Unread post by Memphis » April 18th, 2013, 12:58 am • [Post 170] from KTFA
This is a very interesting time for holders of Iraqi dinar. The news that we received 24 hours ago was a game changer for us all. I am not the expert on "all things dinar" but I want to offer some thoughts here that may place our current position into some better perspective for folks...
Let me start by stating [for members who remember my work(s) from 2012] that I have not be absent from our investment! I daily read the news articles but have relied heavily on others to source them and feed them to me directly for reading.
As the summer of 2012 came to a close I became of the opinion that there was no need for me to spend hours (and hours) breaking down all the news articles BECAUSE the CBI had already made clear their intent and very little of import was coming out of Baghdad that added substantially to my model of things.
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My energy then shifted quickly to becoming a student of things from a much larger perspective. I have learned (and continue to learn) much in the realm of finance and the interaction of global events that are happening daily!
In large measure I have attempted to be a support to Eagle1 in his studies and efforts. The man is a treasure and in many respects I consider my relationship with him to be that of an armor bearer.
Frank paid me a huge compliment tonight that I appreciated but the reality (in my mind) is that anything that I can offer to support Regner and his needs is my priority for the day and I will gladly remain in the shadows!
Being placed out in front of the group is not my calling and anytime I open my mouth it is in hopes to help others see things more clearly.
Regarding the news from Baghad of the lower denomination bills coming into circulation here is what I believe:
We have searched (desperately at times) for evidence that the CBI is about to re-price their currency. The TIMING of this event is what we have all been in search of.
With this reality in focus, consider all the events that we have spoken to for so long...
The 2012 budget...will it have the rate? The 2013 budget....will IT have the rate?
Shabibi is out. Shabibi is in Aman Jordan in meetings? hmmm
Shabibi may be brought back into Baghdad the 3rd week of April under heavy security?
The Kuwaiti PM is coming the Baghdad the 1st week of April? O, he is delaying now till May?
Kuwait is ready to "turn the page" and move on with their brothers in Iraq?
I could make this list SOOOooo long that no one would finish it. You get the point. We have spoken to and speculated on everything from A-Z and then Z-A and then we've inverted it all and speculated on it once more and (in my mind) the sum total of it all comes down to what we learned 24 hours ago...
Keep in mind here that this most recent news was not intended for our hearing! The CBI has made no formal announcement of ANYTHING. For goodness sake, their Gov of the Central Bank isn't even in the country this week!
To attempt and explain my point here as to why THIS news exceeds all other lets recall that the CBI has told us that their project would be implemented in 'phases'. Remember that? It was big news starting about 18 mo ago.
Each phase would be a marker of sorts. The last phase to which we are looking is that of re-pricing their currency...the RV. The RV will be preceded by the RD. WS has been our greatest source of understanding this complex discussion. The RD (in my mind) is best understood by us as the introduction of the lower denominations.
The presence of these new bills (200 dinars and lower) is a manifestation of the re-denomination (RD) of the dinar. This step adds no value to the currency tho. What it DOES is it tells us that the CBI has moved into the final phase!
The circulation of the lower bills into their daily commerce is PROOF that the CBI has moved into the final phase. We could have no better evidence of this and with Turki (acting CBI Gov) in the United States this week it seems to me a near certainty that Dr. Shabibi is in fact back in the CBI and he is MOST busy getting about 'business'!
note: I was informed last Friday to L@@K for Shabibi to be brought into Baghdad 'under the cover of night' (my words) and this immediately shaped my focus in studying news. In effect I put my 'Shabibi goggles" on.
What I soon noticed was a conspicuous ABSENCE in the news articles last weekend! Did you catch it? The CBI always (and without fail) gives great credit to the person who is speaking.
I have never known the CBI to make a statement that did not state: "Lt. Gov Saleh said..." or "CBI Gov Shabibi said..." or "acting Gov CBI Turki said..." and YET last weekend they released multiple "3 zero articles" (that effectively all said the same thing) and yet not ONCE did it make any reference to WHO said this or WHO said that.
The fact that these articles seemed to originate from the Parlimentary Finance Committee meant little to me. Those guys were all falling over themselves a year ago in support of the CBI's "strategic project". My point here (as I digress) is that the lack of authorship?
I think it tipped their hand that someone behind the scenes ( I wonder who) was directing all these press releases and we already know it wasn't Turki, the guys been livin it up in New York this week!
So, when we factor this amazing development (lower denomination bills in circulation) into our model and consider that Kuwait's "tone" is EXACTLY what we want...they are speaking with a confidence that Iraq is (or has) checked off all the boxes....
The news from all fronts has been 'pointing' to the near term...
The budget was denominated in Billions of dinar with the conspicuous designation of (x1000) beside it.
The U.S banks have been briefed that "it's coming soon..." ( I assure you these sources 'check out', these ppl are sincere in their reports to us)...
As of Apr15 the CBI auctions have effectively choked off 85-90% of the supply of USD for circulation...
I am rambling now....
The news from 24 hrs ago is HUGE. Does it guarantee the RV tonight? No. Does it speak to the TRUTH that the RV is close? Without any reservation..."Yes".
We have had MUCH evidence that Iraq wants to/needs to/ and will add value to their currency.
Their neighbors in Kuwait are likely demanding it as a pre-condition, the WTO has stated it is a marker for them to gain full member status, they have spoken to this as a mechanism to twart inflation, they have spoken to the STRONG desire to end 'dollarization' (the preferred use of USD in Iraq for commerce), etc, etc.
They ARE going to add value to the dinar and it is likely to be very soon. I do not know the outside time limits here. I wish I did! I do expect to see it within the next week tho. If I am wrong on this point then many smart ppl are also wrong.
It OUGHT to happen soon, to have these small denominations circulating without the exchange rate being increased is not a long term scenario. Why? Because it accomplishes nothing. There is a purpose to this and that purpose will manifest....soon.
p.s. Those who know me best know that I LOVE to teach! I am always excited when someone asks a question such that I sometimes need to be told when to stop talking!
So my offer here is this....if anyone wants my opinion on something:
1) post it here in the main thread (for all to benefit)
2) drop me a PM with the post #
I will commit to check daily and see if there's anything that I can contribute. Perhaps in doing this I can field at least a couple of Regner's daily questions...the guy get's cranky when he doesn't have his naps...
A caution tho, if it's of a nature such that we can't discuss it openly in the forum for all to profit?
Don't expect to hear much back!