Our Dinar Update May 6th
Posted on May 6, 2012 by BGG
Hello Updaters!! More good news today!! The *** Flashback *** and *** Rumors *** will be “light” again, but *** Chat Comments *** section is JAM PACKED with great stuff and there is (again) an extraordinary amount of *** Current News *** to comment on. I hope you like today’s Blog – BGG
*** Flashback ***
Once the political issues are settled and an RV is possible – how is Iraq going to pay for this revaluation of their currency?? Is there enough money for this to happen?? The short answer is – probably not, but they won’t have to – just the private investors and then probably only the private investors that show up at an actual CBI location. That will be a very small number. Iraqi’s won’t be exchanging Dinars for Dollars – why?? If you have one bill worth a dollar and one worth 3.50(ish) – which one would you keep. Right. The ones who have notes just go from being able to buy a sack of groceries to buying a nice car with what they had ”on hand”.
I doubt they would have the “reserves on hand” to be able to redeem all the notes held by everyone – all at once. Even if they were released from CH 7 sanctions and all the wealth of Iraq was returned in total (which is a really big number – no one knows for sure). Immediate redemtion is still just too big a number. However, they do have something everyone in the world wants (and needs) and there has been something of a plan in place for them to be able to “finance” their new economy leveraging the value of their “assets in the ground”.
Iraq is currently one of the top oil producers. They aren’t even close to their true potential and they are ranked about 4th or 5th with only about 10% of their known reserves surveyed – no one know for sure how big they will one day be. Further, the oil in Kurdistan is widely known to be of the highest quality in the world – “it’s good stuff MAAAAANN!!”. It it known as light, sweet crude – right out of the ground. It takes very little in the way of refining (and costs) to make it marketable.
Conversely, Kuwait, Saudia Arabia and the UAE haven’t spent money on refineries or a new oil tankers in many YEARS – why is that? It’s simple, they won’t need them soon – maybe years, but they all know “there’s a bottom to every barrel”. Where does this put Iraq in the “pecking order”? Their oil is the “creme de la creme” and it is beyond abundant. Their potential is dizzying. The one exception being – no one is willing to “finance” a burgeoning economy to a guy who would give Adolf Hitler a run for his money (given enough time).
Here’s how it will work – the various countries have Dinar they hold as “foreign currency reserves”. They have a negotiated rate and schedule (over many years) at which and over which they will redeem the IQD notes in exchange for oil. Notes for Oil = assets in the ground leveraged in exchange for a much higher currency value. For instance – let’s say you go to your local bank to exchange your Dinar for US Dollars. The bank sends those Dinars off to be held as “foreign currency” reserves. Our contract for oil exchange is likely allowing us to buy oil at a “pre-set” per barrel price (ie 32.50 – 36.00 per barrel). Governments can’t wait to “buy” these notes for what we believe to be a “premium” because the second they do – they are worth at least 3 times as much in “foreign currency reserves” (in the asset column). VIOLA’. Everyone wins.
*** Current News ***
Here is my current take. Though the National Conference is scheduled to take place this week, I find it highly unlikely anything happens at the meeting (other than the decision ot remove Maliki). For all the reasons I have already pointed out and a few more. If it happens soon, Maliki will try to get it all done pre-NC Meeting. He’ll steal their “thunder” – no doubt. However, there are several issues I don’t think he can put to bed if he wanted to – he begged Al-Mutlag to come back to work and Mutlag said “ahhhh – not so much”. Maliki got the trial of Al-Hashemi delayed (bank on it) and Al-Hashemi heard what Al- Mutlag did and decided to stay in Turkey till this all blows over.
Those two issues alone are enough to sink Maliki’s chances of getting things wrapped up before the NC meeting – which is why I don’t think he has any hope of meeting the 15 day deadline (remember – the one both Iran and the US are supporting?)…even if he wanted to. This isn’t mentioning the absurd charges against the “autonomous” Election Commission and the numerous “runs” at the CBI. I think he is daring Sadr to “come get some”. He’ll go down swinging – but it won’t take near as long as he thinks!!
Kurdistan .. Jaafari accept a substitute for “al-Maliki”
Palm – freedom newspaper quoted Turkish senior Kurdish official that Jaafari will be the most likely alternative in the event failed to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to respond with the parties at the national meeting next.
“…Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who was prime minister in the Iraqi Transitional Government from 2005 to 2006, can be a substitute for Maliki’s spokesman, describing him as “acceptable to everyone.”In turn, a parliamentary source commented on this statement by saying: it is clear that Barzani is going with him”.
Whoa – how can this be good for Maliki?? I know we ran a piece like this yesterday – but this storyline is gaining steam. As I far as I can see – everyone is leaning towards being OK with Jaafari as a replacement to Al-Maliki. On another interesting note – somewhere today I saw Maliki referred to as the “Outgoing PM Al-Maliki” – Can you believe that??
Informed sources: Agreement provides Erbil to oust Jaafari, Maliki and Sadr rejects
Baghdad / WAP / quoted informed sources said on Saturday that there is a tendency to five powers, which met in Arbil a few days ago that predispose the Prime Minister to the President of the National Alliance, Ibrahim al-Jaafari instead of Nuri al-Maliki, if not carried out the items and signed by them during the period of 15 days .
