5-25-2012 Austin-Powers-For-PM: We know that Iraq has a HUGE amount of government workers, and they get paid on the 1st Thursday of the month, which at this point would be June 7th. We know they get paid in Dinar.
Many of them then convert those Dinar's into dollars. Those dinars get circulated and many of them find their way back to the bank, which then gets turned into the CBI for Dollars at the auctions.
That tells me that the high point of dinar circulation in the economy is usually the 1st week of the month, and the lowest is the last week, especially the last few days of the month.
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What this tells me is that Shabibi would want to RV as close to the very end of the month as possible in order to minimize the amount of 3 zero notes on the streets being cashed in.
There is NO WAY you issue paychecks in dinars, and then RV shortly after that. It would cost the CBI dearly if he did that.
We clearly see that the GOI loggerhead that has been around since the initial Erbil signing back in October 2010 is coming to a head. It seems like, for some reason, they have gotten VERY serious about resolving this whole mess. Some sort of pressure is making it happen NOW!!
Now we know that Chapter 7 is scheduled to be discussed and potentially lifted on June 15th. There has always been a theory (although it's never been proven in black and white) that the U.N. would not lift Chapter 7 without an RV.
We also know that the Tariffs are scheduled to start July 1st (sorry too much evidence shows it has been punted until then) and there needs to be a period for exporters to get adjusted with the new rate before the tariffs kick in.
So, what this is telling me is that next week (29th, 30th, 31st) is THE optimum time to see this RV happen. If I'm totally wrong, then I guess I'm in good company with every guru out there.