Posted on May 2, 2012 by BGG http://www.dinarupdates.com/blog/
Hello Updaters!! Today we’ve got a NEWS FLOOD, another *** Flashback *** …..We’ve got a lot of good *** Current News *** to comment on…a few *** Rumor Comments *** and some interesting *** Chat Comments *** at the end. I hope you like the new Blog – BGG
*** Flashback ***
Today’s Flashback goes back about a month. President Barzani was on a trip to the US then headed to Bulgaria and on to Hungary. I was thinking to myself this seemed like a very strange intinerary. During his stay here in the US word started trickling out that Maliki was being criticized for listening to arguments in his Council of Ministers about potential direct action against the Kurds. This was not widely reported – then another report emerged (a few days later) that several of Maliki’s advisors plainly said “give us three days and we’ll wipe them out”. To which Maliki is alleged to have said “wait till the F-16′s arrive”. In retrospect – one of the highlights of US trip for Barzani was to protest the delivery of these F-16 aircraft (scheduled for the fall of this year) to Baghdad under the current regime.
Once I heard the initial report about some discussion in the Council of Ministers regarding direct action against the Kurds and Maliki had not immediately put an end to it…I started thinking – “if I were the leader of a embattled, semi-autonomous, oil-rich province and I were facing direct military action, what would I do”? Then I understood Barzani’s intinerary. I wrote about this quite a bit back then – sometimes “tongue in cheek” about heading up to a couple of former Eastern Bloc countries and trading some heating oil for a few dozen “slightly used” MiGs and T-72 main battle tanks – they have those things stacked 3 high just sitting there in storage!! They might not be M1a1′s and F-16′s but at least they would have something to fight with.
Read More Link on Right
Here’s an example of the type of armour they can get their hands on at pretty much “rock bottom” post-Cold War prices “The new Iraqi Government acquired dozens of refitted T-72M1s from Hungary, in order to equip an armored brigade (this was only a couple of years ago – Baghdad). The training and experience of the old Iraqi Army officers and crews with the T-72 was also one of the reasons behind this choice of tanks”.
They could defend with these.
Here was a listing for late model, operable MiG’s. I had imagined Barzani getting his hands on some older technology (there’s quite a bit of that to be had) but look at this!! “Those in the market for a used, fourth-generation, Soviet, air-superiority jet fighter need look no further than Hungary. The Central European country is putting up eight of its 24 remaining MiG-29 Fulcrums for tender. The Hungarian government has declared a minimum bid for the package of fighters at no less than $18.3 million USD”. Those things are crazy fast and really high-tech!! I bet there is some oil-for-? deal to be made here
Again – no one believed me, I was crazy, that’s not gonna’ happen…on and on. I thought – well, maybe I did get out over the edge a little there? Who knows? Lo and behold an article comes out about a week ago (almost 2 weeks after I called it) where Baghdad (the Federal Government) was protesting Kurdistan’s right to purchase weapons independent of the central government – particularly a sale of 300 T-72 main battle tanks from Russia. Barzani went way going past what I had imagined!! Whoa!! 300?!? I guess my thinking wasn’t that far off – huh?!? I doubt this sale will go through (as I recall) but Barzani may not be done shopping. Further, I’m sure some of this was “brinkmanship”.
*** Current News *** (I’ll update throughout the day)
Iraq’s political crisis is heading towards calm and the solution
Erbil / May (Rn) – The Iraqi deputy prime minister, said Tuesday that efforts will continue to hold the national meeting with the participation of all political leaders to resolve the current political crisis in the country, adding that the crisis is heading towards calm and the solution. This one is pretty self-explainatory – it’s good for us. Calm solutions!! http://www.aknews.com/ar/aknews/4/304705/
Iraqi Deputy: National Alliance divided on resolving the political crisis
“the National Alliance is divided into two parts on resolving the political crisis, Kaltaar Sadrists and the Supreme Council with resolving the political crisis, unlike the claims of a coalition of state law.” http://www.ikhnews.com/news.php?action=view&id=40766
Of course they are divided, the Sadrists (sorry they ever backed Malarki) and the SC (maybe a few stragglers as well) on one side - the SLC on the other side. This is not bad for us. It is awesome for us – his own party is split down the middle against him!!
Central Bank of Iraq’s new currency…soon to market
The Attorney-Khalil: The new currency will consist of the categories (1, 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50, 100, 200) dinars, as well as small metal groups (50 and 250) fils.
There are a few things that are bothering me about this piece – it will get a lot of play in the next few days. First, MP’s – Kurds, SLC – doesn’t matter, have no business talking in public about CBI projects. That’s the CBI’s job. It would be like a US Senator talking about FED monetary projects – the only guy who does that is Ron Paul. Second, all these denoms mentioned are already in existence – I can go get them less than 20 miles from my home…right down to the fils. Third, I’m not even sure this is a picture of the new bills – I’ll run over and check tomorrow. In the mean time, this looks like some kind of “diversion” – JMHO.
Expert: get out of Iraq from Chapter VII is essential
He added that the withdrawal of Iraq from Chapter VII has become an urgent necessity at the present time, especially after the return of Iraqi relations with external countries with reservations about Iraq as a result of the policy of the former regime as a state of Kuwait, in order to give Iraq full freedom to act on his money (Maliki needs money BAD).
My “news decoder ring” says – Yup, Mohammed – we’re with ya’. We want you out of CH 7 too. Just put a muzzle on “Little Adolf” and RV your currency – we’ll get right on it!!
