UU8548 – “Be Careful What You Ask For” by Mnt Goat -- emailed to Dinar Recaps
This is going to be a great news letter today. A little long so grab a cup of hot coffee, get your reading glasses, find a comfortable chair, sit back and relax.
There are many topics to cover and it is all related to the process of the revaluation of the Iraq dinar. Please be patient, sometimes you have to break a few eggs before you can make the omelet…..lol…
I will try to make the needed connections for you as much as I am allowed to tell the story.
Today's news letter, as in all my news letters, is a continuation of the ongoing saga of the IQD RV process. Please refer back to my last news letter of 12/8 as this news letter is a continuation of this news.
Many of you keep asking me why the RV is still consistently being held up. Maliki is essentially gone and a new government is now in place but still no RV. Once again we have witnessed this over and over especially in the last couple weeks right up until now. Why?
There are many reasons and I will try to explain some of them that I can talk more liberally about.
I know for a fact that if all went well in Iraq this past week we should have seen this RV. There was a plan laid out by the USA and the CBI. However the Iraqi government did not complete its part of the plan and so it simply will no happen according to this old plan.
This is how the plan was laid out for this week. This weekend the RV being announced, first in Iraq (showing up on the CBI website) then the new rate going live in Iraq on 12/22.
Many of the groups in the USA would then have been allowed to continue exchanging through the two weeks of the holiday season up until the end of December.
The 800#s were to be activated on 12/18 to begin appointments with exchanges beginning on 12/22. This was the plan and it was not executed.
If you do the math you can see that there was a 10 day delay built into the rollout schedule from when Iraq RV’d and the official USA roll out. I do not know all the details or the concerns as to the necessity for the 10 day delay.
So today is Saturday and still no 800#s- What happened?
My contact in Iraq was informed by the Finance Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, in a news briefing as late as Thursday 12/18, and he said that the ministerial committee in charge of preparing the budget had just completed its work and will provide the general budget in its final form to the Council of Ministers next Monday 12/22.
You can see in order execute this planned rollout the USA needed this budget done by 12/18 as previously scheduled. So now the plan changes.
So what is the new plan?
Also Ahmed Sarhan, Parliamentary finance committee confirmed on Tuesday 12/16 , that the general budget for the year 2015 Act will reach the House of Representatives later this month, while pointing out that it was agreed to reduce budget expenditures to reduce the deficit ratio.
The head of the parliament Saleem al-Jubouri confirmed also this week, the House of Representatives are ready to hold an extraordinary session in the event of the arrival of the budget to him, pointing out that the government faces challenges in this area and thus may not get a quorum as needed for the session voting.
All of these late budget adjustments/modification have messed up the timetable of the USA for the final phases of the RV rollout plan but be patient.
We all have to take the punches and roll with them. I believe we are still in a very, very close proximity to the final phase completion. The plan now just has to be adjusted a bit for the timing.
So to make a long storie short, everything is now pushed out. Because of the holidays I do not believe we will not see many more group exchanges going on and what is remaining will go with the final announcement and general public. This is being planned out right now as I write this news letter.
A new timetable should be forthcoming soon. I will attempt to bring it to you when I get it. I am hearing they still need to have the RV done once the Iraq 2015 budget is voted on. They are still targeting the end of 2014. They need to open the budget immediately after passing it in parliament.
Remember this all was originally supposed to be done prior to the end of December 2014 but we see it is now overflowing into January 2015. This is not a good thing. It can not overflow to far into 2015 for obvious reasons. I am still hearing a target of very early 2015.
Seems the early part of a new year is the best time for this RV if we look at the past target dates. So we can probably not expect anything until then.
Is anything done on time in Iraq ? ……lol…..
Every year Iraq struggles to get their budget completed. Their fiscal year ends on Oct 31st. This year is much different however. This year they are facing deficits due to the war and the money stolen due to Maliki corruption.
There is an entire book of projects they need to complete and fund. Sure they have great wealth but you can’t spend oil it has to be brought to market and sold first. The ever changing recent drops in oil prices is causing a constant strain on having to readjust their budget figures over and over again.
The good news is Iraq is now making it public that they will open the oil spigot come 2015 to over 500,000 barrels oil for their annual production. This is amazing !
We can expect yet lower oil prices in the future. Some are saying that this is counterproductive to them since prices will only drop even lower – good old supply and demand economics.
Yes this is true however the government of Iraq can’t control the other oil suppliers and thus have to raise output to increase revenues since revenues now are lower per barrel. Does this make sense? OPEC now had taken a backseat in allowing this free oil flow. Just why is this all being done this way?
Remember too in the past the IMF and the USA reviewed their budget and then allocated the DUI funding to support it, as appropriate. Since Iraq was not allowed to manage their own revenues from oil for fear of funding terrorists or buying weapons of mass destruction.
We see from the old Maliki administration that this is just what may have happened too. For 2015 there is no legal grounds for this process to continue since Iraq is now a sovereign nation.
So how does the USA keep tabs on their spending? This is a simple matter. They force them to outline their revenue sources and expenditures (using a budget as the means to do it) and they force them to make it legal (a vote in parliament) so they adhere to it.
Remember the USA is still in part micro managing Iraq since they are the new kid on the block when it comes to democracy and budgets.
They now motivate them to do this all by dangling the RV carrot in front of them. If the USA does not like something in the budget it will never reach parliament and is negotiated at the level in the council of ministers. This too has caused many delays in getting the budget prepared.
As we can see from my explanation above the Iraq 2015 budget is on everyone’s mind these days. Many think this is the one event we are all waiting on to get our RV. Well I am here to tell you today it is not but certainly has an indirect impact. How can it not? Sometimes they create chaos to bring us order in the end.
