(Darjohn post at OOMF)
TRANS; OF KAPERONI'S TRANSLATOR'S OF ALL THE NEWS OUT OF IRAQ RE;DINARS THIS WEEK!!(this clears the air re LOP)
[kaperoni] Please no typing…to prevent yourself from getting kicked while your sitting idle, periodically click the “Online” button above the list of names.
[kaperoni] Ok, lets get started.
[kaperoni] First I want to say…predictions, assesements or calculations for an RV is extremely difficult. But with that being said, we have been fairly accurate over the last 7 months.
[kaperoni] Though the RV did not happen by the end of June as we stated, I don’t think it is the CBI’s fault. Following the CBI has always been the priority, and we felt once the CBI was ready
[kaperoni] they would not hesitate to RV and provide the economic boost Iraq needs. There was no way of knowing the GOI would continue to play a part in the delay in this process. And as stated by the CBI themselves, they are done with preparations.
[kaperoni] Here is a quote from my Arabic translator last week in regard to an article that surfaced.
[kaperoni] http://dinaralert.webs.c ··· currency
[kaperoni] "The only significant thing is that the opening statement of the first article quotes Saleh and CBI as stating something along the lines of that they were under the assumption
[kaperoni] that the GOI was on the same page as the CBI with respect to quickly changing the currency/removing the 3 zeros and now it seems that they are postponing things and they feel
[kaperoni] that this would have extremely negative impacts on the economy."
Read More button on right
[kaperoni] Now we learned a few things from this interpretation. 1. The CBI apparently had some kind of deal (which explains last month when Shabibi told the public “a week to 10 days” to get this done.
[kaperoni] 2. Apparently, the Government of Iraq (GOI) has not done their part to give them the go ahead. 3. The CBI is ready and, therefore, it could happen at any moment.
[kaperoni] 4. The CBI is frustrated and delays will do damage to the economy.
[kaperoni] Now a few articles in the last few days have also come to light. Here is one of them…”Iraq is seeking to restructure the currency 30, June to June, 2011”
[kaperoni] Here is a quote…
[kaperoni] “And the impact of this project on the performance of private banks see Samurai, it would help improve the performance of banks in terms of the volume of money supply
[kaperoni] which are traded and transported, as well as in terms of security would be better.”
[kaperoni] And another from this article…”Iraqi Dinar on the way for development and change Saturday, June 25, 2011 16:37”
[kaperoni] Here is a quote…
[kaperoni] ”Saleh indicated that the issuance of categories of new cash will not affect the value of cash held by the citizen, and that the purpose of the issuance of these
[kaperoni] classes is the advancement of the Iraqi economy, and required the International Monetary Fund in its support of Iraq, a series of monetary reforms, including lifting the
[kaperoni] zeros from the local currency and to meet debts owed by Iraq. “
[kaperoni] OK these article are important….
[kaperoni] They tell us once again the urgency for implimenting this. That the banks are suffering. As well, we see with the quote from Saleh,
[kaperoni] “that the issuance of categories of new cash will not affect the value of cash (ie 3 zero notes) held by the citizen,”
[kaperoni] this confirms no LOP.
[kaperoni] Those articles are numerious and they talk about how this is needed to help boost the Iraqi economy and facilitate transactions, etc. That can only be accomplished one way…with a tradable currency of value.
[kaperoni] Here is another quote..
[kaperoni] “Saleh did say that they will remove the 3 zeros and that they would have new lower denoms starting at 100 Dinar Bills and then moving lower.”
[kaperoni] If that is largest bill, obviously the rate will be at least 1 to 1.
[kaperoni] Now lets look at today’s article…”Dinar regain glory and coins in our pockets soon”
[kaperoni] Here is a quote…
[kaperoni] "the Bank Central agreed with international organizations on the process of restructuring of the currency and support the level of the value of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currency (dollar).
