Posted on May 21, 2012 by BGG
Hello Updaters!! What a great day!! The *** Flashback *** is more of a current commentary, the *** Rumors *** section has a few important points and there is lots of news to look at in the *** Current News *** section.
*** Chat Comments *** is well stocked again. I hope you like today’s Blog – BGG
*** Flashback ***
UPDATE: The following is part of a narrative I wrote back on the 9th – it is still entirely holds true (amazing)!!
I made the prediction during our call last Tuesday (5/8?) that when this story is written – the recent meeting of the “Erbil 5″ will either be known as “The Meeting” – or at worst, the precursor to “The Meeting” everyone has been looking for. How can I say this?? Easy. All the major players met, they discussed it, they have an agenda laid out, they gave Maliki a 15-day ultimatum. Simple. They didn’t give him 15 days to have another meeting, 15 days to think about it or 15 days to set the “agenda” for another meeting. They gave him 15 days to GET IT DONE!!
Maliki went to Kirkuk for a big “meeting” with local leaders. He took a battery of artillery and helicopters with him. This was all a “show of force” to Erbil. A vague threat that if they truly move against him – he’ll invade Kirkuk (one of the highly contested and sought after regions). He also “ordered” the Peshmerga (the Kurdish Army) out of Kirkuk (not that they will listen).
Read More Link on Right
Since - then, the Iraqi Regular Army has made deals with the Peshmerga to not get into a “conflict” while this is playing out. Which tells me they can’t stand Maliki and have no intention of saving his butt once the voting starts.
How does this affect the timing of an RV – like I have been saying…no matter what, it speeds things up. Either Maliki buckles under the “heat” and does everything he’s held off prior to a “Meeting” and it goes quickly for us, or he goes right to the bitter end and tries to win on the floor of the Parliament (which is a terrible idea). If he goes to the Parliament – I don’t see them “holding things up” for any reason. A vote will happen very soon after the end of the deadline. So either way – it helps matters for us. As opposed to be stuck with the “status quo” we have been for months. I also think this business in Kirkuk only hastens his demise – no one gets the “humor” and the goons surrounding him will be very lucky if they aren’t up on charges once Maliki is gone.
I cannot see Maliki “winning” in Parliament. He’ll be soooo lucky if he gets 40 votes.
Allawi is asking for the National Alliance to go ahead and pick their new “interim” PM (NOW). Hakim (leader of the IISC) and Al-Jaafari had a meeting yesterday that may have been “pivotal” for us. The way I read this meeting between Hakim and Jaafari…Hakim is kind of a “swing vote” in the NA, Jaafari is a likely pick for “interim” PM, they were working out some last minute details. Jaafari was getting the final “blessing” from the IISC religious leader to be the next PM out of the National Alliance. JMHO – we’ll wait and see
P.S. Back to the timing – if they need to vote, it won’t matter if Parliament is taking a vacation on the Moon, Najafi will call them in for an emergency session. It will happen. So them being on “break” for a month is not an issue.
All perfectly “on target” scenarios still…
*** Current News ***
Source: Meeting of Najaf, however, presented two letters to the National Alliance Chalabi and Talabani to withdraw confidence from the Maliki
A source familiar with the meeting of leaders and representatives of political blocs, which was held in the province of Najaf, at the invitation of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, resulted in two letters sent to the National Alliance and President Jalal Talabani.
The source told all of Iraq [where] “The meeting resulted in Najaf to the first two letters of the National Alliance to find a replacement for Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in a week and other personal nomination for the post of prime minister.”
“It was also provided a letter to President Jalal Talabani, urging him to withdraw confidence from the al-Maliki,” adding that “the Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmed Chalabi, who attended the meeting had been assigned to deliver the letters to the National Alliance and Talabani.”
Well here’s the big news from yesterday!! They met, decided and sent letters to prove it!! Maliki is done – stick a fork in him.
Rule of law, warns of a “popular revolution angry” If there is no confidence on Maliki
BAGHDAD / Knights of hope
MP warned a coalition of law Ibrahim Rikabi that the withdrawal of confidence in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will ignite a “popular revolution angry.” Rikabi said that the orientations of the meeting the leaders of the five-far from the national interest and enter the country and in the maze of administrative chaos. He added that the subject is the stapes is not a political coups or conspiracies, but is having problems between the political parties and not causing these problems are the only person al-Maliki, but all political leaders. He explained that the current government of national partnership contain all the participants in the meeting and the meeting of the five-Najaf because their ministers in the government and participants engaged in their highest degree of democracy and make the decisions.
