This past weekend articles talked about the U.S. administration would like that Ayad Allawi to take over as prime minister for the next government and put pressure on the political blocs to accept him as an acceptable candidate to the majority of the parties.
Americans are now conducting intensive contacts with the leaders of political blocs and pushing them and with a number of regional countries, except Iran and some of its allies from the Europeans, in attempt to form a partnership government in Iraq, headed by Iyad Allawi, who is accepted by Arab, American and European..
If Maliki can’t somehow weasel, convince or threaten his way back into the prime minister position for a 3rd term, he will instead submit Tariq Najim for the post of prime minister for the State of Law Coalition. I do not believe he will not have much of a chance since the other candidates far outweigh his popularity and are not associated with the State of Law coalition which is like a sour lemon on most taste buds these days….lol….(especially after this last outbreak of violence). I might add also add that no one can stop the State of Law from submitting a candidate to parliament for the PM however in my opinion it is a total waist of their time and just another show and tell ploy by Maliki to may us believe his party still has some credibility.
About the recent Article 140 rumor-
I also heard that Maliki had made a deal to implement Article 140 and that the Kurds agreed to it. This is great news however it is only a proposal put forth by Maliki. It means nothing unless the new session of parliament is held and they vote on it and accept it. I also want everyone to remember that the constitution of Iraq already provides for these disputed oil rich regions to go to the Kurdistan region. So why the necessity for any “deal” in the first place? It is only an ongoing saga between Iran and Iraq as Maliki supports the Iranian view as he is puppet of Iranian influence over Iraq. He is once again trying a last desperate move to gain support. He has had 4 years already to work out a compromise and negotiate on this issue so why all of a sudden now on the eve of the first session of parliament does he propose such a deal?
Article 140 is just an issue that causes contention and thus chaos. So it will linger as long as it is used as a political bargaining ship. Also I want to remind everyone that once Maliki is gone this article 140 issue will be clarified very quickly once and for all time since some sanity will be finally realized. So why accept any deal now? It will be one of the items in the “basket” of laws that will be published and moved forward very quickly along with the long awaited revaluation process. Good try Maliki !
So today we stand on the eve of the first session of parliament tomorrow Tuesday June 24th. This was moved up from June 30th and announced late last week. I explained why I thought this was so important in my last news letter dated 6/20.
I am saying once again this should be a pivotal week. I said (should) since I expect Maliki to find a way to sabotage the process.
Will they still hold the session or will Maliki find a way to sidetrack it? Something to be watchful for.
What we are hopeful for:
1) a fully seated parliament (including the 4 members not previously ratified)- first day. If these 4 members are not included it could cause a skew in the voting and dislodge any real progress. It is my belief these members are being withheld intentionally for this very purpose by Maliki since he has influenced the judiciary to do so. You see it is always the very simple things that he does to cause the chaos that only later shows up. Watch how this causes a mess in the voting process !
2) a new speaker of the parliament – first day
3) the voting and seating of the new Iraq President- first day
4) the voting and seating of the new Iraq Prime Minister – by end of week
5) ratifying and seating all the new ministers – by end of week
To get all this done by end of week in a very tall order. But they can do it if all goes well in the process.
Remember too that dictators like Maliki do not want a fair and honest government since they can not operate and get away with their corruption and crimes against humanity in this kind of environment. The only real hope for the Iraq is for the “good guys” to aggressively push forward and get the new government seated as quickly as possible. They know it and are attempting to do it.
I still firmly believe that we will not see any revaluation of the IQD unless Iraq has a stable and functional government and thus has a political environment that it can advance in and thrive in.
This is the definition of “stable” and “functional” that we are looking for.