Currency Chatter Member Discussion Part 2
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM What’s the future of OPEC? By Elias Hinckley
Brule Who is coming to Davos 2015 Over 40 heads of state and government, as well as 2,500 other leaders from business and society will convene at the 45th World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, from 21 to 24 January 2015 in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, to discuss The New Global Context.
This context consists of 10 global challenges affecting the world today: environment and resource scarcity; employment skills and human capital; gender parity; long-term investing, infrastructure and development; food security and agriculture; international trade and investment; future of the internet; global crime and anti-corruption; social inclusion; and future of financial systems.
Current affairs, such as the escalating geopolitical conflicts, pandemics, diverging growth and the new energy context are on the agenda as well.
“The World Economic Forum serves the international community as a platform for public-private cooperation,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.
“Such cooperation, to address the challenges we all face, is more vital than ever before. But it requires mutual trust. My hope is that the Annual Meeting serves as the starting point for a renaissance of global trust.”
Ahmet Davutoğlu, Prime Minister of Turkey, Béji Caïd Essebsi, President of Tunisia, François Hollande, President of France, Li Keqiang, Prime Minister of the People’s Republic of China, Angela Merkel, Federal Chancellor of Germany, John Kerry, US Secretary of State, Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan, Matteo Renzi, Prime Minister of Italy, Simonetta Sommaruga, President of the Swiss Confederation, and Jacob Zuma, President of South Africa, will be among the key government representatives present.
Participants also include more than 1,500 business leaders from the Forum’s 1,000 Member companies, 300 public figures as well as recognized leaders from other Forum communities, including Social Entrepreneurs, Global Shapers, Young Global Leaders and Technology Pioneers.
Representatives from international organizations and civil society, as well as religious leaders, cultural leaders, academia and the media will also participate.
The full programme consists of over 280 sessions out of which over 100 sessions will be live webcast. The themes include:
Crisis & Cooperation
Resolving geopolitical crises: With conflicts continuing to destabilize Ukraine, the Middle East and other parts of the world, what can the international community do to help bring about a lasting peace?
Registered participants include Abdel Fatah El Sisi, President of Egypt, H.M. King Abdullah II Ibn Al Hussein, King of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Haïdar Al Abadi, Prime Minister of Iraq, Masoud Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region, Iraq, Petro Poroshenko, President of Ukraine.
Repercussions of climate change: As the world prepares for another round of post-Kyoto climate negotiations, what are the chances for success at the climate meeting in Paris? And how can the private sector contribute?
Registered participants include Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Ollanta Moises Humala Tasso, President of Peru, and Al Gore, Vice-President of the United States (1993-2001); Chairman and Co-Founder, Generation Investment Management, USA.
Pandemics and health:
As the outbreak of Ebola has shown, combating the spread of viruses is still a worldwide priority. At the same time, non-communicable diseases such as diabetes are becoming the world’s biggest silent killer. What can the world do to ensure global health going forward?
Registered participants include Kofi Annan, Chairman, Kofi Annan Foundation, Switzerland; Secretary-General, United Nations (1997-2006), Margaret Chan, Director-General, World Health Organization (WHO), Geneva, Alpha Condé, President of Guinea, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, President of the Republic of Mali, and Peter Piot, Director, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Executive Director, UNAIDS (1994-2008).
Growth & Stability
Diverging growth and monetary policies: As expansionary monetary policy in one part of the world comes to an end, central banks policies in other parts of the world are further incentivizing the growth and employment, with mixed results. What will 2015 bring in terms of growth and monetary policies around the world?
Registered participants include Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Governors of the Central Banks of Brazil, Canada, England, France, Italy, Japan, Mexico and Switzerland.
The new energy context: As energy prices are dropping to five-year lows, what are the short- and long-term effects on the world? What does it mean for growth in emerging economies and the impact on climate change?
Registered participants include Khalid Al Falih, President and Chief Executive Officer, Saudi Armco, Mary Barra, Chief Executive Officer, General Motors Company, Abdalla Salem El Badri, Secretary-General, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Emilio Lozoya, Chief Executive Officer, Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), and Patrick Pouyanné, Chief Executive Officer and President of the Executive Committee, Total, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Innovation & Industry
Future of technology: As technology expands to virtually all aspects of the economy, how does it affect our lives? What good can technology do for the world? And what is the right balance between copetition and innovation in the technology industry?
