[Gwaithfoed3] Historian There have been claims that Iraq rv'd June 30th and some of these calims make sense if you look at what they have done since that time. When a country rv's their currency is it possible to have a partial rv and then have a full rv later?
[Historian] Gwaithfoed3 I'm not an expert on RV's, but I would expect that just about anything is possible. One just needs to write the agreements accordingly. For example, they could have RV'd with a future effective date, then started processing all the debits and credits on paper, and possibly advanced funds to Iraq to deal with immediate interim costs.
[Gwaithfoed3] Historian Thanks that would explain some of the actions taken over the past several months and seemingly the payment of certain debts.
[msjeta1] Historian look at all the loans that they got and now this last one for just a weeks time
[Historian] Gwaithfoed3 Yes. That is also pretty typical of complex financial transactions involving debt, payouts, etc. There's too much processing to have it happen at the flick of a switch, so there is a date they start processing, and a date they (sometimes TBD) that it all becomes effective.
[Historian] msjeta1 Who got a loan for just one week's time?
[msjeta1] Historian I thought that this last one that someone brought in was just a week maybe a month Iraq got from IMF I thought maybe it was bluedogs post the other day
[msjeta1] I know it was some very short time period
[Historian] Gwaithfoed3 msjeta1 It also explains why some intel has said there is a Tier 1, 2 and 3. That would make total sense if one needed to organize a huge amount of manual work, so that it all was done by the same end point and no one had an advantage because they were at the start of the line.
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[Historian] msjeta1 OK. I don't have time to read all the articles, so I mainly look out for certain key pieces of intel. If they are getting loans, then they either spent more than intended, or the time stretched out longer than expected. And they need the RV to go live.
[Gwaithfoed3] So over the past months when some where indicating that we were seeing activity of an rv this is probably what we were seeing.
[Historian] Gwaithfoed3 That has been my thought. All that intel about people or Tiers cashing in or RV'ing was - imo - indications that the currency counting, authenticating, accounting, and paperwork was underway prior to the actual go live date.
[HAPPYTRAILS] msjeta1 Historian; it was an article that bluedog had.....imf lending iraq a million or so for one week
[Historian] HAPPYTRAILS Well, that imo is a good sign. Suggest to me that we're near the go live date. If we weren't, they would have had to lend more.
[sloompy] Historian, do you know who is going to announce the RV? The IMF..Shabibi...Maliki ..or is it going into the system whitout being announced?
[msjeta1] BEIJING (AP) -- Premier Wen Jiabao has promised China's struggling exporters a stable exchange rate in a move that might fuel tensions with Washington over Beijing's currency controls as the global economy weakens. Wen's pledge, reported by the official Xinhua News Agency and state radio, comes after the U.S. Senate approved a measure to allow higher tariffs on Chinese goods that critics say are unfairly cheap due to an artificially undervalued currency. Beijing's exchange rate controls are especially sensitive at a time when other nations are trying to revive growth by boosting exports and complain that a weak Chinese yuan is widening the country's swollen trade surplus. Wen's pledge Friday at a trade fair in southern China came after export growth suffered an unexpectedly steep decline in September, hurt by a fall in sales to Europe amid the continent's debt crisis. Wen promised a "basically stable exchange rate," Xinhua said. He pledged to maintain export-related tax rebates and other support. U.S. manufacturers complain t
[jonjobe7] HAPPYTRAILS i'm remembering i saw that yesterday for $5billion. did cessie post that?
[Historian] sloompy I have no idea. I would imagine that an RV in Iraq would be announced by either Maliki or Shabibi (will be a political decision). I don't see an RV being announced outside Iraq, though I anticipate hearing something on the business or financial news. I think we will hear them announce a solution to Europe.
[Gwaithfoed3] Historian I would think that with this rv happening to help stabilize the global debt crisis it is now probably out of the hands of Iraq and in the hands of the BIS or IMF.
[max13th] Historian , What is the possibility of planning their RV rate with the expectations of the current year budget and also include the future expeditures towards the direction they see in years to come. I feel this could increase the value as it first appears. If this does how typacally is multiple years % calculated to determine the rate. I understand Iraq is unique but have you experianced a growth rate formular that is used to calculate future growth? Thanks in advance
[Historian] Gwaithfoed3 yes, but I don't see an RV being announced as the solution. I think that one or a group of the players will announce that they have a solution to the European debt crisis, and then any other stories will be phased in over time.
[Historian] max13th It is not a formula. It is calculated by identifying the specific things (initiatives) they wish to undertake in that time frame, and working out the cost. Then adding that to the on-going operating budget, with inflation and growth taken into account.
[Historian] max13th Also, growth does not just mean country growth. It means the steady "ramp up" or increased use of new programs, services, infrastructure etc., since they won't hit full operation the minute they are out the starting gate.
[Historian] The spin in the news media is still suggesting October. I'm not yet hearing hints of anything beyond that.
[Historian] dwd9491 Cessie Agent 007 Am half-way through, and from what I can see it talks a lot about the obligations of members in maintaining their currencies in a manner that effectively enables the world to operate smoothly. There are clauses related to expected standards, what they can and cannot do, etc.
[Agent 007] hmmm
[mr timothy] I think since last sept 2010 we all have been on information overload and lots of the intell runs together the closer we get to th RV, wear you out if your not carefull
[Cessie] Historian Interesting
[dwd9491] Historian Remember that these are things that the members agree to do on a voluntary basis only as a donar member nation.
[Historian] Section 3. Surveillance over exchange arrangements (a) The Fund shall oversee the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation, and shall oversee the compliance of each member with its obligations under Section 1 of this Article.
