(Darjohn post My Invested Group)
Kaperoni "Impromptu" chat looks at the IMF World Bank transcript with Shabibi
kaperoni: first i need to set the stage
kaperoni: the comments i will post are real, they are not actors, only the names and faces have been changed...lol
kaperoni: these are from the people on the "team" from the IMF and WB
kaperoni: not all shabs comments
kaperoni: i read the transcript at least 5 times top to bottom
kaperoni: there is some real juice in that transcript
kaperoni: let me get some quotes and explanations
kaperoni: "fourthly, the whole issue around banking supervision. We know that if we ignore that, then the sector will be on a runaway track. So ensuring that we have solid supervision is absolutely key."
kaperoni: So they state here that in order for all this to succeed, they need to get people there to supervise the banks.
kaperoni: pretty basic initially
kaperoni: but it gets real good
kaperoni: "And finally, of course, to ensure that we have--and I think we do have in the spirit of the Governor and the Minister here--a strong politically supported effort to prevent any abuse and any undermining of these very efforts on reform that are underway through working on corruption issues and anti-money laundering, and issues around prudent fiscal and financial management of the banking sector."
kaperoni: So he is saying that they have the support of shabibi and minister of finance to get this project done
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kaperoni: "So when we look at Iraq's banking and financial systems and the speed of these adjustments that need to happen, it's very clear that there are some--this is not an easy road to travel because there are political and many other issues that play, "
kaperoni: Pointing out here, how fast they are working on this...bumps are in the road, not to mention the political issues
kaperoni: "And we in the Ministry of Finance, when we came back to Baghdad, me and Mr. Governor had a very extended meeting to put the time table for implementing that action plan."
kaperoni: Pretty clear! After meeting with these people, and going through the process, they have a "time table" to implement this
kaperoni: Now shabs comments...
kaperoni: "because development of the financial sector will make all these things actually easy for the development and for the resources to go from different saver to different investors and all these things."
kaperoni: He is stating the obvious....that without this rv, they cannot go forward with the rest of the plans
kaperoni: "and we, in the Central Bank, we are actually all ready to give all the support,"
kaperoni: He and his team are ready and giving full support to this process to get it done!
kaperoni: "So you can actually count on our support on that, because, I mean, not only the support actually--it is a support actually which we are going to benefit from,"
kaperoni: He states...u can count on the CBI
kaperoni: cause when this is done, the CBI itself will benefit from the reforms
kaperoni: great stuff right?
kaperoni: ok much more..
kaperoni: here is something good
kaperoni: "one of the key projects that we have is the banking sector reform project, and we are very happy to see, also, the new Minister of Finance with his leadership, because the Governor has been working on that project along with limited support from the government."
kaperoni: This IMO is the RV
kaperoni: The technical name for the RV is the "banking sector reform project"
kaperoni: cause obviously it is more than just changing the rate and notes.
kaperoni: "And just quickly, the main objective of the report was to assess the soundness and stability of the financial sector, especially with the global crisis and what is happening in the Arab region, so we think it comes at an opportune time."
kaperoni: So they say....due to the global crisis, we had to get this report together
kaperoni: so find out where we were with this event
kaperoni: to see if iraq was ready to pull this off
kaperoni: to find out how much still needs to be done, etc.
kaperoni: this team is on our side!
kaperoni: they did this to help us!
kaperoni: "One thing I want to highlight before the team takes over is it's a joint product. It's not the World Bank report. It's a product that was done in collaboration with the Iraqi government, and we did, as His Excellency, the Minister of Finance, mentioned, we did sit for three days, consecutive days, also with Hedi there, discussing."
kaperoni: They are telling you how this was done
kaperoni: that this "team" from the IMF and WB sat for 3 days
kaperoni: with Iraq
kaperoni: and it is a team effort to pull this off
kaperoni: "And in many things that the team did put, we did reflect, we did make changes, we did discuss some laws we were not aware of, we reflected."
kaperoni: they talked about the entire event
kaperoni: the process etc,
kaperoni: what needs to be done
kaperoni: and they found out some laws that needs to be implemented.
kaperoni: laws they may or may not be aware of that need to get done
kaperoni: i will show u in sec which law IMO is the key law
kaperoni: "So we had a lot of brainstorming and with the representation with the private sector, civil society, we had the banker's association, we had Islamic banks, state-owned banks, non-banks, stock market was there, and we were happy to see ownership and commitment."