[kaperoni] " He pointed out that "the process of restructuring, which will begin this week will focus on the provision of climates suitable for the lifting of three zeros from the local currency in
[kaperoni] addition to the development of the coin Mini for 500 dinars and 1,000 dinars. "
[kaperoni] and that "the level of the local currency will evolve during the next five years, according to the structure established by the Central Bank, which will address the economic gap of the part."
[kaperoni] "The current currency exchange backward and Atertqa to the level of advancement of the Iraqi economy and to address the gap and inflation during the next phase”.
[kaperoni] Now, once again we have been given a timeframe….
[kaperoni] “He pointed out that "the process of restructuring, which will begin this week”
[kaperoni] Will we see the RV this week?
[kaperoni] Many articles support we will see it at any moment or any day. There are articles from economists, banks and the CBI themselves, as I showed you
[kaperoni] above indicating that YES the RV and new notes will be seen very soon. And it may very will be “this week” as stated.
[kaperoni] Now what else does this article say?
[kaperoni] The currency will evolve over the next 5 years.
[kaperoni] This simply means that the exchange of dinar, removal of the remaining larger notes, and increase in buying power will occur over the next 5 years.
[kaperoni] We don’t care about this process. We simply all want the “program rate” to be removed and the new “initial rate” to be shown.
[kaperoni] IMO, this rate will be around 1 to 1.
[kaperoni] As I stated already...I have heard $1.27 to 1 dinar
[kaperoni] As for the coins mentioned.
[kaperoni] We know there will not be a 500 or 1000 dinar coin. That makes no sense and contradictory to what their own plan is.
[kaperoni] IMO, what this article is doing is building confidence in the coin…
[kaperoni] …to contradict the naysayers…
[kaperoni] They are telling the people of Iraq there is a value to the coin, not the actual stamped value.
[kaperoni] They are saying the coins will be equivalent to 500 dinars or 1000 dinars.
[kaperoni] And once the new rate is seen, these coins will actually have a stamped value of .50 and 1 dinar.
[kaperoni] So you can see why they are discussing these now. These coins will have value…once the RV takes place.
[kaperoni] Now lets talk about money supply.
[kaperoni] Now last year we heard that the CBI had retrieved as much as 70% of the 3 zero notes. In April and May while they were offering symposiums (we showed you pictures) to Iraqis to
[kaperoni] educate them on the process, they retrieved even more of the 3 zero notes. Not knowing exactly the numbers, we can guess that at least 80% of the 3 zero notes are now removed.
[kaperoni] This is key
[kaperoni] This is, and will cause problems, with the banking in Iraq if they do not execute the transition to the new rate and release the smaller denoms…ie RV.
[kaperoni] As well, we have physical confirmation the new smaller denominations..1/2, 1, 5, 10 etc are in the banks and ready for distribution upon the RV.
[kaperoni] We also have the outburst from the Saleh just a few days ago…
[kaperoni] translated from my Arabic interpretor as… “they were under the assumption that the GOI was on the same page as the CBI with respect to quickly changing the currency/removing the 3 zeros”
[kaperoni] Therefore, we can assume the CBI is, in fact, ready to RV the currency at a moments notice. We also can assume they are fully prepared as they have stated.
[kaperoni] When the Actual rv will take place?, well that is the question. I have a personal opinion.
[kaperoni] I watched over last weekend the documentary called “Baker Boys – Inside the Surge.”
[kaperoni] Highly recommend that you all get it. 4 hours of footage in Iraq from 2006-2008 as the US Army personnel safety their guns and become ambassadors in an attempt
[kaperoni] to curve violence and get the Sunnis and Shiites to get along. This is how the “Sons of Iraq” was created and led to where we are today.
[kaperoni] I came away from this movie incredibly appreciative of what our troops went through to get Iraq where it is today. I also feel from that movie that harmony between these two tribes is imperative.
[kaperoni] And without Allawi in a position of power in the GOI, I do not see the RV. So once Allawi has a position (Erbil agreement), I feel the RV will happen directly thereafter. And the key is to watch for this publicly announced.