Registered participants include Jack Ma Yun, Executive Chairman, Alibaba Group, Marissa Mayer, President and Chief Executive Officer, Yahoo, Satya Nadella¸ Chief Executive Officer, Microsoft Corporation, Sheryl Sandberg, Chief Operating Officer and Member of the Board, Facebook Inc., Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Google, USA, and Jimmy Wales, Founder and Chair Emeritus, Board of Trustees, Wikimedia Foundation.
Society & Security
Income inequality and the development agenda: While many countries are still struggling to reinvigorate growth, the discussion in other countries revolves around the redistribution of wealth. How can we incorporate the needs of developing nations, struggling western economies, and the equality and parity questions?
Registered participants include Roberto Azevêdo, Director-General, World Trade Organization (WTO), Bill Gates, Co-Chair, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Melinda Gates, Co-Chair, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Angel Gurría, Secretary-General, Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Undersecretary-General and Executive Director, United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN WOMEN), and Guy Ryder, Director-General, International Labour Organization (ILO).
The Co-Chairs of the Annual Meeting 2015 are: Hari S. Bhartia, Co-Chairman and Founder, Jubilant Bhartia Group, India; Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director, Oxfam International, United Kingdom;
Katherine Garrett-Cox, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Alliance Trust, United Kingdom; Young Global Leader Alumnus; Jim Yong Kim, President, The World Bank, Washington DC; Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Google, USA; and Roberto Egydio Setubal, Chief Executive Officer and Vice-Chairman of the Board of Directors, Itaú Unibanco, Brazil.
Author: Fon Mathuros is Senior Director, Head of Media at the World Economic Forum.
Mally I read that too Blow but my eyes went crossed and I spaced out after a few sentences. Doesnt this sentence Canadian oil sands, that means would be economic at prices above $60 per barrel at current costs.
This figure does not account carbon pricing mean that oil would have to be at least above 60 bucks a barrel for the keystone pipeline to make economic sense? And yet the push is still on.
I dont get it as they are now saying oil will never get back close to 100 bucks and may even go as low as 20 bucks a barrel at some point in the future.
Fred Dubai got it years ago. They are building an entire city based on tourism. Indoor snow skiing. World class auto racing facilities. Golf. Worlds tallest building, Etc. The times I passed through there in '05- '07 it looked like they were doubling the number of huge beautiful buildings there. They know that when they run out of crude they will need something else...
Mally Oil is used to manufacture just about everything we dont eat. We will always need it but it doesnt take much in the way of reduced demand for the cost to drop a lot.
What drives the cost up is speculation. I think what they are telling us is the speculation that demands will continue to grow is no longer there so the price is dropping back down to reality.
Thats my take on it anyways. Im a little more bullish then you though on what the future may hold for technological advances that dont use oil.
Think about what a hundred year old guy has seen in terms of advancements and the internet is fueling new break throughs at speeds not seen since the industrial revolution.
Brule WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM 2015 DAVOS, Switzerland 2015 Agenda : Climate Change
Something rather profound has been taking place in the global climate change agenda over the past 12 months or so.
The global scientific community is now “unequivocal” in its opinion that the climate system has warmed since the beginning of the industrial revolution (most estimate by about 0.8°C), and that rising levels of greenhouse gas pollution from human activities, such as fossil fuel use or land clearing for agriculture, are “extremely likely” (a probability of 95% or more) to be the cause of this warming.
Without action, scientists suggest things will get much worse – we are on course for warming of about 3 to 4°C by the end of the century, the implications – and unknowns – of which are causing increasing concern.
As the science sharpens, the economic case for action on climate change has also crystalized.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the likely costs of even a 2°C increase will be between 0.5% and 2% of global GDP by mid-century. With the OECD forecasting an era of slow global growth for the next generation – about 3% maximum per year through to 2060 – the cost of climate change, even at the lowest estimate, becomes a significant economic concern.
There is a growing realization that any mainstream actions we take now to enhance our future growth prospects – whether in industrialized or developing economies – will be more successful if they also include action to address climate change.
