Sem February 22, 2015 at 5:04pm
The following are the questions i think are pertinent to the fact that 1/2 of the budget was published. Yes, really, half!
1 Does this half enact the reform laws that were purported to be the hold up;
2 - Does this half allow Iraq to operate internationally;
3 - How does publishing this half correlate with the CBI statement yesterday;
4 - Were the Iraq banks closed over the weekend;
5 - Is it 24 or 48 hours to start funding the budget after publication;
6 - Does the publication of the half constitute the beginning of the funding implementation.
The above should be the discussion and help finding these answers. If they start funding the different ministries and program at the current rate, then I think there will be long delays.
LET'S SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME ANSWERS TO THE ABOVE. IT WILL HELP FOR A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT HAPPENED TODAY
Beverly > Sem Now we are TALKING SEM!!! That is exactly what we need to find out (if we can). GREAT list!
The whole POST a 50% budget is at this stage of the game something for us to do things like:
1. LAUGH first
2. SAY, "I did NOT see that coming!"
3. and then let's get the answers to YOUR questions above.
Lucy > Sem And.... since it's only 1/2 the budget, do they have 12 or 24 hours instead of 24 or 48 hours???? JK - good questions!!
OilRat February 22, 2015 at 5:19pm
I agree with Sem's analysis......here also is something to look for.
There are three potential liquidity avenues currently for Iraq to function day-to-day:
1. Continue the auctions as usual...the current report from CBI said as of today that will not continue.
2. Decide to re-distribute the higher denoms back into the market.....I doubt that is an option due to the CBI working tirelessly at removing them over the past two years.
3. RI/RV the IQD.......as Exo has said which I agree with, the RI is the most logical to start with.
Just do the history on how much USD the Iraqi banks have been purchasing everyday for 10+ years and then you can answer your own questions in your head......Iraq cannot survive without one of the top three happening.
My thoughts are: if the auctions are done, we probably have less than a week before Iraq has zero liquidity in the banks for day-to-day use......JMO
EXOGEN WHY ON EARTH DID WE NOT SEE THIS COMING WHEN THEY JUST VIOLATED THEIR CONSTITUTION LAST WEEK..........LOL!!!!
dinardiva What's up with frank26 saying another week he is going to faint for a week
OilRat > dinardiva Stay grounded.....it may be a week or so, and/or less before we are in the banks/exchange centers.......just realize that tha final stage/process has finally begun!!!
Also, be thankful your part of this amazing opportunity!!!
Sqwatchy > Yes OilRat..that is where the issue lies....liquidity. WE know where Iraq is and what they need to do to solve it.....it is the unknown that drives us crazy...when does the puppet string get finally cut..Was there a legit reason for printing only half today????
Yes...because if they printed it all...It needs to be funded . They can certainly break that law as well, so it boils down to the outside influence...what is the reason for any delay, or is a GO?
OilRat > Sqwatchy It's possible the other part of the budget has numbers they don't want the public to see yet.....the actions are more significant then what people realize....if this was going to be drug out for months and/or even weeks, the actions would not be stopped. They would just keep purchasing USD for their day-to-day liquidity....if they don't do any further auctions, then the writing is on the wall and the RI has to happen within days....JMO
notthe1 : The Day the Shackles fell ... The Key has turned..IMO...
lexi : SO this still is going to take a while?
Frank26: I will sound if not look like a parrot but once again: YOU look for a DATE ...... They look for a new RATE......Who do You think will prevail. KTFA Frank
Dinari131: hmm...the rate needs a date and the date needs a rate...I wonder when they gonna tell it or be allowed to???
walkongstick :Abadi: a delay salary proposals to address the lack of liquidity
22/02/2015 23:13:00 Print out
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that the delay of ten days the employees' salaries is one of the proposals to address the lack of financial liquidity.
Ebadi said during a meeting with a number of representatives and managers of satellite channels that "the rumor, which was launched on delayed payment of salaries ten days is one of the proposals and ideas in case we run into the problem of low liquidity," stressing saying "we do not need now to implement this proposal, but we might need him, This depends on the nature of oil prices and revenues. "
He said al-Abadi, that "during the months of January and February of this year, imports dropped dramatically as each year due to the weather," pointing out that "the crisis that we face now are not making Iraqis but relate to the global economy."
Aggiedad77: My take on PM Abadi is that he normally is pretty much a straight shooter with what he has to say....unlike his predecessor.....his choice of words today....."in case we run into the problem of low liquidity"....."we do not now need to implement this proposal"...."but we might need him, This depends on the nature of oil prices and revenue".....this all says to me....they had a plan B....but plan A appears to be working for them....
Maybe not today, or tomorrow....but very soon their liquidity issue will go away....it won't magically happen all on its own.....his "surprise" that maybe we have yet to see could be sitting in his back pocket....ready to be pulled out.....
I see this man, not as a cunning individual but as one who is a very polished leader, one who can orchestrate complicated programs or projects and juggle any number of tasks put before him.....
I cannot recall a time yet in his tenure as PM that we've seen this man get flustered....that takes a certain level of maturity.....my opinions.
Another observation on my part....take it or leave it.....but here we have the CBI "offering" to loan money again.....another 6 trillion dinar to stimulate domestic production....according to its own laws...
This is not a direction the CBI goes routinely....but where my observation is headed is this.....all of these loans that have been talked about are not in the present tense....makes me wonder....what are they waiting on....the budget maybe....or maybe something like Abadi's "surprise".....just more to consider and ponder. Aloha Randy