kaperoni: So they got all these peeps involved...the banks, everyone...sat them down
kaperoni: told them all the plan
kaperoni: and they are all committed to it
kaperoni: "And very quickly, I will just take a look of the snapshot of the action plan that their Excellencies referred to where we clearly put time bound actions specified entities, whether they're mainstream or whether it's Central Bank, whether it's a greater role of the stock market, and we're all different players, market players. We're there and endorse the action plan."
kaperoni: now this is the juice
kaperoni: "And we understand there is a security issue."
kaperoni: we all know this
kaperoni: "We understand the political situation."
kaperoni: we all know this too
kaperoni: "but we see there is some progress made and there's more than can be done"
kaperoni: they acknowledge the GOI here is coming along...more to be done
kaperoni: But here is the key....
kaperoni: or one of the keys...
kaperoni: "we're happy to step in and provide any support through the current operation, but also moving forward."
kaperoni: ok...you all see what they just said?
kaperoni: they are moving forward with the bank reforms!
kaperoni: they will help the GOI if they ask, but they are also moving forward!
kaperoni: so the Erbil, Allawi, Maliki issues are a non-issue!
kaperoni: they are not on hold!
kaperoni: "As mentioned, Iraq's financial sector is very much dominated by the banking sector which holds most of the assets. There is a sluggish change, but conversion is very low and very few instruments are traded. It needs to be revitalized."
kaperoni: well that is obvious under the circumstances
kaperoni: they need to get this RV done
kaperoni: now...here is what we are waiting on.....
kaperoni: This is what the CBI needs parliament to do
kaperoni: i need to explain something
kaperoni: everyone knows that the CBI has daily auctions
kaperoni: that will end
kaperoni: once the RV happens
kaperoni: cause that is a substitute sort of speak for the forex
kaperoni: its how the CBI makes money, and controls
kaperoni: and once the currency is international
kaperoni: all that changes and is controlled through the world markets
kaperoni: forex, torfx,etc
kaperoni: they cannot RV the currency and move to this next phase
kaperoni: or step
kaperoni: until the
kaperoni: regulatory measures are in place
kaperoni: makes sense?
kaperoni: here is a quote..
kaperoni: "To do so, there are some legal and regulatory framework issues that must be addressed. And supervision of the market must also be enhanced. For example, the Iraqi Securities Commission still work under a temporary law. It is a draft law, but that needs to be adopted quickly, also to allow then the operation and more detailed regulations."
kaperoni: And the bombshell quote...
kaperoni: "So we're still waiting for that. It is going to happen soon, we believe."
kaperoni: So we need this law passed through parliament
kaperoni: once the law is passed, shabs can rv and move forward with his plan
kaperoni: "We need the adoption of the permanent securities law to permit the public relations and securities markets. "
kaperoni: I talked to Bob,
kaperoni: securities market is all ecompassing
kaperoni: stocks, bond sales, currency
kaperoni: without this new law, they cannot have the dinar on the forex or torex
kaperoni: which is key
kaperoni: "underlying all this, we need to accelerate the transit to a market economy, a full functioning market economy so that we can actually have some more customers for the banks, good strong customers for the banks, and also if you start accelerating some of these state banks, you will, in a sense, bring life into the stock market as well."
kaperoni: So they again acknowledge the reasons and needs to hurry this up
kaperoni: it all ties together
kaperoni: "So a lot of things to do, some things in front, but we are convinced it will work."
kaperoni: well i am glad they are convinced it will work!
kaperoni: here is a piece of juice....
kaperoni: "For example, you see the payment system is one of the good, main outcomes of the reforms that took place which has been supported by U.S. Treasury and it's there operating, all banks are connected."
kaperoni: all the Iraq banks are now connected to the US Treasury!
kaperoni: that is good for us!
kaperoni: and the last bit
kaperoni: "We have not resolved all the issues relating to state intervention in the economy. There's been a lot of discussion going on and there's been decision taken, but yet, it has not come to fruition and there's some things to be done to fully implement that."
kaperoni: They are saying...we see the GOI trying to screw with us...and we told them to butt out!
kaperoni: "a decision taken"
kaperoni: love that
kaperoni: but they say...so far they have not...and we see that still in articles
kaperoni: and some things are being done to make sure..great! remove Maliki lol
kaperoni: ok done