Thanks GeorgeH for sending this to us today.
UU5523 – “ Quick Update – Kurdistan Issues“ by Mnt Goat
Today’s news is a continuing saga about the Iraq dinar revaluation. If you have not done so already please read my news letter from 6/12 since this is yet more news on this topic.
In my last news letter I have included some tips on how to better read and understand the news coming out of Iraq. I did this in an attempt to answer the many questions I received concerning this matter. I hope my responses helped everyone. Please try to gather and read the news directly and do not trust just the news broadcast from any of these "intel gurus".
I know I sound like a broken record once again but I can assure you, until there is the needed physical security and political stability in Iraq there will be no currency revaluation.
We begin yet another week and so we wait and see what this week will bring us. As I have said in the past if you follow this saga long enough you can almost predict the next move by Iraq. The difficult part is predicting the timing.
Today is Monday June 15th and still no RV. Yes it is JUNE already and the month is half over. Many are now saying that there will be an RV by the beginning of Ramadan (just 2 days from now). Really? I thought you also said we would never reach June without an RV?
I have to laugh once again at these statements since they based their assumptions mostly on a totally misinterpreted translation of a speech that Abadi gave to the citizens of Iraq wishing them prosperity and abundance during Ramadan, which begins on June 17th. Many have translated this speech instead to mean “prosperity and abundance through completion of the economic reforms on or by Ramadan”. Is this not ridiculous? They then base their entire last couple conference calls on this news even though it is total nonesense.
As we know Ramadan is a time of fasting but it is also a time or rejoicing and celebrating. Many gifts are shared. So it would be very fitting for the prime minister of the country to wish his citizens good tidings during this holy season.
So everyone desperately needs to take off their RV glasses….lol….especially these intel gurus. Everything is not about the RV.
So all I have to say to all this silliness is don’t wait up too long at night searching for news of an RV this week. Once again much hype made about nothing as articles and speeches are once again misinterpreted and become the main focus of passing out wrong information to the dinar community. When will this kind of irresponsible intel gathering end?
I can guarantee it is not going to happen by Ramadan and there is a strong possibility it may not even happen during Ramadan unless the three presidents (or main leaders incuding Masoun, Abadi and Jubouri) can somehow reconcile the differences between the Kurdistan and the Baghdad government and they can get this security problem under control.
We are also know we are about to see the battle begin to retake Mosul so this final part (as some believe) of defeating ISIS has not yet taken place either. I want to remind you that it is just not defeating ISIS on the ground that is the most important but also to remedy Iraq’s security issues and to put in place measures that will PREVENT such takeover by any terrorist organization or militia in the future. These measures are in the laws that need to passed and implemented (such as in the National Guard law and Amnesty law).
I have also said the Iranian militias along with Maliki and his goons (of what is left of them) must also be dealt with so they can no longer interfere with the reconciliation efforts and it can be completed.
So this week out pops an article and once again it tells us of this news. It is all good since Barzani (leader of Kurdistan) make an agreement to resolve all obstacles between getting Erbil fully implemented. I have stated many times in past news letters that there is the need to have a FULLY IMPLEMENTED Erbil agreement prior to taking Iraq fully out of sanctions. This would mean finally completing Article 8 of the UN charter to give Iraq back its international status to its currency.
This article is very interesting because it is also telling us of some of the “other” issues Kurdistan is facing too. I believe these issues by themselves will not prevent an RV but indirectly can hold up the Kurds from returning back to parliament to vote on the needed laws. Without them there can be no needed quorum thus no voting on the needed laws to complete reconciliation.
We also know that the parliament leader (one of the three presidents) Salim Al-jubouri is currently visiting Washington who met on Friday with-us President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. So I hardly believe there will be a main voting session on these laws this week or even before Ramadan begins.
These other Kurdistan issues stem around the large numbers of displaced people who fled to the Kurdistan region for refuge from ISIS, and the need in the Iraq government to become a more active stakeholder and to help with funding assistance from Federal and International sources. That Kurdistan can not continue to bare the brunt of the financial burden of these refugee camps.
If you read my news letter from 6/10 you will also know that there is brand new HCL law dealing with how Kurdistan is going to handle its sale of oil to private buyers for amounts above and beyond agreed quotas to meet the Federal budget. So this is a major obstacle to reconciliation with the Kurds. The draft law is now under construction.
Infallible and Barzani agree to remove obstacles between Baghdad and Erbil
President Fuad Masum and Kurdish regional President Massoud Barzani agreed on the need to remove obstacles to the implementation of agreements between Baghdad and Erbil and reliable continuous dialogue, with the detection of a project for national reconciliation in cooperation with the three presidencies and the various forces and political parties.
He said a presidential statement He received morning, that infallible During his visit Kurdistan region discussed with Barzani overall security and political situation on the Iraqi and regional arena and threats of terrorist attacks on Iraq and the Kurdistan region and the region..
The two sides praised the role of the security forces, the army and the Peshmerga popular crowd and the sons of the tribes in the face of terrorist Daash gangs and consolidation of security and peace of mind and help the displaced.
