Post From Wealthwatch.world Chat Room 11-18-15
News With Links & Discussion
Wealthwatch Wednesday Chat 11-18-15 Part 1 of 2
chattels: How to resolve Iraq's economic crisis
chattels: " The estimated 2016 budget is as unrealistic as the 2015 budget."
chattels: “Oil revenues are nearing 59 trillion dinars [$53.05 billion]. Deducting the cost of oil production, the remaining amount will be 45 trillion dinars [$40.3 billion]. Salaries and pensions alone require 50 trillion dinars [$44.8 billion]. How will the expenses of war, health, education, agriculture, services, the poor and others be covered?”"
chattels: " ........ the 2016 budget will cover only the bare necessities, with no room for extraneous expenditures or investments."
chattels: " The most worrisome aspect of Iraq's deteriorating economic situation is that the government does not have a strategy to deal with this crisis. It has taken only temporary steps such as borrowing from foreign institutions or cutting salaries, both of which have exacerbated the problem."
chattels: Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, said the spread of poverty in the country "is normal."
chattels: He said al-Abadi in a conference to honor the competencies of the families of the martyrs, "a matter of course that poverty is spreading in the country, due to the war," he said, adding "we will work to raise the salaries of social welfare." chattels: wealthwatch.world/showthr..
chattels: Parliament Speaker: reconciliation project is a state project must contribute to all institutions in its drafting and activated 11/17/2015 9:03
chattels: " ........... that reconciliation project is a project that the state must contribute to all institutions in its drafting and activated, pointing out that the next meeting of the three presidencies will be allocated a large part of the research project of national reconciliation and ways to support and make it a success."
chattels: Again, I posit that National Reconciliation is a process and not an event.
chattels: " ....that the state must contribute to all institutions in its drafting and activated, ..."
chattels: Clearly it is NOT DRAFTED, let alone IMPLEMENTED !
chattels: Patriotic Union of Kurdistan: the coalition countries have threatened to cut off the provincial military and humanitarian aid if the political crisis continues
chattels: Political crisis ?
chattels: How can there be a political crisis in the midst of the reforms being accomplished?
chattels: The reality is that the reforms are stalled and we wait to see whether there will be any REAL reform.
chattels: Where is the high level Kurdish delegation that was to visit Baghdad ?
Donnie: Bloomberg Markets @markets 2h2 hours ago Germany Sells Two-Year Notes at Record-Low Yield of Minus 0.38% www.bloomberg.com/news/ar... … via @eshelouise
chattels: Abadi’s Failed Reforms by Kirk H.Sowell : Kirk H. Sowell is a political risk analyst and the publisher of the biweekly newsletter Inside Iraqi Politics. Follow him @uticensisrisk. wealthwatch.world/showthr...
chattels: The Iraqi parliament voted on November 2 to revoke any mandate for Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to conduct reforms, putting an end to an eleven-week period in which the weak head of government seemed to ride a popular wave.
The short era of “Abadi’s reforms”—from when he issued his first statement of reform measures on August 9—has often been mischaracterized both in terms of what Abadi was doing and the reasons driving opposition to him.
Both had less to do with fighting corruption than a more conventional power struggle, and his failure to enact reforms thus far has been due not only to Shia rivals’ efforts to undermine him but also his own missteps.
chattels: Abadi neither implemented nor even proposed measures aimed at bridging the Shia–Sunni divide, fighting the war against the Islamic State more effectively, or fighting corruption—despite Western media impressions to the contrary.
chattels: Three factors helped set the stage for the November 2 parliamentary vote, which declared that he was only to enact reforms in agreement with other political actors in parliament. The first was the fact that he had genuinely overstepped his constitutional bounds.
The constitution requires that the president have at least one vice president, and the 2011 law that provides a legal framework for the appointment and removal of vice presidents gives the prime minister no role in this.
Likewise, on August 16 Abadi issued an executive decree merging ministries and dismissing some ministers, something only parliament is empowered to do. An August 11 parliament vote endorsed Abadi’s original August 9 measures, but some of them—especially the abolition of the vice presidencies—were arguably unconstitutional, and parliament did not endorse any of his subsequent measures.
chattels: Abadi himself played down expectations of prosecuting senior figures, emphasizing the elimination of “waste” (hadr), rather than “theft” (sariqa), as the main goal of reform.
