12-27-12 SWFloridaGuy (MIG): Everyone is out of the loop. I've been saying none of us have a clue for a long time. Many pretend to though. Only the very naive or arrogant think they have the inside track on this. You have to be a special kind of stupid to throw out dates and rates not only once but multiple times a week.
Over a year ago (back in June) when we all thought this was going down, I was in OOM before I got banned. I was still in my listening to intel providers phase and around 1am I actually went into the room and called a date and rate. The next day when it didn't pan out I felt unbelievably horrible and swore I would never do that to anyone again.
That is why I continually find myself in a state of incredulity watching these guys do this every week. The excuse that they are just passing on what they are hearing has never really resonated with me because they don't have unlimited amazing contacts and why would you ever go back to someone who has proven themselves meretricious at best.
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I personally believe that group mentality plays a major role in facilitating this behavior. This is similar to the Genovese syndrome where individuals don't help others in order to further their own agenda. The probability of help is inversely related to the number of bystanders; in other words, the greater the number of bystanders, the less likely it is that any one of them will help.
Getting back to our investment; economic policy is influenced by international capital markets and foreign central banks and I certainly don't pretend to know the motives behind those that would influence either.
There are many intelligent people in the rooms. Many far more knowledgeable then myself and I've learned so much from them. They are also the first to admit that they don't have all the answers because they actually have some grasp as to the complexity of the situation. This is all the more reason that we need to provide as much evidence for our claims as possible.
This has been a frustrating journey for many of us and we should do everything in our power to limit these frustrations. I have no way of knowing for sure but I do feel great about where we're at going into 2013. This just could be our year, only time will tell. Hopefully, we'll all cross the finish line together soon and celebrate this long journey finally coming to an end.
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