Again – same story, they all seem to be bent on Jaafari as “the guy” – which leaves Maliki as “not the guy”. Here’s what this would be like over here…the Democratic party decides President Obama is too embattled and they are “pre-picking” their replacement candidate in the event of impeachment and to run for the second term…can you imagine the political damage??
As far as them agreeing on Jaafari, he’s more of a “centrist” and not nearly the “hard-liner” Maliki is – the Kurds are willing patch up any differences they have had with him (Jaafari), Sadr is OK with him, he’s actually still from the NA party (they should go along), and Allawi said they would take ANYBODY but Maliki!!
Sayhood accuse Barzani as being a dictator and authoritarianism clinging to power.
Amarah / NINA /–MP Saadoun Sayhood for the State of Law coalition headed by PM, al-Maliki accused Massoud Barzani President of Kurdistan region of beig a dictator , authoritarian and clinging to power since 22 years ago.
Now here’s one with the pot calling the kettle black! This is the SLC (Maliki’s goons) griping about Barzani. There might be a tiny point here, but as far as Middle Eastern countries go, you could easily pick a much worse country than Kurdistan to live in (if it were a country). They are really out of options once it get to this “I know I am – but what are you”?? Stage of mud-slinging…
Fear of the fall of the Maliki .. leader of the Dawa Party calls for the dissolution of parliament and early elections
He told Sinead Baghdad International: “The best solution to our problem is to solve the political parliament and hold early elections.”
These guys are the master of diversion (or crybaby – which ever)!! You know they are in deep trouble when they threaten to disband the Parliament and hold new elections (before they get voted out)!! How arrogant is that?? There’s virtually no way this can happen. It’s an intimidation tactic – Parliament is the one going to be doing the voting soon (as in “no confidence” vote).
The idea of withdrawal of confidence from the way the Maliki government, legal and constitutional
Prosecutor Jaafar al-Moussawi confirmed: a chest for the item included Jafari to withdraw confidence from Maliki in the absence of implementation of agreements on Arbil (double title – important!!)
Jaafar al-Moussawi said in an interview for “Alsumaria News”, “message cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to the President of the National Alliance, Ibrahim al-Jaafari included item no confidence the government of Nouri al-Maliki in the event of failure to fulfill the agreement Erbil,” asserting that “a coalition of state law during the meeting of the Coalition rejected this approach. ”
Of course the State of Law is “rejecting” this…they’re in convulsions for Heaven’s sakes!! However, this article is saying “all day long” – a legal expert is giving his take on the withdrawl of confidence against Maliki. Maliki’s goons have already started in on the “it’s not constitutional” mantra. His cronies are starting to get active giving long “jibberish” routines in the media about how this can’t happen or can’t be done or isn’t legal. Well boys – it is….So – hang on!!
Sadr criticized al-Maliki: Shiism became a solo in the Iraqi arena that subjects it to the risk of political isolation or risk dictatorial exclusivity
BAGHDAD – “squares of liberation”
“…another escalation of the rhetoric against Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, described the leader of the Sadr movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, Iraqi Prime Minister (as) Btaúfa who works on the common country”.
Sadr – leader of one of the two main big factions in Maliki’s own National Alliance is turning up the heat on Maliki one more time. Sadr may not ultimately withdraw his support from the NA – but he sure is busy scaring the “tar” right out of everyone!!
Constitutional obstacles in front of the mandate of Prime Minister
BAGHDAD As submitted the Iraqi List, a proposal to limit the jurisdiction of the Prime Minister will be discussed at the national meeting, go back a coalition of state law prompted to do so in violation of the Constitution and restrictive to him. Has revealed the leadership of the coalition of state law Hassan Sinead, “morning” that “the agenda, which was prepared for discussion at the national meeting included requirement or a proposal in advance of the Iraqi List, provides for the mandate of Prime Minister. ”
This article talks about some terms in the Erbil agreement (?) and the IS and KA’s insistance on limiting Maliki to only 2 terms. Maliki had promised to only run twice and then a while back decided to change his mind and run for a 3rd term (surprise – saw that coming a mile away). Though they have a point there – it will not be final sticking point. It is almost a certainty they will pass a law before Maliki gets to run again. There have already been discussions regarding the legislation and no one – I MEAN NO ONE wants this to go on and on….so it is moot anyway.
*** Rumor Comments *** – May 6th
Rumor – Iraq has 69 Trillion in M2 money supply in circulation and the math CANNOT work out for an RV. Those “in the know” are selling their Dinar.
I am familiar with the “intel group” that this information came out of. They haven’t been right about anything in the last 2 years. Dazzling with numbers but no accuracy. The very day after this bunk first came out – The CBI (Dr Shabibi’s “intel group”) came out with a report that directly contradicted this “revelation” (they said something like 32 Trillion – more believable). Do you want to trust some report from Iraq put together by a guy less educated than the clerck down at your local Motel 8??
I’m not selling my Dinar…
If you find a crazy rumor or have a question about something you’ve heard – bring it to one of the Mods over at www.dinarupdates.com and we’ll use it here. Thanks!!
*** More Chat Comments *** DinarUpdates.com – May 6th!!