His only anti-corruption measures were the creation of two committees, one on transparency that Abadi would head himself (announced on August 9 and not heard from since) and the second to examine political parties’ use of public property. He left Hassan al-Yasseri, a loyalist of his own Dawa Party, in place as head of the Integrity Commission, which is the institution charged with bringing anti-corruption prosecutions.
And indeed none of the targets of investigations and prosecutions announced since August are well-connected to the major blocs, either Shia or Sunni.
chattels: Despite this support from both the Shia clerical establishment and the Shia street, Abadi began his reforms from a position of weakness because he was only elected over Maliki because of a split within his Dawa Party and the broader State of Law Coalition.
As a result, Abadi had no coalition base, and so he could only govern by consensus or by making executive appointments without parliamentary approval.
chattels: This does not mean Abadi will be removed from office, but only that his moment to build a public platform for reform has passed for now. The Shia and Sunni Arab parties criticizing him are on the opposite ends of the political spectrum, making a majority coalition against him impossible.
But until Abadi can run in an election at the head of a coalition—and win—he will have to depend on unstable issue-by-issue coalitions to get anything done.
chattels: Central Bank Of Iraq Tries To Deal With Fraud In Dollar Exchanges
chattels: In November 2015 the Central Bank of Iraq began handing out fines to private banks that were fraudulently buying dollars. Since 2012 there have been stories of all kinds of illegal and questionable activities going on with the country’s currency exchanges ranging from Iran and Syria using the auctions to get around international sanctions, to gangs and private banks using them to make money, to the Islamic State financing itself via them.
The Central Bank’s move appeared to come after warnings by the United States. At the same time, due to the interference by politicians and the rampant corruption within the country these punishments are unlikely to stop these practices.
chattels: One reason why tougher regulations on the currency auctions have not worked is because of political interference. The former deputy head of the Central Bank for example, recently told the Wall Street Journal that political parties tried to remove officials at the bank and put their loyalists in office.
In 2013 parliament found evidence that Iraqi politicians were interfering with dollar auctions. The year before, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had the governor of the Central Bank Sinan Shabibi removed on corruption charges. (1) Shabibi had tried to remove three senior Bank officials with connections to Maliki’s Dawa Party for money laundering, but the premier blocked him, and the charges against Shabibi were made by Maliki loyalists in parliament in what many saw as a power grab.
Given the weak state of institutions in Iraq, ones like the Bank are always open to pressure by the ruling elite with the removal of Shabibi being the most blatant. Politicians and their allies were also accused of profiting from the auctions, which gave them added incentive to make sure that nothing substantively changed with them.
chattels: Baghdad will be under added pressure to crackdown on its exchanges and those who manipulate them, but the political situation may undermine that effort. With the decline in oil prices Iraq is not bringing in as many dollars as it used to, which means it cannot afford to have so many flow out of its coffers in auctions.
At the same time, because Iraqi politicians use corruption to rule and see the state’s money as theirs for the taking their continued interference may stop any effective regime being established. Previous attempts to set up new rules for the auctions did not have any noticeable effect and the recent fines may not do anything either.
That’s because those that are in charge of implementing them are always open to pressure by the ruling parties or threats and bribes from them or other actors like gangs and insurgents. That means business will likely continue as usual in Iraq’s exchanges.
chattels: The fox(es) are in charge of the hen house as we have stated in here before.
chattels: :: 2015/11/18 14:03 •
chattels: Province: do not take the return of the old oil relationship with Baghdad and we sell to 10 countries
chattels: the Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Regional Government, drastically revealed, the details of the export of oil by the province and revenues, pointing out that the countries that buy oil of Kurdistan of 10 countries.
