BACKDOC: HEY FAMILY! HEY FRANK! HEY DELTA! WOW!
LETS' ROCK AND ROLL ON SOME ACTIONS TONIGHT SHALL WE?
YOU SEE IT TIME FOR THE MARKET TO MAKE A DECISION ABOUT ITS VALUE!
WITH VIRTUALLY NO GROWTH IN WORLD MARKETS FINDING VALUE IS NOW A SERIOUS PROBLEM!
THE WAY THAT STOCKS ARE VALUED BASED ON EARNINGS HAS TO BE RECONSIDERED! WITH GLOBAL MARKETS SHOWING A DEFLATIONARY DEATH SPIRAL, VALUE HAS TO BE MEASURED DIFFERENTLY! HEE HEE
CHINA TRIED TO STOP THE GREAT REPRICING BY PUTTING SELLING RESTRICTIONS ON THEIR STOCKS WHICH ONLY MADE THE PROBLEM WORSE!
THIS CREATES DISTRUST IN MARKETS AND ELIMINATES A FAIR GAME! WELL, IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WOKE UP TO THAT FACT AND WILL NOW LET THE GLOBAL REALITY VALUE BE DISCOVERED!
SOME FOLKS HAVE NO IDEA WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT TO YOUR DINAR INVESTMENT BUT IT HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH IT!
WHAT IS IRAQS NUMBER 1 PRODUCT? RIGHT! THEIR CURRENCY!
BEFORE VALUE CAN HAVE REALITY THERE NEEDS TO BE A GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL STANDARD OF VALUE FOR SOMETHING! THAT CONCEPT WOULD BE EASY IF EVERYTHING WAS 100% GOLD BACKED BUT THATS NOT THE WAY IT IS!
THERE IS ONLY 25% GOLD BACKING PER DINAR! THIS IS HUGE COMPARED TO THE CURRENT MONOPOLY MONEY WE CURRENTLY USE BUT THE FACT REMAINS A BASIC CONCEPT OF VALUE NEEDS TO BE DISCOVERED!
IN PART, THE TOP RESERVE CURRENCY IN THE WORLD HELPS THAT REALITY TO BE DISCOVERED BUT WITH THE DOLLAR UNDER DE-DOLLARIZATION THAT NEW VALUE MAY BE MORE CHALLENGING TO DISCOVER!
SORRY IF I BORED YOU BUT WHAT IS ABOUT TO OCCUR IN THESE MARKETS ARE MAJORLY SIGNIFICANT! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Why this could be a pivotal week for markets
The week ahead is stacked with events that could prove pivotal for markets, including a flurry of Fed speakers and the G-20 ministers meeting in China.
There's also a batch of U.S. economic reports, including durable goods and trade, and some big retail earnings, including Home Depot, Target and Lowe's. There should also be some important headlines for the oil market when Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi speaks at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston on Tuesday, and OPEC General Secretary Abdalla Salem El-Badri speaks Monday.
The stock market closed out the past week on a mixed note, with the S&P 500 falling slightly to 1,917 on Friday, but up 2.9 percent for the week, its best weekly performance since November. The Dow dropped 21 points on Friday to 16,391, but was up 2.6 percent for the week, while the Nasdaq rose 16 to 4,504 for a gain of 3.8 percent for the week.
Bulls took heart in the fact that stocks held above recent lows, but some traders were hoping to see the S&P 500 push successfully through the technically important 1,950 level. Traders noted that China was not the negative for markets in the past week that it has been, and oil did not become a drag for stocks until late in the week.
West Texas Intermediate crude for March fell 3.7 percent Friday to $29.64 per barrel, ahead of Monday's contract expiration, but it gained 0.7 percent for the week. The April contract was trading at close to $32 per barrel. Traders see $30 as an important level to hold, and staying above that would be considered a positive for stocks.
Markets are already keyed up ahead of the G-20 finance ministers meeting in Shanghai on Thursday and Friday, where there is some optimism that China and others could discuss stimulus to help the global economy. Other topics are expected to include Fed and other central banks' policy and oil prices.
Read More Comparing the world's central bank interest rates
"The hope is there's more and more discussion about infrastructure spending and discussion about coordinated policy globally," said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock." I think there was more intensity around that."
The management of China's currency is also expected to be a topic of discussion, after the Asian nation first allowed the yuan to fall rapidly during the summer and subsequently raised concerns about further devaluation.
"The difference between this week and two weeks ago is China. This week has been pretty stable. The Chinese currency has been relatively stable. Much less talk about capital flight," said Rieder.
Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, said his expectations for the G-20 are low, but that he would also be watching for follow-up in Europe after U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron secured an EU renegotiation package late Friday that he said is enough to recommend that Britain remain a part of the European Union.
