KAPERONI: I would not put 5+ years of research on the dinar, and the last 7 months telling people its a free float, if I was not sure.
JMAN1: Kap- I heard you on a CC with BGG a couple months(?) ago, where you stated your free float idea. BGG and/or Poppy gave their view on why they thought it would be in the $3 ranges...
.I think I remember Poppy's reason being because Shabibi said it would(I know it can be interpreted as over time to get to that level), and BGG gave his(I think). You use your reasoning as proof from articles, and they use their reasoning 'I think' from articles as well.
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JMAN: Yours comes from the CBI website(?) and IMF(?) I think you said.... and theirs comes from articles from MP statements and/or Maliki or Shabibi statements in articles. Now we ALL know how contradictory these Iraqi articles are....one says one thing, and then then next article from a different paper says the exact opposite.
Can't the same be said for your articles and theirs? In any case, I'm just entirely sick of this ride already, and want SOMETHING to happen no matter what it is! Maybe with a $3 rv, baz can get that much wanted voice box operation so she/he can sing like her hero, Boy George,and maybe bozoman could afford to buy some friends?....nah, even a $3 rv wouldn't get him that much $$
KAPERONI: jman, last year at this time I was saying .90 cents because that is what the articles said. We even acquired a video where two economists were talking to each other saying "staging rate" for the dinar. So that IMO was the plan. And I was amendment that we would see a $1 to 1 rate.
Heck, even the SIGIR report to the US Congress mentions something on those lines.
The thing is, this all changed when Maliki got aggressive last April to stop Shabibi. Since then, there have been several articles from various entities..such as economists, the Arab Monetary Fund, and even the CBI themselves that say free float or "orbital rate of exchange."
Now, when i dug into this farther, I found that this is the custom procedure for developing emerging markets to go from a "currency board" to a "free float" for a period of time to let the market set the true value of the currency. This is direct from the IMF. So I was still not convinced until last Sept, 2012.
Do you remember the Banking Conference in England? Well about two weeks before that event I was given some information to follow up on that related to a contract, and agreement with a particular company to handle the launching of the free float. This was just information at the time.
But as the days passed, I was able to absolutely confirm it as fact. I am not at liberty to discuss that information, but be assured, I am correct.
I would not put 5+ years of research on the dinar, and the last 7 months telling people its a free float, if I was not sure.
My reputation and efforts over the years are on the line. I knew there would be skeptics, so I called another dinar researcher..one that I am quite fond of his work Enorrste, and let him come along on a visit.
He heard and saw first hand what I heard and saw. Can this change again? Sure in this game, anything can happen.
One more thing, with the civil and political unrest, I was told by a former us marine..."that this was the calm before the storm." It's pretty obvious that no matter what the monetary policy is, Iraq is not a very stable country and this all could fall apart any day. That is the true risk IMO in this investment.
REBEL: Kap: I think you have it nailed. This whole thing took a major turn when Shabibi was removed. The whole thing could blow up any time. Maliki is front and center of the issues that have delayed the CBI and BIS from doing anything in the way of rv'ing.
I can't imagine any country, especially the US, wanting or being willing to let Maliki have the control he currently has over Iraq and at the same time being willing to let him be in control of the most valuable currency in the world with the resources they have.
Especially when this idiot keeps buttering up to Iran and Syria. The other thing you commented on was that you felt the risk of Iraq falling apart was the "true risk" in this investment. I absolutely agree on that point. Thanks for your comments. Thanks to jman for continuing the discussion. Very good guys.