT SEEMS THAT ALTHOUGH WE'VE SEEN RECENT ARTICLES STATING THAT MOHSEN HAS TRIED TO GAIN CONTROL OF THE MONETARY REFORM/PROCESS –
SO WE ATTRIBUTED THIS TO HIS LACK OF ABILITY (IN RECENT PAST) - NOW SINCE SALEH AND DR. HAFEZ HAVE COME OUT AND BASICALLY STATED THAT THE CBI IS GUILTY OF CORRUPTION (MOHSEN,
AT THE VERY LEAST ALLOWING THIS - TURNING A BLIND EYE) - THIS TO ME SIGNIFIES A STRONG POTENTIAL THAT HIS POST MAY BE "DEALT" WITH, ONE CAN HOPE ANYWAY
OOTW: 2014 OR LESS I BELIEVE, YES
chattels: I am not going anywhere - " in for a penny, in for a pound " :)
OOTW: ACTUALLY I BELIEVE THE FIGURE IS 1212 OR LESS
OOTW: ME EITHER/NEITHER
chattels: ‹@OOTW› I calculated it at 2013.8
chattels: Sorry current rate is 1224
chattels: So, 1213.8
chattels: Source: US to form Sunni Arab military unit for Mosul By Nasir Nhely DUHOK, Kurdistan Region—The United States has decided to set up an extra military unit for Sunni Arab fighters from Mosul in preparation for their future offensive against the Islamic State (ISIS) in the city, a member of the Sunni said.
“The Americans said they will support us by all means and that they will establish a military base for us near Mosul, a well-placed source inside the Sunni Arab force told Rudaw on condition of anonymity. The new unit will be integrated into the Mosul Operations room.
The source explained that the decision to form the new unit was made upon realising that more manpower would be needed to push ISIS out of Mosul. “The force is not only to liberate Mosul. It will remain even after the operation to protect the recaptured areas in the region,”he said.
According to Brakat Shamo, a member of the Nineveh provincial council, the majority of forces being trained for Mosul are Sunni Arabs, but “ Kurds have also a prominent role in making decisions.”
“Now all the efforts are focusing on Kurds to participate in Mosul operation,” Shamo has added. Nearly 9,000 other fighters from Mosul are also being trained by the Turkish military at a base in Nineveh.
The men, including 1,200 former soldiers, are being trained under former governor Atheel al-Nujaifi.
chattels: " Nearly 9,000 other fighters from Mosul are also being trained by the Turkish military at a base in Nineveh."
chattels: The foregoing was likely at the heart of the " outrage " over the Turkish invasion.
chattels: Shia don't want Sunni to be trained and armed.
chattels: Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Rest of the World wealthwatch.world/showthr...
chattels: Interesting read.
OOTW: THANKS FOR THE CALCULATION CHATTELS - I'LL DO MY BEST TO FILE IT AWAY IN THE OL' NOGGIN
chattels: 1190 x's 2 % ( .02 ) = 23.8 added to 1190 is 1213.8
OOTW: thanks again