In another aspect of the meeting, it was stressed the need for the convergence of views between all parties to ensure the success of the draft comprehensive national reconciliation, as well as to join efforts to remove the obstacles to the implementation of the terms of agreements between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government to resolve the outstanding issues and to rely on the ongoing dialogue between the two sides.
The statement noted that the situation of displaced was a meeting axes, where the two sides stressed the importance of working to alleviate their suffering and to redouble efforts in order to provide the necessary requirements to them, especially in Kurdistan to accommodate the large numbers of displaced people who went to the region, and the need for stakeholders in government to make Federal and international organizations greater efforts to provide a decent life for the displaced until their return to their home areas ».
Furthermore, the President Fuad Masum announced that he has a legitimate national reconciliation runs it in cooperation with the three presidencies and the various political forces and parties to form a preparatory committee of the various parties and components to start its implementation.
[Central Bank Update]
It is confirmed that Ali Aler is still the Central Bank governor not Sinan al-Shibibi.
Also an article that came out this week by Sinan al-Shibibi himself and in it he is talking about the independence of the Central Bank and how actions of the Finance ministry and Parliament is interfering with its ability to curve inflation and restore economic growth in Iraq.
It is an excellent article and it tells us that Shabibi is advising behind the scenes, but this is his ONLY role. So for now he is still not back in office officially. But as I have said many times we will not see an RV until he is reinstated officially and is once again the “official” governor of the Central Bank of Iraq.
He must have the independence he needs to turn this country around. One major sticking point with the UN and the USA is that Iraq must adhere to its constitution. Remember who own the CBI thus who controls the money really has all the control. They will eventually get their way.
Contrary to what many believe Shabibi is NOT RETIRING. He is active and fully desires to come back to work as the head of the CBI. Iraq is his native country and he is a patriot. So please no more of these ignorant rumors on this topic without facts to back it up.
The responsibility of the central bank is explicitly mentioned in the Iraq Constitution.
Founded the Iraqi Central Bank independent bank under the law issued on the sixth of March 2004, as an independent body, is responsible for maintaining price stability and the implementation of monetary policy, including policies exchange rates and being sessions daily for buying and selling currencies.
I find it funny too how just today an MP for the National Coalition Kadhim al-Shammari, asked the Central Bank of Iraq and the administration of Supreme Audit to clarify the reason for the increase is natural in the exchange rates of the dollar against the local currency in the market.
Seems they don’t want to give the CBI its independence needed to do its job in order to help the economy however they keep blaming the CBI for the economic issues and want explanations. This is only one of many MPs who have asked this same question in the last couple days.
Since the third article from today is very long I will only quote certain sections from it. My goal in presenting this article’s information to you today is the hope that you will realize the importance of having an independent Central Bank and what the lack of this independence is doing to Iraq’s economy today and thus I feel is preventing many of the future projects to continue including the “project to delete the zeros” (getting our RV).
This is why there should not be a shadow of a doubt in anyone’s mind that we will NOT SEE AN RV unless Shabibi is reinstated to the CBI. I have said this before and I will stand fast on this fact.
So here are passages from this article below:
Thus, says Shabibi, “the central bank has lost its independence and became a bow to the decisions of the government and parliament.
This loss of autonomy has several caveats most important that the central bank will be subject to the instructions of the government, which will be reflected in the Bank's policies and therefore, the central bank will not be able to adopt the goal of reducing inflation in earnest. To make matters worse, that government spending is inherently inflationary result of the delay in the implementation of projects.
And loss of independence would lead to the creditors to look to the central bank's money as government funds, becomes a target for creditors, and this is an important issue should be discussed with creditors and lawyers Iraq.
The loss of independence means that the central bank to adopt monetary policies in line with the policy of the government, but the government's policies may not fit with the Central Bank Law. In other words, it does not focus on the fight against inflation does not give due importance to the goal of economic stability.
The central bank has weakened administratively from the government, and often tried to governments to impose its policies on the central bank, including the former prime minister tried to borrow from the central bank which was rejected because the bank law prevents him from it, and ended up the attack on the central bank and the arrest of many of the finest staff
One manifestation of overtaking on independence is to waive it on the Central Bank reserves. Some repeating that this could be justified because the reserve exceeds the currency in circulation and in bank one and a half times. These justifications for the government to gradually dominate the central bank resources.
We must not forget that Iraq falls within the group of countries which are in transition from totalitarian regimes to open democratic systems provide the free economy. This group of countries undergoing many changes in the economy opens up (as states formerly the Soviet Union), but a lot of these countries, its economy was characterized by the transfer of capital abroad. In the case of Iraq also encourages this transition because of the conditions of violence and instability experienced by the country.
Iraq has NOT YET BECOME A SAFE PLACE BRINGS INVESTMENT, we need large national efforts to ensure stability and attract investment”.
When will the follow their constitution and allow the CBI to work independently?
LINK TO PART 2