Hawrami said in an exclusive interview with the Reuters news agency: "We simply can not afford a return to the old arrangements with Baghdad and the widening financial gap again," after differences over the budget has evolved during the past two years, because Baghdad refused to share respects the province of the budget in 2014 and 2015 . chattels: wealthwatch.world/showthr...
chattels: I doubt very much that there will be an oil agreement between the GOI and the KRG even within the 2016 budget.
chattels: " ......... by the month of March and we came to the conclusion that we had no choice but to to begin oil sales independently again." has been reported by us in here.
chattels: "We simply can not afford a return to the old arrangements with Baghdad and the widening financial gap again,"
chattels: The marketing of oil with the long term needs for contracts and sales cannot be turned on and off like a spigot. The path seems clear to me. Financial separation between the GOI and the KRG is a current and unavoidable reality. Forget the rhetoric of the Shia politicians in Baghdad, IMO.
Doug_W: their sectarianism is killing them making forward progress......what a shame they are so rich and too dumb to recognize what is needed to "move forward"
Donnie: ‹@Doug_W› too stubborn
Donnie: they know what needs to be done but won't give in to the other group/sects idea.
Donnie: they each have their own idea and won't change for fear of looking weak.
Donnie: instead of looking for what's best for Iraq they focus on what's best for their party
Donnie: hmmm - sounds like congress :)
Stash: they learned well from us... GM all
Doug_W: egg zactly Donnie
TxBrand: www.theiqdteam.com/blog/a... After 50 Alpha class .. Central Bank will present currency 100 000 Iraqi dinars
TxBrand: In this year, will offer 50 class thousand dinars and in the next year will go category 100 000 dinars
TxBrand: so they are going to keep going higher ?
chattels: "XXXX " : THE SECOND READING ( budget ) HAS BEEN DONE AND THEY EXPECT VOTE THURSDAY.
chattels: A second reading " done " is questionable / doubtful.
chattels: What Thursday is she talking about ?
chattels: Meetings, discussions and amendments regarding the budget are ongoing according to the news that I read.
TxBrand: Published: Tue, 17 Nov 2015 13:39:19 | Views: 144 Baghdad _ news of the day, the parliamentary Finance Committee, revealed on Tuesday that the Central Bank is in the process of putting up a new category of 100 thousand dinars, pointing out that "50 thousand to 100 thousand dinars, contains 13 feature, where the possibility of forgery impossible.
Commission rapporteur said Ahmed Haji Rashid, in a press statement that "after our meeting with the Central Bank of Iraq, we have seen many new information on the new denominations of 50 000 and 100 000, and this year he will put 50 thousand dinars, and next year will launch a class 100 thousand dinars to the market,"
Rashid said, "in the near future would raise about 5 trillion dinars from 50 thousand dinars".
And about the cost and the characteristics of these new currencies, said Ahmed Haji Rashid, "each one of these two currencies commissioned about 6 cents, and has been reprinted by a German company, and have 13 feature, which makes the possibility of forgery impossible."
The Central Bank of Iraq announced Wednesday 11 November 2015, issued new banknotes class 50,000 dinars, with the aim of completing the structure of Iraqi banknotes and develop high-value category. today-news.org/news.php
TxBrand: there is that word again ------> raise
Tootsie: Iraq intends to issue international bonds two billion dollars next year Wednesday November 18 2015 18:27 Alsumaria News / Baghdad Governor of the Central Bank announced on the Keywords, on Wednesday, Iraq's intention to international bond issue two billion dollars in 2016 to guarantee from the World Bank for up to half that amount CONT wealthwatch.world/showthr...
Donnie: "with the aim of completing the structure of Iraqi banknotes and develop high-value category."
Donnie: "with the aim of completing the structure of Iraqi banknotes and develop high-value category."
Donnie: then they can drop the 3 zeroes so 100k = 100, 50k = 50, 25k = 25 and add the new lower denominations
Donnie: the obvious question is what will the 25k banknote be worth? 25000 x "new rate" or 25 x "new rate"
TxBrand: ‹@Donnie› who said that ?
Donnie: ‹@TxBrand› who said what? i have 3 postings
TxBrand: then they can drop the 3 zeroes so 100k = 100, 50k = 50, 25k = 25 and add the new lower denominations
Donnie: i just did - i've said it for 6 mos since they eluded to it way back then
TxBrand: high value to them may mean 100,000 notea :dizzy:
TxBrand: ‹@Donnie› ok
Donnie: yes it could
Comments may be made at the end of Part 2 Thank You