In the light of the recent excitement regarding whether in fact the RV has occurred or will occur in the next 24 hours or so, I do not want what I am going to read to you to sound like sour grapes. So I am going to go ahead and read my statement, after which I will comment on the recent intel and excitement.
I thought that it is about time that I came on and gave my perspective as to just exactly where we are again before this thing pops out in front of us all. At that point I won’t have anything to say, will I? So here goes.
First, for those of you who are newbies, I’d like to let you all into two simple facts that explain clearly just how I fit into the GET team profile. Unlike Rodney and TerryK, I have no contacts and no intel whatsoever.
Well, that isn’t exactly true. You see, I happen to be a close friend of Sinan Shabibi, the head of the CBI. But our relationship is “privileged” and I’m sworn to secrecy on almost everything we discuss. Actually, we don’t talk a lot together. He is, after all, half way around the world. But on occasions, such as this very week, incidentally, he does come to America and, when my busy schedule permits, we meet. Usually we meet in Newport Beach, California at the Balboa Bay Club. It is really quite a long trip for me, almost 90 miles one way, but, given the fact that he has come half way around the world I find it difficult to refuse his offers to play hand ball with me.
One would never suspect that a nearly 80 year old man could be a decent hand ball player, but he actually does beat me on occasion. You see I’m only 62, so I have an age advantage over him, so to speak.
What makes Sin so much fun – Oh, did I call him that? I’m sorry, but that is the nickname I’ve given Sinan Shabibi. Fortunately his English isn’t great, so he has no idea about the metaphor in calling him “Sin”. I only hope that Maliki or Zubaidi don’t let him in on my little secret!
Anyway, as I said, it is really difficult for me to divulge some of the very sensitive information that he has given me. Since the RV of the dinar is a huge global event, one that has to be handled with great delicacy, I’m sworn to secrecy, as I’ve said.
So, instead, I thought it might be fun to comment on some of the other “intel” that floats around on the internet on a daily and never-ending basis. I have no axe to grind with any individual in particular, so I will make every effort to avoid naming anyone. But I think that it is now time to clear the air on some of the more important issues that face us as we move to the finish line on this crazy ride.
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What I am referring to is logic, simply put. I have found that there is a great deal of “fluff” that is expressed now on an ever increasing basis, and a great deal of it has no source other than the “fluff” source, if you will.
In saying that, I am certainly not denigrating any particular individual. In fact, as I have said many times in the past, I have a great deal of respect for any individual who has the courage to regurgitate something that has been fed to him, over and over again, ad infinitum, and ad nauseum.
The reality is that there is no intel that has yet proven to be accurate to any great degree. That is just a simple fact. What does that mean, really? Let’s examine this a moment before I get into a few particulars.
I suspect that it has not passed your eye that up until now the RV has failed to occur, be announced, or show up anywhere on a screen in a bank, on FOREX, or be announced on television. Yet for the last year or so that event has been heralded with such voluminous excitement that we all, if we are sentient beings, should have figured out by now that no one knows much of anything about this investment.
Well, I suspect that I now have your attention, so I may as well get down to some facts, as I understand them. I will start by dispelling what I call BS. I think that this term is an accurate description of some of these items.
Recently we had a guru announce that the RV would not occur until all of the dinars in the field were sold to folks like us. He said that the reason was because the US government wanted all of the dinars in our hands first so that they could get the capital gains taxes from us. Therefore this was an attempt, apparently driven by the Obama administration, to maximize the tax revenue from these dinars.
Now, I want you all to just ask yourself a simple question: if the dinars are in the US, whether held in a bank or by a trade company, or by us, do you really think that the US government won’t tax them when the RV occurs? In other words, for example, if there is a gain to be made, either by you and me, or by Ty, or Ali, or Robert, do you think for a minute that the US Government isn’t going to know about it and get their pound of flesh?
So, the “intel” sort of loses steam, doesn’t it? Do you GET it?
Let’s take another example that probably affects more than one guru. This can get complex so I will try to break it down into pieces for us, so that we can see just how absurd a lot of this stuff really is.
Let’s talk about the relationship of a now sovereign country, as we understand Iraq is now sovereign, and the US government. I find it amazing, actually, that there is a great deal of “intel” that purports to state not only that the US government has a great deal of influence over this RV, but that the gurus are privy to conversations held within the highest levels of our government on this very issue.