[Agent 007] mr timothy so then we should all be feeling like this
[mr timothy] ythat is what I was trying to say exactly
[Agent 007] oversee the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation - those are key words to me
[Agent 007] mr timothy
[dwd9491] Historian Yes , but remember they have no enforcement ability and can enforce nothing.
[mr timothy] overseeing is not the same as doing or having done
[NavyVet] dwd9491 - nor can the UN or US...
[Agent 007] correct mr timothy
[jonjobe7] there must be some method in order to oversee the international monetary system in order to ensure its effective operation
[zigmnstr] are you saying they don't have the authority to make these loans and do what they are doing???
[Historian] Section 1. General obligations of members Recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to provide a framework that facilitates the exchange of goods, services, and capital among countries, and that sustains sound economic growth, and that a principal objective is the continuing development of the orderly underlying conditions that are necessary for financial and economic stability, each member undertakes to collaborate with the Fund and other members to assure orderly exchange arrangements and to promote a stable system of exchange rates. In particular, each member shall:
[dwd9491] Historian Their obligations as a member. These are non enforcable . jonjobe7 There is not! The IMF is an attempt to do just that!
[mr timothy] I personally believe no one can force the RV other than Shabbi, that is my thought and I'm sticking to it
[Historian] (i) endeavor to direct its economic and financial policies toward the objective of fostering orderly economic growth with reasonable price stability, with due regard to its circumstances; (ii) seek to promote stability by fostering orderly underlying economic and financial conditions and a monetary system that does not tend to produce erratic disruptions; (iii) avoid manipulating exchange rates or the international monetary system in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members; and (iv) follow exchange policies compatible with the undertakings under this Section.
[Historian] dwd9491 Is it the issue of enforcement is what is troubling you? Enforcement can be bypassed. Countries have relationships and dependencies. Pressure can be applied under the table. Agreements can be struck behind the scenes to address that. No one needs to be the enforcer.
[dwd9491] Historian Please think about this. We do not want the IMF to have any enforcement power. We should not ever give power to any outside orginazation to controll our currency other that the market place.
[mr timothy] besides thant I believe it the RV was already done June 30,2011
[zigmnstr] are you saying they don't have the authority to make these loans and do what they are doing???
[Historian] dwd9491 I totally agree that we don't want the IMF to have that power. But we don't need it to have that power.
[dwd9491] zigmnstr Only as the donar nation that donated the money can give them the power to administrate an loan program.
[zigmnstr] really? don't remember them asking to loan iraq any more money
[dwd9491] zigmnstr If the US sets a program up to loan any country money the US sets the rules and they give the IMF the program to admin.
[jonjobe7] Historian dwd9491 who owns the cbi?
[Historian] None of us can say what is really going on because we are on the outside of this, guessing at the big picture by looking at a few puzzle pieces. But we can look at the general behaviour of countries. They tend to do deals with each other, and most of this is not out in the open.
[zigmnstr] these entities have too much power over us the people
[zigmnstr] that's not right
[Historian] jonjobe7 I believe it is Fed Reserve and UST. The latter has 51% I believe.
[Agent 007] True Historian about looking in through the window - we might be able to see them but will really never know what deals or hands are dealt around that poker table.
[jonjobe7] Historian so they have the influence to determine when an RV would occur?
[tradewind_cell] So if the IMF is not the enforcer who does the collecting of the debts?
[dwd9491] mr timothy Think about this for a moment. The remaoval of the three zeros must be accomplished befor they can effective RV and keep controll of the stiuation during and after the RV.
jonjobe7] dwd9491 what is your understanding of the 3 zero removal?
[elaine schembre] jonjobe7 .... are you talking about the UST has the influence to determine when the RV will occur?
[Historian] Agent 007 dwd9491 jonjobe7 I think they have all kinds of agreements behind the scenes, and that includes the RV and how it occurs. They will find a way to bypass any laws or conventions to achieve the goal, and that is not hard to do.
[Agent 007] correct
[Agent 007] sad but correct
[jonjobe7] elaine schembre if they are the primary owners
[dwd9491] tradewind_cell The IMF has some characteresctics of a mort co .
[Historian] dwd9491 The IMF is being side-lined in any case. It will be interesting to see what happens to it.
[Historian] dwd9491 Oh, well that's always been my view. I don't look at the official rules of countries and organizations. I've seen too many times when things happen according to the back room deals. However, I believe that the deals are leading to an RV. And right now, the spin being served is pointing to sooner rather than later.
[elaine schembre] Historian .... I guess I am a little confused.... can the US Gov... tell Iraq... when to RV... and who would be in charge of getting all the countries to RV at the same time
[Historian] elaine schembre I suspect it is an agreement involving numerous countries. Which is why we have had these delays over the last year. I suspect they have kept modifying or "tweaking" their vision of what they would do.
[Historian] elaine schembre Probably, there were more complexities and risks associated with doing them separately than doing them together. If you recall, months ago we thought there were only about 30 currencies, then it increased in stages. I think people behind the scenes were deciding how best to do this
[Historian] elaine schembre That would explain the delays. Though the complexities of doing that may be less risky than the issues that arise when currencies are done separately, and then value between countries is not aligned. That has a huge economic risk.
[Historian] Lady Sarah Yes. In the end, we are all guessing as to what is really going on. But with the help of intel and some common sense, we can arrive at a fairly decent educated guess.
[citygirl] I have never thought a one to one exchange would accomplish what Iraq has planned for their re-building. From what I have learned, Iraq wants to create such a magnificent country, that one to one won't do it, even after they get their oil fields pumping again.
[Historian] citygirl I agree. I tend to lean towards the intel that indicates it will end up at the higher rates. Plus, I look at the difference in asset value between the different countries. If Iraq with so much wealth in the ground were only $1 or even $3, then how low would we have to put some countries with few assets?
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