I hate to break the news to the SLC – Iran has already withdrawn their support and the US and the IISC and the IS and most of the NA and the KA and, and, and….
AND the only revolution getting ready to break out is if they don’t get on with removing this guy!!
House denies receiving a letter from al-Maliki to withdraw no-confidence in al-Mutlaq
BAGHDAD / Lao-Tamimi
نفى مقرر مجلس النواب العراقي استلام المجلس كتابا من رئيس الوزراء نوري المالكي لسحب طلب حجب الثقة عن نائبه لشؤون الخدمات صالح المطلك. Denied the decision of the Iraqi Council of Representatives of the Council received a letter from Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s request to withdraw no-confidence in his deputy for Services Affairs Saleh al-Mutlaq.
وقال مقرر المجلس محمد الخالدي ، اليوم الاثنين، لوكالة (أور) إن “مجلس النواب لم يتسلم اي كتاب من رئيس الوزراء يتضمن سحب طلبه السابق بحجب الثقة عن نائبه لشؤون الخدمات صالح المطلك”. Council decision and said Muhammad Al-Khalidi, on Monday, told (Orr) that “the House of Representatives has not received any letter from the Prime Minister to withdraw his request includes the no-confidence for former Vice President for Services Affairs Saleh al-Mutlaq.”
So it appears Maliki was lying about sending the request to Parliament to “take-back” his request to have Al-Mutlag “sacked”. I guess the only “no confidence” votes he recognizes are the ones he initiates!! Surprise, surprise…
Damalouji: Today’s meeting in Najaf achieved big, decisive results
Baghdad (NINA) – Official spokesperson for Iraqiya slate, Maysoon al-Damalouji, announced that the meeting held today in Najaf has achieved big and decisive results. Damalouji told NINA that, “The five leaders who took part in today’s meeting have signed two documents that will be safety valves to the Iraqi people.” She did not specify the contents of their contents, adding, “The next two days will witness more discussion to get out of current political crisis.” On Thursday afternoon a meeting held in Najaf on the invitation of Muqtada al-Sadr, attended by leaders of political blocs discussing a mechanism to get Iraq out of its current political crisis. / End.
There will be some solutions made public around the time-frame she is pointing to. Bank on it.
Al-Bayati (Iraq doves) do not support the withdrawal of confidence from the Maliki
Baghdad / Orr News
قال عباس البياتي؛ القيادي في ائتلاف دولة القانون إن “هناك أطرافا داخل القائمة العراقية لن تدعم عملية سحب الثقة، وهم أكثر من 50 عضوا”. Abbas al-Bayati; leader of the coalition of state law that “there are parties within the Iraqi List will not support the process of withdrawal of confidence, and they are more than 50 members.” وتابع “نحن واثقون من أنهم لن يسحبوا الثقة عن الحكومة وستواصل عملها”. “We are confident that they will not withdraw confidence from the government will continue its work.”
وأبدى البياتي اعتقاده بأن “مسألة سحب الثقة عن الحكومة أصبحت حديثا عن الماضي، ولم تعد حديثا عن المستقبل، والمستقبل هو للاصلاح السياسي والحوار والاجتماع الوطني”. Bayati expressed his belief that “the question of withdrawal of confidence from the government became the talk of the past, no longer talk of the future and the future is to reform the political dialogue and national meeting.” وتابع “مسألة سحب الثقة أمر لم يعد يشغل بال التحالف ولا الكتل الاخرى، ولاسيما أن جميع الحسابات البرلمانية والسياسية تشير الى صعوبة أن تتمكن الأطراف من سحب الثقة عن الحكومة الحالية التي تحظى بدعم سياسي من أطراف داخل الكتل السياسية”. “The question of withdrawal of trust is no longer a concern of the coalition nor the other blocs, in particular that all the parliamentary and political calculations indicate the difficulty that the parties can withdraw confidence from the current government which has the support of political parties within the political blocs.”
These guys act like crack heads!! They are in denial and high on the power!! They are about to go through a Parliamentary imposed “detox”!! Ha Ha…
They are dreaming about 50 members of the Al-Iraqiya not voting against Al-Maliki. DREAMING!! This thing is about ready to go badly for these jokers!! Their political party will be dead for the next 20 years.