The corollary holds true. Investments in, say, urban or energy infrastructure systems that lower emissions or strengthen resilience to climate risk will help dampen the effects of climate change on economic growth. In this new context, strategies to promote growth and to deal with climate change are inexorably intertwined. For both industrialized and developing countries, actions on climate, development and growth go together.
The case for action
The first report of the Global Commission on Economy and Climate, released this year, sets out the case for action. It estimates that over the next 15 years around $6 trillion will be invested globally each year in new infrastructure for cities, land use and energy systems.
This investment, the commission argues, will take place regardless of climate change: industrialized and developing economies will anyhow transform themselves in line with new technologies, sustained demographic change and rapid urbanization.
Yet, to ensure these investments in infrastructure also address climate change (and therefore bolster prospects of promoting future growth above 1%) would cost only about $270 billion extra a year, the commission suggests.
By a rather delicious irony, this is roughly the same in dollar terms as the combined increase in wealth that the 400 richest Americans experienced last year, according to Forbes.
The politics of climate change are also changing fast. In January 2014, the World Economic Forum at Davos held an unprecedented “climate day” to advance public-private cooperation on climate change in some key thematic areas, such as forests, agriculture, finance and energy.
In September 2014, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon hosted the first ever Climate Summit at the UN headquarters in New York. Over 120 heads of state and 800 heads of business, NGOs and civic society took part. Progress in public-private cooperation on climate change in key action areas was assessed and further new commitments were announced. It was the largest high-level climate change meeting ever staged.
Outside, over 350,000 citizens marched through the streets of New York and in other cities around the world urging action on climate change. This was the biggest civic demonstration for action on climate ever held.
Then, in November, a historic bilateral agreement on climate change was reached between the United States and China. The United States agreed to reduce its emissions by 26-28% by 2025 and China agreed to peak then reduce its emissions by 2030, while increasing its share of non-fossil fuel energy to 20%.
And in December, the United Nations Climate Change conference in Lima paved the way for every country – industrialized or developing – to take action on climate. Combined, these various political and diplomatic developments have established a new context for global action on climate change.
Why 2015 is a crucial year
This is a crucial objective. The year 2015 is a very important one for the climate and development agenda. In July, the Third International Conference on Financing for Development will be held in Addis Ababa, which will set a new overseas aid and investment agenda.
September will see the United Nations host discussions to agree a set of new global sustainable development goals to last until 2030. And in December, a new international climate accord is due for agreement in Paris.
The positioning of climate, development and economic growth as competing agendas during these crucial heads of state meetings in 2015 will not serve the world well. Instead, and with this year’s agenda in mind,
the Annual Meeting in Davos is positioned to help political, business and non-governmental leaders discuss and cement the new context for addressing climate change, development and growth together, and as a result get set for success in 2015.
Consequently, an unprecedented thread of action-oriented discussions on how to advance a practical public-private programme of integrated cooperation on climate change, development and growth has been developed for Davos 2015, in collaboration with the United Nations, the World Bank and other prominent business and civil society actors.
We will focus on catalysing wider leadership for action in the year ahead. Topics will include how to scale up new blended finance models of investment for development and ways to communicate the combined climate and development challenge.
We will also explore what needs to be done to make progress on key global action agendas that contain climate and development “win-wins”, including in forests, agriculture, energy and finance.
In line with the World Economic Forum’s mission to improve the state of the world through public-private cooperation, the Annual Meeting 2015 is geared to help our political, business and civil society leaders advance the new context for integrated action on climate change, development and growth through this most important year.
Author: Dominic Waughray is Head of Public-Private Partnerships at the World Economic Forum.
The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks 2015 report will be published on January 15.
MD’Shea Regarding oil, keep your eye on the swinging pendulum. How low will oil prices go? With OPEC’s war on American oil production no one can know until after we reach the bottom.
With the $48 WTI level is falling victim on January 12th, the $42 level is likely with the 2009 low of $32 not being implausible. The tattletale sign that a low has been reached is when excess oil production aligns with demand.
As in past oil boom and bust cycles the pendulum swings too far in both directions, as prices swing too low they are more likely to swing to the high side of $100 sometime in 2016 - Déjà vu.
KJWayne All I want is an RV at over $3.00 per dinar. I'm on the down end of my life cycle so I'm going out as a Happy Rich Man!