"We wouldn't expect too much of the G-20. I'm pleased with how China has come back. They're saying the right stuff and the market's been pretty calm. We are in a nice, uneasy calm," he said.
Thin said a new focus for markets may now be the surprise pickup in some U.S. economic indicators, including that inflation rose more than expected in the core CPI. Industrial production was also stronger than expected, as were retail sales and the January employment report.
"People are saying no tightening. But maybe the next shoe to drop is people are going to say the U.S. is doing well and the Fed is going to start tightening," he said.
That could make the words of the more than half-dozen Fed speakers key in the week ahead. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks Tuesday evening, and he has recently said the central bank remains on its rate-hiking path but that it is data dependent. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks Wednesday, and he has surprised markets with comments that the central bank maybe should hold off.
Read MoreThis is the S&P level traders are talking about now
Rieder said the Fed may in fact be forced to hold off, but because of developments outside the U.S.
"I thought the Fed should have gone a while ago, and I think it's going to be very difficult, where the global economy is slowing. I think it's hard for the Fed to tighten in that environment," Rieder said.
The improving data, if they continue, may also reduce some of the talk about a U.S. recession. JPMorgan said its model showed recession risks ticked down to 31 percent from 32 percent in the past week.
Daniel Suzuki, Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity strategist, said improving U.S. data could be a catalyst for a rally if they continue. BofA cut its 2016 expectation for the S&P 500 to 2,000 from 2,200 last week.
"In our view the market started to price in a global recession and our estimate at the market low was it was pricing in a recession probability of 50 percent. Some of that's been priced out, and we're probably pricing in 30 to 35 percent," said Suzuki. He said a negative, however, has been a tightening of credit conditions, and high-yield debt could continue to struggle.
Suzuki said durable goods could be important in the week ahead. "I think an improvement in the orders would give some support to the idea that you're seeing improving trends within the manufacturing economy ... I think the more (positive) indicators you get, the more the market will price out a recession and the trend continues," he said, adding there are still issues. "Particularly with ISM under 50, there's still reason for concern."
Read MoreEl-Erian: I expect volatility to return in weeks ahead
Suzuki said a positive sign for the rally was the large equity outflows in the past several months, but a negative is that the earnings estimates trend continues to be for reduced expectations.
Suzuki said one positive sign may be coming from the behavior of small caps, which he said are trading in line with large caps for the first time since 2003.
"Small-cap underperformance peaked in 2011 and during that time period they underperformed by 30 percentage points," he said, noting they are now trading in line on a forward price to earnings basis. He said the historical average premium of small caps relative to large caps was 5 percent since 2011.
"Now that premium is zero. They went from a premium of 27 percent or more in 2011. Now they're both at 15.8 percent. At the record difference, small caps were trading at 17.7 percent times while large caps were trading at less than 14 times," he said.
What to Watch
Earnings: Fitbit, Motorola Solutions, BHP Billiton, Dean Foods, Anglogold Ashanti, Alliant Energy
9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
3 p.m. OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri speaks at CERAWeek
Earnings: Home Depot, Macy's, Norwegian Cruise Line, Scripps Networks, Caesars Entertainment, First Solar, Dreamworks Animation, Toll Brothers, Cracker Barrel, Bank of Montreal, Wolverine Worldwide, Etsy, Healthsouth, Papa John's
8:30 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
8:50 a.m. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan
9 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices
9:50 a.m. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi speaks at CERAWeek
10 a.m. Existing home sales; consumer confidence
1 p.m. $26 billion two-year note auction
8:30 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer
Earnings: Lowe's, Target, TJX, Sunoco Logistics, LaQuinta, Royal Bank of Canada, Steve Madden, Eaton Vance, Chemours, Imax, Salesforce.com, L Brands, HP, Newfield Exploration, Royal Bank of Canada
8 a.m. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
10 a.m. New home sales
1 p.m. $34 billion five-year notes
7 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
G-20 finance ministers meet in Shanghai
Earnings: A-B InBev, Axa, Domino's Pizza, Best Buy, Campbell Soup, Kohl's, AMCNetworks, Fortress Investments, Chico's FAS, SeaWorld, Sears Holdings, Apache,Windstream, Pinnacle Foods, Ensco, Seadrill, Baidu, Weight Watchers, KraftHeinz, Intuit, Splunk, Herbalife, Noodles and Co, Monster Beverage, Gap
8:15 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart
8:30 a.m. Initial claims; durable goods
9 a.m. FHFA home prices
12 p.m. San Francisco Fed President John Williams
1 p.m. $28 billion seven-year notes
G-20 meets in Shanghai
Earnings: J.C. Penney, Foot Locker, Sotheby's, Sempra Energy, AmericanTower, Centerpoint, Liberty Media, Telefonica, Rowan Cos
8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q4 (second reading); international trade
10 a.m. Personal income; consumer sentiment
Earnings: Berkshire Hathaway
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/19/why-this ... rkets.html
BACKDOC: FAMILY, YESTERDAY I TOLD YOU TO WATCH IRAN AND CHINA! THIS IS A GAME CHANGER TONIGHT FOLKS!
