Miskebam: Dong Revaluation Theory from cXc
I would like to present to you. . . MY theory. . .
#1 Not near as many people have bought into VND as in the IQD, they have PURPOSEFULLY kept speculation down, and what better way than to DEVALUE your currency a couple of times and then create what looks like negative numbers and cover up how much you have in foreign currency reserves. . . just tell them that its low.
Keeping speculation low, and trying to increase the confidence of your citizens in their own currency is not an easy task. So beginning of 2011 they had to FORCE the confidence by making simple transactions in their PREFERRED currency illegal, and then drawing them in by making USD deposits low in rates, and DONG deposit rates HIGH . . .
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#2 The foreign currency reserve for vietnam was one of the issues because it was too low to support an increase in value (or so they say)
By making the USD illegal for trade, arresting a few people for using it, to set an example, making dong rates more attractive, they were flocking to the banks to turn their USD in, and scarf up the dong. The USD then goes into the reserve. This is mainly where you have seen the incremental increase of the exchange rate stem from.
#3 The trade deficit was high mainly because of GOLD export
So what did they do, an article came out about a week ago saying that they are going to remove GOLD from the import/export list, which will narrow the gap on the deficit and FAST.
#4 Manufacturing and export are on a STEEP rise
Articles every day . . . not to mention we know that alot of China's manufacturing is going across to Vietnam (China is probably not just allowing this, but promoting it) Not just manufacturing, but their minerals and rare earths are being eyed, and they are cutting deals on oil everyother day.
#5 USD has been made illegal for daily transacations
Speaks for itself, which leaves DONG and GOLD. Arresting people lets them know that hoarding USD is not a good idea, as they can have criminal charges for using it, attempts at de-dollarizing in the past sent them running for GOLD. . .
#6 GOLD has been made illegal for daily transactions
Another one that speaks for itself, All gold transactions are to be completed by June 30th! (taken from article)If you cant use USD and GOLD . . . wow that only leaves DONG. This is where you will begin to see similarities in the situation in Iraq regarding, the only currency you can use having way too many zeros at the end. Funny too, and not saying this is true, but SUPPOSEDLY someone has a contact inside SBV, and last Sunday they started issuing lower denoms.
#7 As of July 1st they will limit the amount of VND that will be allowed out of Vietnam
Very interesting article about this, seems that it will be illegal to take a certain amount of VND out of Vietnam, and also they will check your foreign currency coming INTO the country. Love the date of July 1st and I will tell you why now. . .
#8 Per intel, Iraq will RV, and 20 days later Vietnam will RV.
Also per intel, the IQD was set to release with a new rate on 6/28/11, its possible that the release was not to the public but to the USTres. 20 days later, Vietnam is set to release with a new rate which puts it around July 18th.
Why 20 days? Lets speculate shall we?
#1 ALONG time ago, it was told to me that SDR's were issued to third world, and emerging countries, and they were told to trade these for IQD, so that when they revalued it would bring an increase to the country.
#2 IF Vietnam bought in, and they hold IQD, and IF their foreign currency reserve is low. What do you think is going to happen when the IQD revalues. Would it not add a MOTHER LOAD to their reserve?
#3 Keep in mind, not many bought into VND, and because of the DEVALUING of the dong over the last couple of years, alot of people were terribly sceptical of the dong. NOW, this is where everyone goes, AWESOME!!! I WILL CASH IN MY DINAR AND PUT IT ALL IN DONG!!!
#4 Think again. Iraq RV's on the last day of June on the first day of July Vietnam starts checking your amount of cash at the border. TOO LATE!
#5 The 20 days gets Vietnam the opportunity to transfer their IQD to USD, get their affairs in order, and increase the value of their currency, because now they have the backing for it. After all, its only a small amount of people that hold the VND, so that gets paid off, and THIS brings a WHOLE new meaning to the word EMERGING ECONOMY.
I did not even touch on CPI which is right on target, INFLATION which is putting alot of pressure on right now, not just in Vietnam, but China and all Asian countries, and if you read the article on China today . . . they are allowing the YUAN to rise to curtail rampant inflation . . . The OMO, Government Bonds, Real Estate, THE WTO case study that gave them GUIDELINES that they have been following to a T since 2007 . . . so much happening over there and MOST ALL MOVING IN THE POSITIVE DIRECTION. . . Remember too, these people already have a government in place and are not under sanctions . . . so this is a TOTAL DIFFERENT SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES
I just wanted to give a little run down of what I have gleened through MOSTLY articles, papers, plans and studies, and as of the other day a little bit of info people call INTEL. . .
I been following this for the last two years. . . shut down during DEVALUATION time, and picked back up when things started making a turn in January. Leaps and bounds!
I PRAY WHAT I HAVE RECEIVED IS ACCURATE ON THE INTEL, but I KNOW what I have reported above from articles is COLD HARD FACT!
I BELIEVE ITS HERE!
P.S. the 20 day gap from RV of IQD to RV of VND lines up with some body else's intel that so many counties were going to revalue and then a bunch more 2 weeks later. . . maybe its because they need the IQD for backing just as I suspect Vietnam does.
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