They (meaning Iraq) are now simply telling us another delay tactic from announcing any completed budget until the time is ripe and they want to push out the final part of the Iraq economic reforms that of bringing back their currency to international status.
Remember they have to tell their citizens something since they keep announcing these reforms will be done in the coming days.
I will attempt to explain to you what is going on behind the scenes and not being told in the news media to us. When I listen to the news media on this topic the information is very, very superficial in nature. What you are being told in part is what I explained above.
What is reality is much different than their perception. What I am about to tell you now is also part of the situation. Listen up! These are the other reasons for the delay.
A Bit of History
In 2012 we witnessed an announcement by the CBI of their intentions to RV early 2013. The new coins too were supposed to be introduced in Sept 2012. Remember?
The Maliki GOI interfered so then once again delayed the process. After this delay we heard a year later in the fall of 2013 the intentions again to follow up and complete the project to delete the zeros in early 2014.
Then in late 2013 we witnessed the takeover of the CBI and once again Dr Shabibi’s plans for an RV were postponed indefinitely as announced by the new governor of the CBI.
Dr Shabibi had all intentions of rolling this RV out on these scheduled timeframes during these two timetables. The CBI itself has just recently told us these facts in recently published articles so this is not rumor or conjecture.
Remember there are two plans and two RV timetables that must coincide together. One timetable is that of the USA since they hold the POWER to run the software to initiate the final stages of the rollout to the global exchanges and banks. The other timetable is the plan of the CBI and their intentions. The CBI alligns the RV to the political and security situations. There simply must be security in both areas.
The problem is the two plans are not always in sync and often clash as we saw in 2012 and 2013. Our intel here from the USA UST tell us of the USA plan, we then hear the CBI plans on what news articles we get. Some of us have excellent CBI contacts to help us out.
As good intel providers to the dinar investor community we are responsible to try to piece together these plans and sync them up. This does not always happen and so we are left hanging repeatedly when we are only told of the USA plan and do not see, understand or appreciate what is really happening in Iraq and its impact on the USA rollout plan.
Thus the USA plan anticipates certain events in Iraq and adjust their plan for the RV rollout accordingly. Intel then tells us any day or everyday for the RV. Is the UST then lying to us?
No – I believe these sources are telling us the current plan. The operative word here is “current”. Do you get it – the “current” plan.
So then when the RV does not happen according to the “current” plan we are disappointed. Maybe if those responsible for this roller coaster ride would only take the time to read the articles and get some real contacts in the CBI they would know and have a sense that the two plans are not syncing up and thus do not announce the USA plan to us to get us all hyped up.
These intel providers could then also get to understand Iraq politics a little better instead of just regurgitating what the UST tells them to say.
This is much of this constant problem we are having with this everyday and any day hype we keep hearing. Especially during this time of the holiday season this is the last thing we need, more disappointment.
Now we see this happening once again. This time the USA has issues and demands from Iraq concerning their budget. The USA also had other issues of their own budget approval (I will explain all this later).
Yet the current UST plan is being shared with everyone on these dinar info calls. Why? Maybe there is some responsibility to be held accountable by these people who are spreading this RV news without really studying the situation in Iraq themselves. It is not fair to all of us and it is sad.
I know we can’t stop listening to their calls since the news seems addictive and we are junkies. Right? Can you stop listening? Someday we know that the UST plan and the CBI plan will sync up and this one time they will be correct. This is the day we hope for. This is why we keep listening.
The USA Budget Bill of 2015
Okay many of you are now saying how in hell does this impact the Iraqi RV? It does and let me explain. Let me start by saying that the USA is now once again trying to pay Peter by taking from Paul. Do you know what I mean by this?
Many financial analysts have been telling us for decades that some day over the horizon the USA government would not be able to pay even the interest on the national debt since all of its incoming revenues would be spent on just paying the interest on the national debt and nothing left for anything else. Could this day now be here?
Without the USA budget where is the funding for the exchanges going to come from?
Yes – I too know most of the public exchanges will be just electronic deposits to new bank accounts but eventually you will be spending the money such as for businesses, charity work, new cars, homes, annuities, investment portfolios, etc…yes?..no?
So again I ask - Where is all this money going to come from initially for these products and services? The banks are not just going to give out FREE money. The oil credits are not yet revenue until the oil is sold so this will not happen until sometime in the future.
The answer is in the funding programs the IMF and the UST has been working on since 2003. There are many of these programs and some are very creative. Many of these programs are now fully funded and waiting for transfer to the banks and so yet another sign we are very close the RV exchanges.
So the U.S. Congress has given its final approval for a massive $1.1 trillion government spending plan for most of 2015, ending a threat that the federal government could shut down again if the legislation was not passed.
The measure, approved late Saturday 12/13 in the Senate by 56-40 vote after a vote Thursday by the House of Representatives, funds the government through the current budget year ending next September. The bill now heads to the White House where President Barack Obama has said he will sign it into law.
Many will tell you this did not matter for the RV and they would be wrong. I explained to you why it matters. No budget, no funding of some of the needed programs. Do you understand?
Can you see now how last weekend since all this lined up in the USA the Iraq budget schedule too all of sudden was announced it would be completed by 12/18. Can see now why the UST conistently keeps holding up the RV.
Frank Dodd Act
This brings us to the inter-governmental fighting going on now between ploitical parties over provisions in the 2015 budget bill for the USA. One side wanted to strictly apply the Frank Dodd Act provisions and allow in country “bail ins” and the other side apposed.
They are slick and tacked on this provision to the budget bill as a remedy for revenue generation. So if you vote for the budget you are automatically voting for a “bail in” to help pay for the additional expenditures.
This was required by the Federal Reserve if any more loans were to be granted to deficit spending in 2015. When will all this madness end?
Comments may be made at the end of Part 2 Thank You