Once again, I appeal to your logic. How many countries in the world look to the US to determine their actions? That’s really a pretty simple question, isn’t it? Does Venezuela call the US government before it decides to do what it wants? I don’t think so.
Well, now, wait a minute, you might say: the US has MADE Iraq what it is today, and it has something to say about what goes on there, right? WRONG! If anyone ever had anything to say about what goes on in Iraq it was the UN, and they have announced more than once now that Iraq is SOVEREIGN.
The word sovereign is very important, because it has been used not only by the UN but also by our own president in regard to Iraq. The word sovereign means this:
Independent of, and unlimited by, any other; possessing, or entitled to, original authority or jurisdiction; as, a sovereign state; a sovereign discretion.
Now, once we know the definition of sovereign we know that when Obama, or anyone else, for that matter, calls Iraq “sovereign” then it means that Obama, or anyone else, for that matter, has no power over them, right? This is really simple folks, so stay with me here.
What is the import of that statement? I will tell you what: all gurus who claim that the US government has been holding up the RV are incorrect. That is about as nice as I can say this. They are simply wrong. Iraq is sovereign. Therefore, it makes its own decisions, and NO ONE, including the IMF, or the BIS, or the UN, or the US government has any CONTROL over those decisions.
Now, having said that, however, this does NOT mean that those entities cannot exert influence over Iraq and its decision making processes.
Yet the simple fact remains that the ultimate decision regarding when, how, and how much the RV will amount to is an Iraqi decision, and theirs alone. Are we clear on this now? That is what “sovereign” means, and both our president and the UN have stated that Iraq is sovereign.
Ok, so now we focus on Iraq, since that is where the RV will come from, right? So let’s look at some more of the “intel” over the last few months.
Perhaps you all recall that Shabibi said he was going to pass the “remove the three zeros” by the ministry department and then on to parliament. Remember that? And the intel came out from several gurus that this was done about 2 months ago and was approved, right? However, just this last week I read an article from a reputable source in Iraqi news that only this last week Shabibi finally presented his “remove the three zeros” proposal to Parliament. Fortunately the article also said that they approved the proposal.
But here is the point: how many of us were fooled into thinking that this was already done 8 weeks ago? Huh? And why? I will tell you why. Some gurus take a piece of pie and turn it into a full cake right before our eyes. It happens over and over again. That is just the facts.
You may have noticed that I stopped playing the game some few months ago. I actually wrote about my decision in one of my many writings in which I said that it was time to “let go, and let God” do His thing. As you can see, some 8 weeks later, God has yet to do His thing. However, our membership has continued to be swayed by erroneous and excitable intel nevertheless.
It is not my desire to stop the merry-go-round, even if I could. Clearly I cannot, and I have no intention of attempting to do so. What I am trying to do is bring a sense of sanity to the discussion. As a former seminarian I had learned this favorite phrase about interpreting Biblical passages: “If the plain sense makes sense, don’t look for any other sense.” I have referred to this before and many of you may recall it.
Tonight, I want to place a twist on that phrase that may well apply to our investment. Here it is: “If the intel makes no sense, don’t follow it to find any more sense in it.”
I say this for this simple reason: there is some intel out there that simply makes no sense. But it gets worse than that, because some gurus, in their desire to please their audience, pick up these “tidbits” of nonsense, put them together, and create even larger nonsensical intel.
A perfect example recently was the one where the US Treasury was going to open up offices around the country for trading in the dinar. Remember that one? I called that one out immediately, but it still took awhile for it to die, didn’t it? Are there any US Treasury offices open? Of course not. The “tidbit” which had nothing to do with the dinar but had only to do with the IRS trying to look nicer to the public, turned into “intel” and spread like wildfire, only to die for lack of fuel some weeks later.
I want to make a proposal. Let’s just stop with the tidbits and get down to basics. In doing so no one will get hurt, but a lot of folks may find a degree of sanity in their lives. I have absolutely no influence directly over any gurus, so I suspect that what I am saying may fall on deaf ears among them. After all, they are so busy gathering erroneous information that they probably don’t have time to read my little rant anyway.
On the other hand, I suspect that I have a fairly large audience and a somewhat sophisticated one at that. I’ve been told that many of you actually enjoy listening to what I have to say. I want to thank Kevin, incidentally, for asking me to step up to the plate tonight. You can blame him if you don’t enjoy this! JOKE!