REMOVING THE RESTRICTION OF SALES AND CIRCUIT BREAKER FROM CHINESE STOCKS IS NOW GOING TO TAKE US TO THE "NEW GLOBAL REALITY VALUE" I'VE BEEN TRYING TO TEACH YOU ABOUT!
THIS IS HUGE FOLKS!
LOOK FOR A MAJOR EVENT IN MARKETS!
THIS WILL BECOME A MAJOR NEWS DISTRACTION AWAY FROM ANYTHING THE IMF WANTS TO DO NOW!
LOOK OUT BELOW! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk Backdoc Alert
China's top securities regulator stepping down
SHANGHAI-- China has removed Xiao Gang, the head of its securities regulator, from his post, and appointed Liu Shiyu to take on the role, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Saturday.
Liu, who had been chairman of the Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (AgBank) and a former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, will succeed Xiao as chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).
The move caps a turbulent period for China's financial markets, which fell sharply last summer, leading to close scrutiny of the CSRC and Xiao's handling of the crisis.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses rose steeply until mid-June of last year and then crashed, losing as much as 40 percent of their value before top leadership intervened.
Reuters reported in January that Xiao, 57, had offered to resign following the sudden withdrawal of a "circuit-breaker" mechanism launched at the start of this year.
That mechanism had been intended to limit any market sell-off, but many investors blamed it for contributing to a series of falls in the first days of trading this year, which contributed to global market jitters.
Liu, 54, has spent most of his career at China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, rising to the position of vice governor and holding that post from 2006 until he left in late 2014 to head up AgBank.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/19/chinas-t ... -down.html
BACKDOC: AS THIS YEAR PROGRESSES WITH MORE AND MORE DEFLATION THE PRESSURE WILL MOUNT AS TO WHERE NEW CAPITAL WILL COME FROM TO ISSUE NEW SECURITIZED LOANS?
AS THE INVESTMENT MONEY POOL SHRINKS WHILE GLOBAL GROWTH DROPS WITH MORE AND MORE DEFAULTS ON THE RISE, A SOLUTION TO THESE PROBLEMS MAY BE THE GCR!
THE MAIN POINT FOR US IS BEING SURE WE STAY SECURITIZED!
DON'T LEAVE SECURITIZED FOR UNSECURITIZED! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
Online lenders see cash crunch
The online lending industry has tougher hurdles to clear in 2016, with a tighter ABS market and other capital constraints.
A cash crunch is impeding the online lending industry's growth as the cost of borrowing grows, funds become increasingly scarce and ratings agencies maintain a cautious outlook toward the space.
Next, start-ups that have grown into unicorns originating billions of dollars' worth of loans may find themselves doing less lending or, conversely, putting more of their loans onto their own books.
The asset-backed securities market is slowing and issued a meager $40 billion in January — the lowest total since at least 2012, according to Dealogic data — and generated a paltry $10 billion in ABS loans in February. In terms of deal volume, ABS deals in 2016 have also dropped to lows the market has not seen for years.
"We want to tap into the ABS market," said Suk Shah, CFO of lender Avant. "We think the market will be there for our product, it's just a matter of what cost."
Shah said he's expecting an increase in the cost of capital for online lenders. But the start-up, which hit a valuation of $2 billion in late 2015, has other avenues it can use to fund operations. Avant has access to more than $1 billion in existing debt financing and operates a high-net worth lending platform for clients looking to take bigger blocks of peer-to-peer loans. So it's not dependent on ABS deals to issue loans.
But some online lenders are facing skeptical analysts.
Loans originated by online lender Prosper last year were put on watch for a possible downgrade by Moody's earlier this month, citing the likelihood of greater losses than was initially anticipated by the ratings agency.
"The reviews for downgrade of the Class C Notes were prompted by a faster buildup of delinquencies and charge-offs than expected in transactions backed by Prosper-originated loans," Moody's researchers wrote in their Feb. 11 report.
A representative for Prosper said Moody's revision more closely matches projections that had been set by the lending originator's underwriting.