They are still trying deflect from the real issue. These guys try to pull stuff a 5 year old wouldn’t. Of course it is “essential” to remove Iraq from CH 7 – we all know that…but no one is going to give Maliki a bag full of money (and a burgeoning economy) to go buy more tanks and F-16′s with. Will not happen…
All kidding aside – Notice how they used the “Expert” title for the person giving the interview. They are basically making an appeal to remove CH 7 sanctions based on an “expert” argument. These guys have tried this every which way you can think of.
Abdul Salam al-Maliki: Alliance ended on the agenda of the National Congress and submitted to the President of the Republic
BAGHDAD (Iba) … Astonished deputy state law Abdul Salam al-Maliki stuck to their demands some political blocs to attend a national meeting, despite knowing that the National Alliance completed the final agenda for the meeting is in the process waiting to take place in Baghdad in the near future.
What this is - Some windbag MP from the SLC was “astonished” that various (various – meaning Al-Iraqiya) parties were still sticking to their demands (to attend the MC meeting) even though the National Alliance had already put forth the proposed agenda for the National Conference Meeting (to the POR – that is good) - then they ramble off into unintelligible “jumbly speak” which their tendancy when they are trying to pull some more shenanigans…
What it boils down to is, I’ll be pleasantly surprised if Maliki is actually coerced into finalizing anything he’s agreed to previously. I fully expect this to be the last attempt and they will move against him sometime in mid-May. Once that is completed we should see an “interim” PM and some more very rapid movement.
Islamic Dawa Party….Without Maliki
“I do not know who leaked the news of the determination of al-Maliki to be out of the Islamic Dawa Party, and the formation of an entity associated with him personally, as quoted by the UAE “Al- bayan” newspaper in its issue on the twelfth of April, in a move similar to that initiated by al-Ja’afari, who left angrily and not satisfied as is the case with al-Maliki now”.
This news is a week or two old (this is a rehash – out yesterday) but when I first heard it – I knew Maliki had gone off the deep end – it was right around the time the NA was hounding him for that “come to Jesus meeting”. This basically goes into… he’s the name behind the party – they are enjoying good fortune because of him…on and on. He’s cranky over being dissed lately and he’s going to start his own party. The undertone not mentioned here (likely because this is a “puff piece” by his own gang) is they are kind of sick of him too. It has been reported that he doesn’t consult with the party (ever), treats the leaders poorly and doesn’t “take care of his own”. This won’t last long.
*** Rumor Comments *** – May 1st
Here are some rumors you might have heard about in the last few days (or weeks) and I’m including some commentary to help you parse what might be good, bad and just plain silly
Rumor – I FEEL IT IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN LIKE IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IRAQ IS POISED AND I HEARD IT HAS MOVED OUT OF IRAQ TO THE BIS FROM THE BIS TO IMF…
Well, firstly 2 weeks is a possibility – most of you know what things I’m thinking we need to see first though. However, If this decision were truly past Iraq and the BIS and to the IMF (which is a tiny bit out of order)…it would be done, over with and showing up a few short hours after such news got out (which it didn’t) Debunked.
Rumor – THE IQD AND DONG ARE EXTREMELY STRONG. IT APPEARS FROM INTEL, DATA & SOURCES REPORTING THAT THE FINALE SHOULD POST DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND/OR DAY TUESDAY.
On what planet are the IQD and the VND currently strong (they might be sometime soon)??? Followed by a statement “proclaiming” Tuesday…C’mon folks – soon is possible, but don’t be taken advantage of by this kind of stuff!!
Rumor – “RERMBER I TOLD YALL MY BANKER FREINDS THIS WOULD ONLY HAPPEN ON A TUESDAY ARE THURSDAY ,,WELL LORDY IT TUESDAY ,,,WOO ,,, FOREX IS HIGH HIGH WATCH ,,,, IRAQ JUST CALLED THE MEETING I NEED TO SEE START IN LESS THAN A HOUR..”
Bankers will NOT control the timing of this event (as in, the day of the week) - it will be Iraq and the BIS. Everything else will happen when it is “told to”. Forex has little or nothing to do with this and some market fluctuation will not “signal” anything. It will happen shortly after the politics are “ironed out”. Period. I already told you about the most important meetings that have already happened – last week and weekend!!
Rumor – “SEEMS THEY WERE USING A SYSTEM THAT GUESS WHO GAVE THEM AND IT HAD A BUNCH OF BACK DOORS TO GET IN. YES THE GOOD OLD USA. SO NOW THAT EVERYTHING IS SECURED, AND THAT THE IMF UN AND CBI ARE HAPPY, WE ARE ON TARGET TO GO DOWN THE PATH OF HAPPY LAND. THIS IS PER MY UST CONTACT IN DC, STRAIGHT OUT OF A MEETING NOT 2 HOURS AGO. I’M STICKING TO 8.16…”
They are using a US designed system – but there are no “glitches”, they aren’t trying to “push through” anything and there are no security issues (software). One thing Poppy does have is a couple of the best UST contacts in Dinarland – we haven’t heard any of this BS. The CBI isn’t “happy” yet, in fact, they are busy defending themselves against “take over” bids by Maliki’s gang of thugs pretty regular now (Maliki needs money). Once Maliki is dealt with – it will be safe to RV the currency. 8.16 is pure silliness – it will likely come in close to neighboring Kuwait. If they came out at 8.16 you would see war break out almost immediately. That’s just foolish.
*** More Chat Comments *** DinarUpdates.com – May 1st!!
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