So what, exactly, am I trying to say tonight? Clearly this message is somewhat different from my earlier more spiritual diatribes, but at the same time, as usual, I come to a point toward the end to give you all something to ponder.
So here it is: just as I’ve warned you about the pitfalls of having excessive wealth, and how to handle it, I also want to warn you of the pitfalls of excessive and obsessive attention to gurus. I am NOT saying that they are pumpers or are in any way trying to lead you somewhere with a hidden motivation. In fact I believe that they are almost all genuinely sincere. But I also know that they are all wrong. And it is in this area that I’d like you to place your focus for just a moment longer.
Has it occurred to you yet that the “intel” is really totally bogus? Has that hit home yet, or are you all still in this daze in which you cling to the net, or a call, awaiting the information that, deep in your heart, you know will be incorrect the next morning?
Doesn’t this concern you? If not, I suggest that it should concern you. It definitely concerns me, and I have some very close friends here who are just as frustrated as I am while at the same time they participate in this charade.
So what do we make of all of this? Should we throw the baby out with the bath water and just wash our hands with this whole investment? Of course not!
There is, in my view, a better course, and I would like to impress upon any guru who is listening to me to consider this very seriously. Let’s just start with sources, OK? It seems to me that if a “source” is incorrect 2 or 3 times in a row that any smart guru would figure out that the “source” is not worth listening to. I mean, this is really just simple logic. Yet for about 3 years now we get the same “sources” saying the same things over and over again, only to be wrong, over and over again. So what is the answer? It’s really simple: stop listening to those sources.
Of course we all know what would happen if the gurus did this: they’d be “out of business”, wouldn’t they? But that is just the point: this isn’t a business that they are making anything from anyway, so who cares? I have a suggestion: use a bit of discretion, for God’s sake, before you pontificate about what is going to happen tomorrow night! THINK!
Unfortunately, my appeal will almost certainly fall on deaf ears. There is now a cottage industry that has been built on “entertaining the troops”, and some gurus relish this role and have no desire to see it end. The result, unfortunately, is that “intel” begins to have a life of its own. It gets “created”, if you will, and then moves on. The perfect example of this is the first one I mentioned, where someone said that all the dinars had to be sold to us before the RV could happen. Give me a break! I hate to say this, folks, but that sort of thinking is the product of an overactive mind looking for an audience.
Now that I’ve upset all of the gurus in our little investment club, I will end with another thought. My dear friend Kaperoni has done the right thing from the beginning. He reads, digests, and reports. He claims no special intel sources other than a man who apparently translates Arabic into English for him. Nothing that Kaperoni reports is without verification. In fact, he is so meticulous that he places the words in quotes when he reads them in chat and gives links so that folks can VERIFY what he has done. In short, he has set the standard. I applaud my dear friend Kaperoni for doing an excellent job!
For the rest of the gurus, who of necessity cannot reveal their sources, claiming any number of reasons, I suggest that you use more caution before passing on BS. I, for one, am tired of it. Three years is enough. I get it. You don’t know any more than I do.
Shabibi will hopefully be able to get away from Jackson Hole long enough to spend a day with me in Newport Beach. If he has anything important to say, I’ll let you know. On the other hand, if he just offers me “intel” I’ll probably keep quiet.
I hope I have not offended more than a few of you. For the rest, I hope you enjoyed my rant. Of course I could be wrong on this, but I doubt it very seriously.
This completes my original prepared remarks. I would not like to make a comment about what we have seen in the last 24 hours in terms of intel. First, I would like to commend OKIE for stepping up to the plate, both with his original statement, then with his apology statement, and most recently with his clarification of the nature of his source in Iraq. This is exactly the sort of intel that we need: straight forward, open, and with enough information to give us all an idea as to its veracity, or lack thereof.
Furthermore, I would like to commend Tony for his support of OKIE in this matter. Tony added some more information that leads me to believe that OKIE is really onto something.
And finally, I have already read from Bondlady that the RV has not in fact occurred. This is the sort of thing that gets us all frustrated, but at least she too gave us enough information regarding who her source is for us to realize that this is a real firefighter in Iraq.
In short, the situation is very fluid right now. I applaud those gurus who continue to step up to the plate, in spite of the potential pitfalls. However, having said that, my previous comments remain, in my opinion, as a valid statement about the plethora of BS that we’ve had to endure for the last few years.
Thank you all for listening.