Zobaie: al-Mutlaq is still insisting that al-Maliki as saying that the dictator can not build a state
..أكــد النائب طلال خضير الزوبعي عن القائمة العراقية إن صالح المطلك
مازال مصرا على قوله بأن المالكي دكتاتور ولا يستطيع بناء دولة وهناك خلل كبير في صناعة القرار ونحن نبحث الآن عن إدارة حقيقية لمؤسسات البلاد والتوازن وإيقاف الظلم الذي طال جميع المناطق من خلال المخبر السري الذي أصبح سيف مسلط على رقاب الشعب العراقي . MP Talal Khudair Zobaie the Iraqi List, said Saleh al-Mutlaq is still insisting on saying that al-Maliki a dictator can not build a state and there is great imbalance in decision making and we are looking now for the management of real institutions of the country and the balance and stop the injustice of the long-all regions of the confidential informant who became the sword hanging over the necks of the Iraqi people.
وقال الزوبيعي في تصريح لوكالة الصحافة المستقلة (إيبا) اليوم الاثنين انه علينا الوقوف بحزم تجاه تلك الخروقات اللا إنسانية وأن نقف وقفة وطنية تجاه ما يحدث من تمادي وتسلط وتفرد في السلطة تجاه الشعب وهناك إجماع من معظم الكتل على تغيير المالكي بشخصية ثانية قادرة على بناء الدولة . He said Alzoubiaa told the independent press (Iba) said Monday that we stand firmly against such violations inhuman and stand-stop national about what is happening from the persistence and shed and uniqueness in power to the people and there is a consensus from most of the blocks on the change-Maliki character again capable of building .
Sounds like Al-Mutlag is going to be back to work – but he’s not backing off his statements about Maliki being a dictator. Excellent. If Mutlag is going back to work Maliki is gone!! Another quickie point – Mutlag is also a “dark horse” PM candidate?? It’s possible.
Barzani: We will provide proof of involvement in the smuggling of oil from the region to justice
The head of Iraq’s Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani said he would any person found to be involved in the smuggling of oil from the Kurdistan region to justice, demanding that any party has evidence proving the involvement of the region of smuggling oil abroad for submission, pointed out that he called for the formation of a committee of investigation of the charge of smuggling oil from southern Iraq or territory, but did not receive a reply until now.
Said Massoud Barzani, said in a statement issued today, and received by the agency (UR) a copy of a copy of it, that “al-Maliki and those around him and even other people, accused of the region for the first time the smuggling of oil out”, calling for “any person or party has the evidence on the smuggling of oil from the Kurdistan Region to be presented. ”
This is the first time this idea is being made public, but it sounds as if the “Maliki mob” is being accused of smuggling oil out of Kurdistan (or Kirkuk?). I heard a long while back they knew about this – could be they are just getting around to “playing this card”
*** Rumor Comments *** – May 21st
Rumor – If Iraq doesn’t get off their butts in the next 8 days, then 6 other currencies will RV without them. That’s what I have been told from my banking contacts.
This is a complete joke!! No basis in fact – period.
Rumor – The VND started bouncing around yesterday. Last night around midnight it showed at 43 cents. This morning it was around 13 cents.
Another “whopper” – no such thing. My phone would be ringing off the hook. Total fabrication!!
Rumor – Maliki is out – the vote has already happened and just isn’t public yet.
If it had happened you would have seen it on the Fox ticker – and you might get to soon…very soon.
Rumor – The IQD showed in the banks at $4 and also around $16 but probably won’t stay there. Kuwait is also going to revalue but the IQD will come out higher.
Balderdash!! Where do these guys get this junk?? They make it up faster than we can debunk it!!
Rumor – It appears his opposition may have the 163 votes.
Highly unlikely – I’ve got it figured somewhere north of 190 – maybe more. This will be a landslide. Maliki will be very licky if he gets 40 votes!!
Rumor – It has RV’d and it is in the system just waiting to get “released” live.
Not even close – once the politics are ironed out, we’ll be very close but for now, we’re a few days away.
If you find a crazy rumor or have a question about something you’ve heard – bring it to one of the Mods over at www.dinarupdates.com and we’ll use it here. Thanks!!