The online lending industry began as the peer-to-peer lending business, although the peers (who, three or more years ago, often consisted of a group of individuals managing small loan portfolios on a personal basis) were increasingly challenged by hedge funds eager to score single-digit yield on consumer paper widely perceived as low risk.
Credit data company TransUnion projected in a survey released earlier this year that the 60-day-plus secured loan delinquency rate will rise to 3.72 percent by the end of this year. This coincides with an expected increase of about 7 percent in the average secured loan balance per consumer, comparing 2014 numbers to projected numbers for this year, TransUnion research said.
A silver lining is the industry's growth attracting bigger investors over the last several years.
Lending Club CEO Renaud Laplanche said on the company's earnings call this month that pension funds, insurers and other asset managers contributed 21 percent of more than $8 billion that was invested through his company's platform in 2015. And, he says, thanks to online lenders building up a longer track record institutional buyers can trust, he expects that source of capital to grow.
"When they get in, they do so at large numbers," he said.
Both Lending Club and On Deck Capital, an online lender focusing on small businesses, have seen stocks struggle after their respective IPOs; as of midday trading on Friday the shares of each were down more than 18 percent on the year. On Deck Capital entered into a partnership with JPMorgan Chase late last year to develop an origination platform with the help of the bank.
Virtually all the companies in the online lending arena emerged in the wake of the financial crisis, and haven't yet had to sail with proverbial economic headwinds in their faces.
"We built our business thinking about what would happen in a recession," Shah said.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/19/online-l ... runch.html
BACKDOC: THIS GUY IS THE MAIN KEYNOTE SPEAKER ON TEACHING THE SECURITIZATION PROCESS TO THE BIG COMPANIES!
HE WAS ALSO THE CO CEO OF PIMCO BONDS FUNDS!!
DO YOU WANT TO GUESS WHY HE BAILED ON THE BOND MARKET OVER A YEAR AGO? HEE HEE
THIS GUY IS BRILLIANT! DOC IMO
Thunderhawk: Backdoc Alert
El-Erian: 'Perfect storm' for volatility not over
A strong week for markets will not quash the volatility seen this year, Mohamed El-Erian contended Friday.
"As much as I would like to say the volatility is behind us, I expect that the volatility will return in the weeks ahead," Allianz's chief economic advisor told CNBC's "Closing Bell."
The S&P 500 has fallen more than 6 percent this year, while the CBOE Volatility Index has climbed nearly 13 percent. However, stocks ended Friday with their best week of the year, as major U.S. averages rose more than 2.5 percent each.
But El-Erian believes the factors that created a "perfect storm" this year have not yet dissipated, making more volatility possible. He cited factors like weakness in the global economy, concerns about the effectiveness of central banks and a lack of so-called patient, long-term capital.
Speculation has surrounded whether global developments and market weakness could force the Federal Reserve to slow its interest rate-hiking path. So far, the U.S. central bank has signaled it will still tighten slowly, though top policymakers have acknowledged they are watching trends abroad.
On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said labor market and income data "suggest that underlying U.S. economic fundamentals remain sound." El-Erian said the economy "is doing relatively well, not great."
"If the Fed was making the decision based on the U.S. as a stand-alone, it would continue to normalize very carefully and very slowly," El-Erian said.
He contended that the Fed "still seems inclined to hike this year" as long as financial trends around the world do not lead to "contamination" in the U.S.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/19/el-erian ... ahead.html
Mountainman: WELL,WELL,WELL,.....SO WHY???......Do you Think PAKISTAN decided to "LIFT" Sanctions On IRAN at this POINT in TIME ???.........
Could it Be they just don't WANT to Miss Out on The "GRAVY TRAIN".......Oh Yes .......Wouldn't "THAT" be a Shame!!!!!!!! Blessings,Mountainman
Thunderhawk: Pakistan lifts sanctions against Iran
Pakistan has decided to lift sanctions against Iran and has devised a strategy to promote trade ties with the oil rich country, a ministerial meeting decided on Friday.
According to a notification issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islamabad will revive all economic and commercial relations with Tehran, including the areas of trade, investment, technology, banking, finance, energy, Pakistani media reported today.
All the previous notifications giving effect to sanctions imposed on Iran by UN Security Council stand repealed with the issuance of this new notification by the foreign ministry, in keeping with the Security Council resolution 2231.
The meeting chaired by Minister of Finance Ishaq Dar ruled that Pakistan had welcomed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed between Iran and world powers and it appreciates the steps taken by Iran for the implementation of the JCPOA.
With the lifting of restrictions, economic and trade relations between the two neighborly countries will receive a new boost.
It will enable the two countries to fully reinvigorate various bilateral and multilateral arrangements for promoting investments and cooperation in across all sectors including banking, finance, industry and energy.
Link to Part 2:
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