Bgg Roundtable 9/14/15 Part 1 of 2
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_firefly_: Alrighty, found this VERY interesting. It is from CNN dated today
_firefly_: Iraq plans bond offering for brave investors
_firefly_: Looking to spice up your portfolio? Try investing in Iraq.
_firefly_: The oil rich country is hoping to borrow $6 billion from international investors, and could sell the first slice of bonds worth $2 billion as early as this week. It has been trying to drum up investor interest over the past few days. If the bond offering is successful, it will be the nation's first debt offering since 2006.
But investing in these bonds is only for those with nerves of steel. The country is wracked by political instability, a large swath of its territory is now controlled by ISIS, and oil prices have collapsed.
Iraq's economy is almost entirely dependent on oil exports and the slump in prices has wreaked havoc on its finances.
BGG _firefly_: of course, "brave investors"...
_firefly_: Note: So all those people telling us the bonds went on sale and are a failure .... well lol
BGG _firefly_: this only further points out exactly what I have been saying (great find - BTW)
_firefly_: Related: Oil could hit $20Unsurprisingly, investors who are willing to take the risk will expect high returns. According to boutique investment bank Exotix Partners, the yield on Iraq's existing bonds -- maturing in 2028 -- could rise to 12.5% as prices continue to slide. The country's debt is rated as junk by both Standard & Poor's and Fitch.
And their analysis of the situation is grim. "Political risk and insecurity are among the highest faced by any sovereign rated by Fitch," wrote analysts at the ratings agency. They estimate Iraq's budget deficit will exceed 10% this year due to weak oil prices, the cost of war and civil conflict.
BGG _firefly_: they may well sell SOME bonds... BUT - they need some real action to stir investor confidence and get these things moving...
_firefly_: Unsurprisingly, investors who are willing to take the risk will expect high returns.
_firefly_: Related: Iraq is pumping more oil than ever But if you expect the situation has already hit rock bottom and oil prices will soon rise, this may be a bet worth taking. "Iraq benefits from massive oil reserves and high oil exports.
Projected large increases in oil production will, in our view, support economic growth and help alleviate fiscal and external pressures over the medium term," noted Standard & Poor's analysts. Iraqi representatives will be in Boston and Los Angeles this week to present their investment case. They were in London last week.
_firefly_: Iraqi representatives will be in Boston and Los Angeles this week to present their investment case. They were in London last week.
_firefly_: Related: Saudi Arabia is having to borrow money--CNN's Schams Elwazer contributed to this report. CNNMoney (London) September 14, 2015: 11:00 AM ET _firefly_: http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/14/inve...sis/index.html
BGG _firefly_: personally - the political situation has "hit rock bottom" some time ago...
BGG _firefly_: and..
BGG _firefly_: is clearly on the "uptick"... IMHO
CanTWaitwoRV _firefly_: wow it finally comes out on the Saudi's
BGG _firefly_: Thanks for that - further bolsters our commentary for some time now... Thanks so much.
_firefly_: Oh yeah, certainly my thoughts as well
_firefly_ BGG: Very welcome. It's important to get facts rather than internet hocus pocus and false rumors
_firefly_ BGG: As we can see
_firefly_ BGG: THE BONDS HAVE NOT GONE LIVE YET !!!!!!!
CanTWaitwoRV _firefly_: good luck on going live too successfully
BGG: Listen folks - I have been saying this for a while now... this Bloomberg article and this one don't scare me - in fact, it just solidifies what I have been thinking - bonds or no bonds - they need monetary reform ASAP
BGG: they have to deal with the corruption - PERIOD.
_firefly_ BGG: exactly !!!!!!!!!
diagyAAAE: BGG all or nothing
diane1: CAN THEY DO BOTH AT THE SAME TIME?
BGG diane1: YES
diagyAAAE: All these fine details mean nothing when it comes to Iraq falling off the face of the earth so to speak
BGG: Maliki and ALAK (who - BTW was the one qouted in the Doomberg article today) can steal 6 billion in a month or less...
CanTWaitwoRV: so much attention put on garbage bonds lol
BGG: if they don't handle them - this bond offering will matter very little.
jtank: meaning alaq and M
_firefly_ BGG: IMO this event won't happen until AFTER the fact
BGG CanTWaitwoRV: Do you have an article for us today??
ddboys1626 _firefly_: event = RV
mfree05: Speaking of the Maliki & Alak . I was always of the opinion that one of the main possible reasons that Maliki put Keywords in as Gov was so that he could alter or destroy incriminating records from inside the CBI. If so, he would have had a years head start on the project. Just speculating of course.
BGG mfree05: I think you are onto something there...
jtank: mfrees right no trail
CanTWaitwoRV: Iraq Warns Oil Companies of Spending Cuts Oil ministry budget squeezed by low prices, war http://www.wsj.com/articles/iraq-war...uts-1442223305
BGG: that is pretty mainstream there...
CanTWaitwoRV: Iraq plans to export a new all-time record of 3.68m bpd of oil in October from Basra. Could hit 3.8m bpd by year end http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...11K2UR20150914 …
BGG: but interestingly - these are ALL THE VERY ISSUES talked about last September and main reasons some kind of "emergency currency move" was being discussed...
CanTWaitwoRV BGG: true good recall
_firefly_ BGG: I'm still putting 2 and 2 together from last weeks news WINK, Very telling
BGG: I think (IMHO) once Maliki is fully marginalized - an "emergency currency move" (up - not down like knuckle head talked about) become a very real possiblity. Abadi needs the money to keep after ISIS...
diagyAAAE: IMO ISIS is the forefront Jihad behind spreading Islam throughout the whole world....
wilson6060: BGG do you think the WB will really blacklist Iraq if they do not get everything done by the 1st...or is that just a loud threat
BGG wilson6060: I think they would - but I also think Iraq will get the AML Law passed (or close) before then... obviously, it's not just the Law they want - they want it enforced.
BGG wilson6060: NO MONEY LAUNDERING.
_firefly_ BGG: IMPLEMENTATION
BGG wilson6060: so the point is - it's not just the Law - it's Maliki they want (and everyone else it seems)...
Dr Dave: with the AML...do not they have to vote and wait 2 weeks to get it into the gazette..beyond the Oct 1 deadline
BGG Dr Dave: I don't recall a 2 week waiting period.
_firefly_ BGG: Never heard of that one either
BGG Dr Dave: and I suspect as long as the vote is taken - (or some other serious effort) they will be fine.
Holly1: Loans are interested in demanding protection from the corrupt and the extension of the repayment period 09/14/2015 http://www.dananernews.com/News_Details.php?ID=6149
Deputy for national calls Abadi to show the courage to hold accountable spoilers 01:26: 09/14/2015
Holly1: Thats all right now Mr. BGG
BGG Holly1: Thanks so much - I was breezing thru that last one - BUT...
BGG Holly1: it seems the watch word is...
BGG Holly1: corruption, corruption, corruption...
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